Opinion  Sever Plocker
Israel won't blink first
Sever Plocker
Published: 14.02.12, 17:59
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54 Talkbacks for this article
1. To Mr Plocker
Ken ,   Australia   (02.14.12)
I read your article and understood very well, for the people that started to cry , you should not provide any basis for clarification. The description you now give is more than enough to prompt people to think clearly about you. I understand you then and now. I think any jew would be stupid to think other wise, but the stupid people are not the jews, I think the stupid people are the obama administration, this strategy of theres is appalling and when the war comes, they will have to get fully involved in any case, the brains part, well america has had its time and have done nothing, you take it from here, nice wrting.
2. good article but
alexi   (02.14.12)
Your explanation of israel thought on iran's nuclear are very informative except for one problem-bibi flinches in major showdowns and ehud barak's recent history is one of concessions and avoiding big combat whether cast lead, west bank cleanup, marmora paintball guns, concessions to egypt on sinai, offering apologies to erdogan for idf commando defending themeselves from swords and machetes.. Dagan, who was reputed to be a good mossad director has come out with dan halutz rubbish about not attacking iran's nuclear. it must be said that mossad was against osiraq and syiran hits. So mossad and generals are not good national leaders. That is the sorry truth. So dagan can be good at mossad or in some military operations but not as overall leader of israel policy. What he is saying is israel-get off your rear ends and get 10 iron dome batteries in the field before combat starts.
3. Stevie Plocker with eyeglasses. lol
Didno   (02.14.12)
4. HUGE hole in writer's logic
Poyani ,   Toronto, Canada   (02.14.12)
There is a huge hole in the writer's logic. He claims that war would be averted if Iran opened up all of its nuclear installations for inspections. The author is clearly unfamiliar with the actual situation. Iran in 2003 not only opened everything to the most intrusive type of inspections available, they froze uranium enrichment outright for a period of 6 months. All they asked in return was for guarantees that they would not be attacked. Guarantees which were outright rejected by the United States and Israel. Iran's nuclear facilities (including those in the mountains) are open to inspection now. This is not about nuclear weapons. It is about slowing down Iran's growing influence in the Middle East. Iran's economy has long surpassed that of Israel and its technological capabilities are going down the same path. This is a great problem for the American and Israeli governments which insist on Israeli superiority in the Middle East. Nuclear weapons or no nuclear weapons, it just doesn't matter.
5. Good writing and to the point.
Israeli 2   (02.14.12)
6. Yes, but WHY?
Moishe Pippick ,   NY, NY   (02.14.12)
You never explain why Israel can not tolerate Iran having a nuclear weapon. Think for a minute - if Iran used a nuke against Israel, Israel would retaliate with nuclear weapons themselves. Something else you somehow neglected to mention in the article is that Israel already has nuclear weapons! I mean, what is wrong with this picture?
7. Yes, but WHY?
Moishe Pippick ,   NY NY   (02.14.12)
You never explain why Israel can't tolerate Iran having a nuclear weapon. You may think the reasons are obvious but do us all a favor and go ahead and state them anyway. I can't figure it out - if IRan used a nuke on Israel, then Israel would retaliate with nuclear weapons. For that matter, a nuclear attack on Israel would kill many Muslims and especially endanger Muslim holy sites. I'm sick and tired of this talk that it means a 'second holocaust'. That's ignoring everything that made the Shoah possible, and disrespectful to all the people killed in the Shoah.
8. You are suicidal
Joah   (02.14.12)
But I like your kind suicidal :)
9. iran is nor afraid
karim   (02.14.12)
with all respect due to the author, Iran is not afraid of a clash with israel. why would he? some truths good to know : 1) israel 20 000 km ² - iran 1650 000 km ² 2) israel 7 millions people - iran 80 millions. at the end of the day iran will stand, but the back of israel will break
10. third option
karim   (02.14.12)
third option obvious and highly probable, israel attack the nuclear facilities. and Iran develops nuclear weapons despite all israeli strike
11. Why USA Must Join With Israel
Mike Post ,   Peachtree City, GA   (02.14.12)
Israel's determination to destroy Iran's nuclear weapons development program appears to be the only option now open to the West to prevent these horrible weapons from being used against innocent people. With a mountain of growing evidence (their past actions), there must be something inherently wrong in the wiring of the brains of most followers of Islam. Under the veil of their misguided religion, they appear to have a huge inferior complex. Like the bombing of innocents in a market square, militant Muslims will not hesitate to use the nuclear option in a western city. I can only hope that my country (USA) will join Israel in a coordinated and contained strike against the guilty before thousands, if not millions of lives are lost. I don't want my country to force Israel to do this deed by themselves. Present day critics will crucify those that attack Iran's nuclear program. History will rule that Israel's actions were justifiable. Just remember the actions of British Prime Minister Chamberlain in the years 1937–1940 prior to World War II. What could have been avoided if he had taken a stance of opposition against Germany in those crucial years? I sure hope President Obama and his Administration doesn't follow in Prime Minister Chamberlain's footsteps.
