Opinion
Demographic threat a myth
Yoram Ettinger
Published: 09.02.06, 14:00
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26 Talkbacks for this article
1. relocate arabs
Israel Zwick ,   nyc   (02.09.06)
Israel needs to hold on to Judea and Samaria for security and future population growth. Israel should quietly place ads in Arab newspapers offering $50,000 and free transportation to any Arab family in YESHA that agrees togo to another country and not return. Then there will no longer be a demographic problem. If only 20% accept the offer, Jewish dominance will be ensured.
2. Excellent Article!
Dudu ,   Kfar Sava   (02.09.06)
3. 67 per cent isn't much of a majority
Karen R ,   Maryland   (02.09.06)
In fact, it's only about two thirds of the total population - one sixth away from equality. Demography is not an exact science, as the article very well shows. So how can we trust this number, either? And how fast can that one-sixth "majority" be erased if circumstances change just slightly?
4. Even If There Is a Demographic Threat
Jerry ,   NYC, USA   (02.09.06)
It is long-term, if at all, and not reason to be pulling out of the large swaths of the Land and turning it over to Chaostan, Hamastan, Al Qaedastan, etc. Allowing a lawless terror state within rocket range is sheer lunacy.
5. Unnoticed threat of much greater proportion
Uri   (02.09.06)
800,000 Israelis in the United States. The Arabs don't even need to have anymore babies, Jews are leaving. In no time Arabs will be a majority - already 20% of Israel's Jewish population has left.
6. vote
dave ,   herzliya   (02.09.06)
If there is no dem. threat, and we're going to permanently keep Yehuda and Shimron, are we ready to give all the residents of Israel the vote? Or just the Jewish ones in certain zones?
7. to #5: 800,000 Israelis in the US
philip ,   Miami, USA   (02.09.06)
Looks like a large number but it does not say much in fact. How many of the 800,000 are Gentile Russians who came to Israel to escape misery in Russia but already new that it would only be as a mean to reach the US?
8. We are not a majority at all...
Ilan ,   Ariel   (02.09.06)
If you count the Arabs living in Cario and Amman and Damascus. They are just as much part of the demographic threat as are the Arabs in Gaza, Ramallah, Nablus and Kalkilyia... The entire demographic issue is rubbish and semantically created threat. You don't count people as citizens who are living under another authority. So any Arab living in the PA is no more associated to Israel than a citizen of Jordan or Egypt.
9. Outstanding
sk ,   USA   (02.09.06)
My only question is why earlier versions of these results haven't been publicized years ago. Sofer is no academic, he's a political hack.
10. Wasn't there a 67% majority before the Gaza retreat?
Matt ,   UK   (02.09.06)
11. Elections
Danny ,   Dimona   (02.09.06)
You need look no further than the PA elections to learn the real numbers. Approximately 1 million voters (everyone over 18) and another at best 50% under 18, lleaves for at best 1.5 million Palestinians (including ~1-200,000 in East Jerusalem). Cut off half in Gaza and that leaves a maximum 750,000 Palestinians in the West Bank and Gaza. Cut out East Jerusalem and there are only around 500,000 Arabs in the West Bank. Compared that to250,000 Jewish Settlers and growing, there isn't much reason to leave the West Bank anymore, is there?
12. Ettinger's confused logic
A friend of Israel ,   Queens, New York   (02.10.06)
As a "right wing" Jew and as someone who has personally met Mr. Ettinger and heard him speak (he is wonderful and usually right on) I am sad to say that Mr. Ettinger's article is not reassuring. If we follow the logic, since Israel has a Jewish majority we can annex all of the West Bank and not fear losing the Holy Land to the Arabs through the democratic process. The logic is flawed. Firstly, let us assume Jews are indeed 67% of the total population, as Ettinger suggests. What will we do with the Arab 33% of the population, which will want equal rights? Does Israel give them equal rights? Will 33% of the Knesset be Arab, then? Will 33% of the budget be directed to Arabs? Or will the 67% push their will on the 33% and deny them rights? That would amount to nothing less than the dictatorship of the majority and dictatorships are not good governments. Secondly, I find it very hard to believe that the Arab population will not grow at a much greater rate than the Jewish population. 67% can turn into 50% in less than 50 years. Like number 3 posted, 67% is not much of a majority. As much as I would love Israel to annex the West Bank, I am fearful of a fifth column that is comprised of 33% of the population. Maybe Transfer is the answer, maybe only the Mashiach has the answer, but Ettinger does not.
13. How can anyone think forced "relocating" is an option
Chris ,   Toronto   (02.10.06)
Do you actually think that any other country including the US would support that? Maybe Israel Zwick's plan might work, since it depends on the Pals leaving themselves. But what about forced evacuation? Nobody would stand by and let nearly a million people be violently expelled from an area which the International world and even the US says has a right to live there. Any talk of forced evictions of Pals is useless, it would keep a Jewish majority in Israel but it would also create an isolated Israel. They would be wiped off the diplomatic map. What good would that do for Israel. The best bet is to define the border and maybe even follow Israel Zwick's idea and offer some of them money to leave contentious areas.
14. Come Visit Us
Johnny Weintraub ,   Sugar Land, Texas US   (02.10.06)
Yoram Ettinger was formerly the Israeli Counsel in Houston, Texas. Yoram, come back and visit us! We miss you and your guitar!
