While I'm always leery of assessments of guerrilla conflicts that are too simplistic, this article has some good points. The parallels to Vietnam are probably the most compelling. Vietnam was not lost because the US relied too heavily on air power but because of failures at the top of the leadership. When you have a president picking bombing targets, you cannot expect great results (politicians!). Additionally, 34 days is not enough time to effectively deal with a guerilla foe, especially when forces are ordered to wait at staging areas for a week at a time. Hellsballa had 6 years to formulate their defenses and tatics for just such an occasion. Then, indecisive political leadership gives them another week or so to regroup, refine, and redeploy making the last few days the costliest of the war. I do have to disagree with the Iraq parallels because Iraq is not a complete failure for America and victory for guerillas. Indeed, look at the vast majority of deaths occurring in Iraq the past year now. It is not coalition forces or even Iraqi forces, it is civilians killed in markets or at mosques. At this point those are the insurgents only viable targets because the indigenous forces (Iraqis) are becoming strong enough to make attacking them too risky. But I digress... Another problem is measurements of success. Military leaders (and the policitians directing them) often measure success by the body count of dead enemy. This is a poor barometer of strategic success and is merely an indicator of POSSIBLE tactical success. What were the real goals of the operation? Were any of them achieved? Who knows?!! It has changed at every step of the way... Isreal does have one advantage however incompetent its leaders may be at times...G-d! Isreal will be a stone they strike their foot against!

Hezbulla did not fight better, nor did the VC, in Vietnam. Israel made similar mistakes based on politics. When they had hezbollah's backs to the wall they stopped. Were they both well trained opponents, yes. But in both cases the political will was weak. Learn from both.

Thank you for your thoughtful posting.It is unfortunate that the majority of Arabs are of the mindset that all of Israel must be destroyed.I am afraid it matters not how much respect is shown for a sworn enemy.Hisbollah isn't going anywhere,and they are sworn to the destruction of Israel. There is nothing Israel can do but continue fighting and reducing the number of Hizbollah members..for as long as it takes. Sorry Hussain,you sound like a decent chap. Stay in England and be safe.

i am beginning to think this war went exactly as planned and was a practice run to see what the west is up against in iran. i believe the damage to lebanon is huge. our losses are small in comparison. already iran and syria are piping down and jordan is checking planes for israel. this tells me that this was a warning. 'look what we can do w/gloves on ...imagne what'll happen when we take em off...' let hezbo and gang claim all the victory they want. one look at their towns and the truth is ovious.

Instead of trying to smart and a sensationalist. Try showing a bit of loyalty to your country.

Let's start with admitting. Yes, IDF wasn't ready enough for the war. Yes, IDF lacked intel. However - kill ratio IDF/Hezbollah is 5:1. Fighting against new enemy in territory he knows WAY better than you do and sometimes has weapons superior against yours - and still have such a kill ratio - it's extremely good. Take a look at Russians in Afghanistan and Chechnya. Americans in Afghanistan and Iraq. When looking at the percentage - they had way more casualties. The IDF soldier fought very well; it was the tactical and strategic command that failed. And despite that, the IDF soldiers shown themselves extremely well.

The main fact of this 34-days is morality : A regular army, with civilized concepts as "purety of arms", faces an unbearable situation, when confronted to a provocative (iranian inspired) guerilla, -backed by rotten media conveying so-called "international opinion", -trying to kill (israeli) civilians randomly at a distance by mobile and light artillery fire, -while hiding behind (lebanese) civilians taken hostages. This is a great pay-off for immorality, knowing that the military appropriate response to this tactics is carpet bombing, and "Kol Hakavod" to Tsahal and/or the Government NOT to have used it during these 34 days. But of course, this moral restraint has strategic limits, as Tsahal mission is to protect israeli civilians first, israeli soldiers second, and then, possibly, civilians on the other side, as exactly stated by (meni #17). Beyond the "moral limit", if the strategic situation happens to turn bad, brute force will necessarily be unleashed, and produce expected results : "Necessity", at the expense of "morality". Hope Nasrallah, Assad, Ahmadinejad would believe it, and will not enlist for a test in real life...

Nasrallah in hiding, war on hold due to constant begging for ceasefires. Nothing to brag about.

I think Israel should supply the Aborigines with weapons to resist the occupation forces of "white" Australia! If "white" Australians want to live in peace they should give up Sydney, Canberra, Melbourne, and w/e other shitholes Australia has. Only then will they have peace.

these radical military changes can take place only when Olmert and Peretz are gone and someone who is really willing and able to implement this change from a largely conventional army to a GUERILLA+CONVENTIONAL ARMY replaces them--BIBI , for example.

Did you see the picture of bint jbeil and Aita el saab. the idf had bombarded every nch there.

An excellent analysis. One thing Israel needs to implement immediately is the recission of the Hassidim's exemption from military service. If those religious zealots love Israel as much as they profess, they would be willing to die for her, just as the many Islamists are willing to sacrifice their lives for their extremist beliefs. It is undeniable unfair that secular Jews should sacrifice their lives while the Hassidim cower behind their polarizing politics and empty rhetoric.

If we had employed tactics used by the US in Afghanistan, and leveled out entire villages used for terrorist hideouts, using nepalm and cluster bombs, heck, even a neutron bomb - victory would have been swift. But the world would have been up on its feet, Israel would have faced sanctions, pressures, boycotts, isolation, and become a pariah for the hypocrite west. When our army is neutered from performing its job effectively, no wonder we cannot achieve victory. Still, 1:5 killing ratio against the terrorists, and bringing them close to the edge (a few more weeks and they would have broken down), does not qualify as a "loss" for me. Morally, perhaps. Militarily, no.

