Opinion
Turkey’s economic lie
Guy Bechor
Published: 15.09.11, 23:49
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1. Quite interesting
the local currency ,   schlat, germany   (09.16.11)
let's see how this adds up
2. Turkey is growing faster than China!
Karen McAdams ,   New York, NY   (09.16.11)
Turkey's economic future is bright…but it needs a new growth model, not tomorrow, not today, but yesterday. Turkey's growth until now has been dominated by expansion in the financial, retail and construction sectors, driven by rapid demand and credit growth. Turkey's banking sector is solid, but the country's consumption-driven model, as with Spain and China, no longer looks sustainable in the long term. Turkey has to lower costs, produce more, import less and move up the value chain. Mr Guy Bechor's opinion sounds like a propagandist approach. I agree with some parts but Mr Bechor sounds more like a wishful thinker who hopes that Turkey doesn't perform well economically. The way we see it from here is that the Turkish economy grew by 11% in the first quarter, outstripping China and confirming Turkey as Eurasia's rising tiger. I hope you shake hands and make peace. Instead of hoping that their economy fails.
3. Sarah b?
Anton ,   istanbul turkey   (09.16.11)
did you write this piece? cause it looks very amateurish :D
4. very accurate analysis based on data
tomer ,   or akiva israel   (09.16.11)
Guy Bechor, is an expert in islam & middle east political / history he is well known for accurate / sharp analysis which most of the time went to be correct specially about oslo & land for peace naive axiom .
5. #3 ANTON OF ISTANBUL
Iranian Jew ,   La   (09.16.11)
You can fall quicker than you can rise. China is rising because it stays away from useless politics. Muslim world will always suffer since they like to stick their nose into anything. When a leader talks too much then there are things under the surface that he is hiding. Stop this childish rants and go back to your factories and keep quite. You have made a few cents and now you want to take on the world. You should learn from Jews instead of hating them. Our policies are only harsh because we know your entire ideology is just pure out of emotions and not logical. You go chew on the things I'm telling you for a while and leave educated minds like Sarah B alone. You got a lot to learn first. Ma'salam
6. Good to know
SNS   (09.16.11)
7. Most experts confirm # 2 Karen opinion
David ,   NY   (09.16.11)
Bechor does sound like a wishful thinker and Karen advise is quite wise.. Shake hands, apologize, pay restitution and be friends cause you might have to wait a very long time for Turkey demise.
8. Something is wrong with the bright picture
LK ,   USA   (09.16.11)
China's unemployment rate is 4,3%, while Turkey's - 12% (according to mundi index). You can not have a 12% unemployment rate in a vibrant economy, something is not right about Turkey's claims of economic growth.
9. Turks Economic Lie
A.Noronha ,   Brazil   (09.16.11)
Goods remarks from G.Becor, and in my country we've one word for all poor peaple in the world !! You be Turks!!
10. turkey is not the enemy
avner ,   israel   (09.16.11)
we are looking to the wrong side, turkey is not the enemy, turkish citizens don't hate israelis nor they are anti-Semites, they only have a stupid government, so i agree with netanyahu in not responding to aggression. regarding egypt, that is a different subject, we are very near them, i would say 90% of its citizens hate israelis and maybe jews, they lost a couple of wars against us, so they are sore.
11. Shaking hands with Turkey
Michael ,   Toronto   (09.16.11)
To Karen McAdams: It's a great idea to shake hands and make peace. But it looks like while Turkey shakes one hand, it tries to hit as hard as possible with another. I am all for peace and I wish Turkey to crash hard. May be that will help them to gain some commons sense and decency.
12. Gobble, Gobble
Noah Lev ,   HollywoodCA   (09.16.11)
Again, Israel is soft peddling the dangers allied against it, by using tired old arguments. As one lawyer told me years ago, attack your opponents weak spots, and let their strength go unnoticed. But this was a labor case. Turkey is a formidable foe, a mainstay in NATO, with a huge arsenal and military, This is what will confront Israel, NOT their economiy. In fact, the better the economy, the better the relations, in in my opinion. Why would Erdogan want to duke it out with a force, that is equal to his however? Its like pitting the big bully in school against the smaller scrappy little guy who is on the wresling tem. Sure, Turkeys F16s can target we Jews, but our nukes can target this weaponry. ,wherever they send their ships. NATO understands that Israel has 500 nuke warheads..many of them tactical. So try something Erdogan. Your troops may not meet iwth virgins, but many will wail, gobble, gobble., when their necks are cut off for roasting. Turkey needs as we say here, "A good whuppin". Bye, bye.
13. You should mention Turkish demography.
Terry ,   Eilat - Israel   (09.16.11)
Ethnic Turks have a very low birthrate, comparable to the low birthrates of Europeans, far below replacement level. By contrast, ethnic Kurds have a high birthrate. In fact, if current trends continue, Turkey will be a majority ethnic Kurd country by 2038. Simply put, there will not be enough young Turks to support an ageing population. This would be a problem even in a wealthy country but Turkey is far from being wealthy.