15. Send the Arabs to France
Cal ,   Brooklyn,Ny   (02.10.06)
16. population explosion among relig Jews
David ,   NJ, USA   (02.10.06)
No reference is given to chareidi population explosion. Whether or not politically correct, it has to have a significant effect on the comparative population growth. Maybe someone can address this question without any preconceived "political" axe to grind. Any thoughts?
17. #13 How can anyone think forced "relocating" is an option
Kyle ,   Southpark, CO, USA   (02.10.06)
Sharon did, and now Olmert does, as long as it applies to Jews only.
18. Reply #3
Daniel ,   Israel   (02.10.06)
The vast majority of Israelis who emigrated to the US did that in the 1970s and 1980s when the economic situation in Israel was difficult. Just like all people Israelis want to enjoy a high standard of living and political stability. The economic boom in Israel in the 1990s brought several thousands of Israelis from the US back home to Israel. Despite all current problems today that need to be solved, Israel is today a quite affluent country with an enormous economic growth potential. Israels GDP per capita grows much faster than the one of US and European countries and it is therefore only a matter of perhaps 10 years before Israel will completely catch up with most other industrialized countries. When Israel will be able to offer the same standard of living as the US a great part of the Israelis in the US will return to Israel. Besides, there is no other place lika home.
19. 16 haredim population increase
Gil ,   Tel Aviv   (02.10.06)
Yuck!! I can't imagine an Israel full of arabs and haredim... that would be a disaster.
20. This sounds alot more accurate than alot of the BS out there
David Landman ,   Natick, USA   (02.10.06)
My only hope is the Israel government will stop giving money to large families and instead give significant child allocations to parents having a third child. Think of what would happen if even 25% of all the families with only one or two children started having three. This would end the demographic threat immediately as well as encourage Israeli population growth at a reasonable level. If Arabs and Heredi want more than 3 children, thats fine. Its a Mitzvah to have children, but stop government funding of them. I bet the demographics of Israel would change to 90% Jewish by 2050.
21. Good
Fares ,   Cleveland   (02.11.06)
fine ,will prove you wrong in 2020. as long as you agree with me that 20% of your population are palestinians (inside ) ..our math do add up . you want to talk about west bank ....let me tell you this ....you need to go to the 1967 line or the palestinians will start showing you again some tricks . the palestinians abroad are exposing you (in the US,and IN europe )..they are doing an excellent -superb job . as i said ..keep your hopes up and talk to us in 2020.
22. to yoram
Fares ,   cleveland   (02.11.06)
do not mislead the public and please tell them what they are up against . the conflict is no longer israelis vs palestinians ,syrians,egyptians ,it is no longer arabs vs israelis ..wakeup and smell the Hommos sir . your euphoric analysis is true but ....... unresponsible document when you realize that 1.4 billion muslims in the world cosider you as an enemy #1. i don't envy your position sir ..at all . if i were you i would : 1- keep my day job... since you are a bad ,misleading contributor . 2- i definitely would encourage your politicians to make Truce ASAP and pull back to 1967 now .. (yah Truce since you will never have peace there sir ,not after destroying 400 of our villages and made most of us refugees ),we are not talking about the killing and the uprooting of our trees etc .. Israelis are smart people ,they know what they are up against by now ,and they will reflect that in the March's polls,.
23. truth
sayeda ,   jerusalem   (02.12.06)
i do not like statistics or numbours i think you said about the increase in 14 years in palastinians .i want to aske you about palastinians only .in this 14 years how many palastinian was killed by the idf how many were and still are in prison all of them and i speake about ten thousands youth if they married how many children they will have so you put your statistics on war not on peace condition but the palastinians put their statistics on peace they want and need peace and they want and need a state if they are more or less than you hope .so what you write do not help the israili to sleep saftly it is just to close the eyes remain the war wheel this is becouse of fear not from demography increase but from the peace it selfe
24. for those who call for relocating Arabs
Palestinian ,   Palestine   (02.13.06)
I just want to remind you that less than 100 years ago, some people were calling for the relocation of Jews, or on other words, to transfer them out of Europe, (their home). Now you are doing the same,, The author of this article has a high level of deception. The Gaza Strip alone has 1.5 million Palestinians. there were 1.3 Million eligible voters for the latest elections, what does that mean? What is causing Palestinians to leave, is the terrorist Israeli attacks against Palestinian civilians and the hard living conditions Israel is creating in Palestine.
25. Wait a minute
soc   (04.30.06)
"Jewish dominance will be ensured"? This isn't a computer game you idiot and the real life consequences of that sort of thinking really aren't good. Remember Apartheid South Africa. "If only we put all the blacks in tiny 'homelands' and separate from them white dominance will be ensured". Why the hell do you think Jewish dominance is so good? You might as well say Aryan dominance is good. Stupid racists and their stupid plans.
26. Wonky stories
talknic ,   Australia   (12.25.08)
Were the Arabs invited to stay, when Israel became a State? We're told YES How did they suddenly become a demographic threat in the few weeks after they'd left, if they would not have been a demographic threat had they stayed? It does not make sense. Were they asked to stay in their homes and on their properties? We're told YES. But then we're told there was no where for them to go on return, because their villages and homes no longer existed.....How did these all suddenly dis-appear in the few weeks after they fled? It does NOT make sense, unless of course Israel razed villages and homes...
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