12. "To his misfortune, America did dare – twice"
esnuffnstl ,   USA   (02.14.12)
Yes, but it didn't just end badly for Saddam. It cost the US thousands of lives, trillions of dollars, and a large amount of diplomatic capital that could have been better spent elsewhere. And for what? It's only a matter of time before Iraq falls apart. Contrary to what the author wrote, I don't think the "global assumption" is that Israel will blink. Most likely it will be Iran. Probably by the end of summer it will begin shipping its nuclear materials to a third country in exchange for nuclear fuel rods and the lifting of sanctions. Although obviously it's in Israel's best interests to play up as much as possible the idea a military strike is inevitable if Iran doesn't do as the IAEA and UNSC desire. The author furthers this play.
13. Israel is fighting to exist
orca ,   Perris USA   (02.14.12)
Iran has said it is determined to wipe Israel off the map, you do not compromise with that Iran will cease to exist if it tries to wage war with Israel And the 12 Imam will not save it as Iran believes
14. #6 Ahmadinejad said he's willing to lose 1/3 of Iran
Michael Redbourn ,   Arad Israel   (02.14.12)
if it means that Israel will be destroyed. You're not dealing with a rationale human being here, but with a crazed religious fanatic that wants to bring about the end of the world so that the Messiah will come.
15. Plocker On Point
Merced Dave ,   Merced, California   (02.14.12)
I read the first article and got it. I read the second article and agree. Israel is not going to gamble on a second holocaust - that is the redline. There is no precedent ever for world powers acting to save Jews from a pogram or attack, or any effort to eliminate them. So prudence requires a strike against Iran, not a good solution, but at least Israel controls its own destiny.
16. Mr. Plocker doesn't want the nuclear holocaust to happen.
Michael ,   California, USA   (02.14.12)
I can clearly read it between his lines. He is frustrated with the stand of Iran and of Israel. To vent his frustrations the intelligent Mr. Plocker writes good articles. The truth is Israel cannot eliminate Iran's nuclear weapons development, maybe it can slow it down a little. Only the U.S. can respond with nukes to the Iranian threat. So, if Israel blinks, it will be because it has no other choice.
17. Excellent analysis. Iran is BEGGING to be attacked
(02.14.12)
andattacked and is willing to pay the price. Ahmedinejad will sacrifice all the Iranians for his religious hallucinations and arrogance. I recommend that in order to prevent this for happening, the Iranians take the initiative and "sacrifice" Ahmedinejad and his thugs instead.
18. Karim, why are you afraid?
(02.14.12)
19. Sources? Substantiation?
Allon   (02.14.12)
I agree there's no option, but Israel has some ridiculously stupid politicians at the moment - idiots like Ehud Barak who will stop at nothing to trip his own country up, line his pockets and make his own people destitute. Those at the top seem to have no confidence in Israels ability to stop the Iranian nuclear program bar using it's own nuclear weapons on the poor unsuspecting people of Iran. So, how are you substantiating your stance?
20. Karim
Allon   (02.14.12)
Funny how you all make the same mistake time and time again. 300 million Arabs tried to wipe us out 7 times. In 1948 our army consisted in a few hundred farmers and half a dozen light machine-guns - no armoured vehicles. We stood up against 7 modern armies - we trounced them. In 1973 our back was nearly broken due to a surprise war on our holiest day - Egypt had to beg the UN to prevent Israel from wiping out its 3rd army . Yes Iran might be a mighty country of 80 million people- 80 million wonderful people I'm sure, buta bunch of religious nutjobs are threatening us with nuclear annihilation to fulfill the precepts of al Quran - and brother - my family have been through the holocaust and if it were me, I would pull the trigger on Israel's 200 nukes before your nutjobs can - even though you are assuredly a wonerful person. Karim, my friend, please do yourself a favour, get your friends together and properly get rid of those religious BUMS who are leading you all to poverty and armageddon. Israelis want nothing more than to be your friends. With sincere respect for you and your countrymen, Allon
21. no 11
Historian ,   Israel   (02.14.12)
I agree with the USA joining Israel but get your facts straight, Americans in WW2 were complete pussies and only passed charters and acts while their allies were drowning in war and even making desperate pacts with Russia towards fighting Germany. Not until 7 Dec 1941 did the USA decide to do something about the War. Had they joined Britain, France and Russia earlier things would have turned out differently. Britain did more in the late 30's early 40's on the international stage than any other country, least of all the USA that remained neutral while people were sent to camps. The only thing that got you to take action was Pearl Harbour. Let's hope it doesn't take a modern day attack to wake the beast this time. In a nuclear 21st century, there is no waiting until the last minute.