14. and US budget deficit is 90% of GDP
(09.16.11)
15. Denial is now in Turkey
Gee ,   Zikron Yaakov   (09.16.11)
Erdogen is attempting to take Turkey back to another Islamic dictatorship and he did it with bread and circus. I'll bet by next year Turkey's economy is going to make Greece's look good.
16. #2 Karen - Growth based on debt isn't growth...
Scott ,   USA   (09.16.11)
Anyway, you can't shake hands with a snake. It doesn't have any hands. It's also pointless -- the snake will bite you.
17. To: No. 3
Sarah B ,   U.S.A. / Israel   (09.16.11)
No, Anton, I did not write the piece. Guy Bechor is the author. But it does not appear amateurish to me; if anything, it appears quite accurate. You are just annoyed and embarrassed because I have been pointing out Turkey's dire economic straits for quite some time, and you have always been quite disdainful of my comments upon the Turkish economy, insisting that Turkey has one of the strongest and fastest growing economies in the world. (Yeah, right.) Well .... it would appear that I have been correct all along (I knew that) and you have been wrong. Gee -- there's a surprise.
18. It gets worse. Consider Turkey's trade deficits.
Raymond in DC ,   Washington, USA   (09.16.11)
Turkey's trade deficit is running some $8 Billion per month and could well reach $100 Billion this year. That puts pressure on foreign currency reserves. Israel's growth figures are lower, but its overall picture is far more solid - smaller budget gap, smaller trade gap, lower unemployment, and growing foreign reserves.
19. Have it backwards?
Wiseguy ,   philadelphia, us   (09.16.11)
Perhaps all the snafu vis-a-vis Israel is an attempt at blackmail. On economic failure Turkey tells US: "Bail me out, or I make more trouble for Israel." It would be shrewd, and probably work. A classic aphorism to remember: Don't make the mistake of assuming that your enemies are dumb just because they're stupid.
20. Turkey's buble
Leo ,   Usa   (09.16.11)
Right on the money. Turkey's miracle is based on green money and money laundering from the gulf states. As the oil revenues dries up soo is the money coming to Turkey. On the top of all this we should not forget The Kurds. The combination of incoming economic disaster and Kurdish problem. Erdogan's political life is numbered
21. The article is correct
Randy ,   Toronto   (09.16.11)
I work for a major Canadian bank and I am very familiar with the international finance situation. The article is correct, Turkey is for now the untold but simmering financial disaster to come. The consequences will be worse than what we see in Greece or Spain. As it looks from where I am it's just a matter of time.
22. Ynet losing credibility fast!
Jim   (09.16.11)
23. Sources?
Metin ,   Germany   (09.16.11)
The author is listing figures without citing sources. The figures are clearly wrong. While it is true, that there is a big credit-card-bubble in Turkey, the figures in the article are clearly wrong (google helps with that!). I know the author is fuming about recent political developments, but he should stay with the truth.
24. turkey
fcd ,   israel   (09.16.11)
let their leaders eat the soup the cook. the sooner the better. thier leader has gone a bit "crazy" the under-statement of the year.........
25. Maybe turkey can bottle and sell hot air. erdogan steam poo!
Bunnie Meyer ,   Los Angeles, CA USA   (09.16.11)
26. Nice try
DrE ,   Sweden   (09.16.11)
But the budget deficit for turkey is around 3.5% in 2010 and it is even lower this year deu to the growth. Greece had 13-15% budget defocit last year. Do you enjoy making up lies in order to fool your fellow citizens. It will just hurt them when they take desicions on false info.
27. Don't panic
sabri ,   istanbul turkey   (09.16.11)
Don't make panic)))what kind of stupid wrote this lie opinion.Come to istanbul and see everything how Turkey changed? Turkey is grewing very fast.Turkey is not Greeece.
28. Guy Bechor is always worth reading
Israeli grandma   (09.16.11)
HIs assessment certainly makes sense in a wider context. Look at the huge numbers of Turkish ex-pats who have had to go to Europe to find work, Germany and Spain are prominent examples, this has been going on for a long time, although Spain now has massive unemployment today, and the situation is changing in Europe generally, so things will get worse for the Turks.
29. BUBBLE WISH
TURK ,   ISTANBUL   (09.16.11)
This deserves to be the article of the year for the Wishful Thinking award. Turkey has one of the highest interest rate for consumer borrowers. It has the highest fuel cost for consumers, about 3 usd per liter, and highest taxes on all consumer goods. Its mortgage system was introduced only 4 years ago. Its mortgage rates are around 12% per year. Its average mortgage lengths are 5-10 years max. Its debt ratio per person is the lowest in Europe. I am sorry to rain on your parade. Maybe prayer will help your wish. Cheers
30. What a propoganda ! Guy's economic lie !
Emre ,   Istanbul   (09.16.11)
There are maybe hundreds of criteria to understand how the economy is in a country. This guy has taken all the parts that he wants to use. Actually there are social protests in Israel, millions are marching and the credit note is increased :) what a hypocracy of credir note givers
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