In every single encounter between the IDF and Hezbollah, The IDF came out better. At least 50% of the IDF deaths were avoidable and did not come about in direct action against the enemy. So this is mostly bull, none the less, it shows what a healthy society we have that we can discuss these things openly, whether rubbish, provocative or true.

1A

SO THIS WRITER SHOULD SHUT UP HIS BIG MOUTH

Hizbollah was the better half in this war. Not because they were better fighters or because they won militarily (they won politically - which can be worse) No they were better because they had objectives and achieved those objectives. The IDF, and my heart goes out to them all, ARE THE BEST. Make no mistake about it. The IDF have long been subject to budget cuts and why? Because they are good, adn we now expect miracles everytime they go into battle. It is hard to fight with an arm and a leg tied behind your back. Thats what happened to the IDF in Lebnaan. The political side killed the victory. But what happens next is important. Hizbollah will not sit on its laurels and neither should we. The next round is fast approaching - Our next move is important. Next time, Hizbollah will be bolder, stronger adn more equipped Those who dismiss Hizbollah easily are not really paying attention. Problems rise when you are arrogant. Our soldiers know this, but our politicians dont. Every enemy is to be dealt with with professionalism, accuracy and strenth (All attributes of the IDF mind you). G-d bless the IDF and Israel. Israel will make peace with her eighbours when her neighbours get rid of their murderous intent. But be certain that no Israeli will capitulate to terror

Ron ben-Yeshi must be teasing the Hezballah to try it again. It's hard to take him seriously. When IDF reached the Litani and maybe beyond, the hezbollah were cut off from all supplies. War is like chess. Position is everything. Remember the pending fate of the Egyptian army that crossed the canal in 1973? Sharon checkmated them. The Russians knew it and threatened intervention. Israeli victory in the ground war in Lebanon was text-book-wise complete. What happened afterwards politically in U.N. is not dependent on the Israeli military or the Israeli government. But it was to be expected. The government's big mistake was in not evacuating people from the north who were stuck in shelters in lousy conditions for 30+ days. Printing money for the Treasury is easy. The government should have made money available to northern residents as almost interest free long term loans. Greenspan did it for everybody in the USA after 9/11. Next time around we will be wiser and older, and make new mistakes . C'est la vie.

leah's analysis is esentially correct. she deserves at least 3 felaffels on each shoulder!

and we're still here. Nice patronizing touch, though.

How the viet cong lost ten terrorists for every American that died? That was a political war and just like in leb.the U.S. armed forces and the I.D.F. were held back by stupid politicians and political ass-kissing military brass.

Hizbullah is not better. IDF sucks. Think about it.

I don't "buy" the argument that H is a better army. They had a clear mission -- unlike Israel. Their mission was to terrorize. Israel had an unclear mission. I can't fathom how Israeli officials could think a small terror faction can be confronted with conventional means. History shows that is impossible (e.g, American Revolution; Vietnam, Russians in Afg). The failure on Israel's side was in defining an objective that could be met. This was a failure in decision making. From it, other failures followed and were revealed.

While I agree Nasrallah is extremely smart and the Huzb Allah have mastered their craft of gueriall/katyousha warfare, the declaration that if Nasrallah were ruling an Arab country Israel would be lost is preposterous. Israel can defeat every single Arab nation and Iran combined conventional military strength. No conventional army can even imagine to beat the Israeli army, but a guerilla force can do so. The fact is Nasrallah, like Che Guevara is better off being the leader of a small group and not the leader of a nation, this is better for him and for others...

Backs to the wal???? What is this analysis based on at all? This is just your wishful thinking... Even if the Israeli estimate of 600 Huzb Allah killed are 100% accurate that's not a significant amount. The Katyousha levels had increased on the last days of the war, the Israeli military was barely in Lebanon, and so on and so forth... How was Huzb Allah's backs to the wall? The idea that Israel can defeat a group in one month after failing to do so for a quarter of a century is beyond me. From the first day it was obvious to anyone who knew Huzb Allah that Israel can't win this war. The best possible scenario for Israel would have been killing major leaders thus giving Huzb Allah an organizational blow, but that's about it...

Please... First of all 5-1, 10-1, or 15-1, casualties don't determine military outcomes. 5-1 Is extremely manageable for Huzb Allah. Israel doesn't know the territory? I'm sorry but Israel was in control of that area for a quarter of a century, I'm sure the IDF knows south Lebanon by heart now except for the locations of bunkers... By the way, the United States had much much much better ratio in Afghanistan war than 5-1 casualties. The amount of US soldiers killed in Afghanistan was actually very low yet the Taliban are re-emerging. Even in Iraq where the US military losses have actually been significant the ratio is better than 5-1.

Israeli government did not want to go back into Lebanon. They knew too well what they had there and could have carpet bombed and all the other things ppl have mentioned on the talkbacks. Wonder what world reaction would be if they had done so. Its been bad enough when Israel defends itself. Ok do we start ignoring world opinion and what the USA dictates....oh I wish. Israel STOP being kind to your enemies, if under attack, strike with everything, no holding back. It is Israel in the immediate danger NOT the USA or any other country that feels its ok to sit back and take it.

They fought a gerilla warfare in a mountainous terrain and won!