22. response to #4
Leaveittothecanucks ,   USA   (02.14.12)
Poyani, you are a moron. If they were "so open" and allowed the UN in 2003 to see "everything", then how come we are just NOW discovering all these other hidden labs and nuke factories in the last 2-3 years?? Your argument is completely invalid. They only opened up what they wanted them to see, and have been cleverly hiding everything else. Make no mistake, Iran wants to get nukes not as a deterrent. They want to get them and use them. This is the only way that the mullahs can usher in their last mahdi. Read up - Ahmadinejad prays for this mahdi's coming before EACH speech he gives at the UN. They believe the only way to make him appear is for chaos to rain, including the destruction of Israel and the US. Wake up, get your head out of the sand!
23. #21 Historian with an agenda.
Michael ,   California, USA   (02.14.12)
Can you think for a moment that the U.S. might have a different approach from yours? Did you read and understood at least one history book about President Roosevelt and what he faced in America until 7 December 1941? Please, Mr. Historian, start over again without one-sided agendas, like a professional should. If you are teaching history in Israel, I hope you can shed those one sided agendas for the duration of your lectures, for your students' sake.
24. REVERSE WRITING...GOOD FOR THE GOOSE
Frank-el ,   Seattle USA   (02.14.12)
However, there was no deterministic approach here: Even now it would be easy to avert what seems inevitable. Should the government in Jerusalem open up all its secret nuclear facilities, to IAEA inspectors and relinquishes its military nuclear program, it would avert a clash with Iran. Renouncing nuclear weapons will not be undermining the regime’s credibility in the eyes of Israeli citizens: The regime will in fact gain credibility. However, given a failure to change Israel's nuclear policy and Jerusalem's desire to maintain a nuclear monopoly, soon the situation shall reach the red line; beyond it, Iran only has one option left given statements that it will be attacked by Israel: A wide-ranging military operation. Not because someone wants it, but rather, because there is no other choice.
25. #20 Amen, Allon
ari ,   USA   (02.14.12)
26. Obama administration failure
Fredrick Swenson ,   Las Cruces   (02.15.12)
The only thing, I would add, Ken, is that I hope when it does go down there is someone in the Oval Office with something between their legs as well as between their ears.
27. to kareeeeeeeem at 10 .
UNCLE JOE ,   CONN USA   (02.15.12)
actually NOT kareeeem .ISRAEL may not destroy iran's nuclear program totally and completely . the plan kareeeeeem ,is to do CLEANING JOBS on iran ROUTINELY AND PERIODICALLY .once every few years . they rebuild , we WILL REDESTROY . good. keep wasting all your money time and efforts on things that THE GREAT JEWISH STATE WILL KEEP ON DESTROYING . and with OUR HELP , have no doubt karen .
28. #4 Should your name be Pollyanna?
Robert ,   USA   (02.14.12)
Pollyanna was the title character of a children's story and became a popular term for someone with the same childlike optimistic outlook. The book was such a success, a sequel, "Pollyanna Grows Up" was written. It would be wonderful if what you say is true, but it is a childlike fantasy. Sever Plocker has expressed the truth in a clear way.
29. Will Israel Blink?
Syd Chaden ,   Palermo Calif USA   (02.14.12)
If Israel blinks, it will be because of the blinding flash of Iranian atomic bombs, which will destroy the country. There are those who question the Iranian intent and capabilty. For them, only the blinding flashes will suffice as proof. If Israel is to survive, the proof the questioners demand cannot be permitted. They value their comfort in the make-believe world they live in above the survival of Israel.
30. Massive siege
Eli ,   Haifa   (02.14.12)
Before israel boms iran, an arab leader will amass a 2:5 million soldiers in the very frontiers of Israel.Israel will have no choice but to nuke arab capitals but this won't stop the arab invaders.To avoid this we have to repent immediatly
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