It is easy to write Netanyahu's political obituary until one tries to figure out who would replace him. Yes, if the election were held tomorrow, Lapid would probably have more seats in the Kinneset than Netanyahu, but his gains would come from fellow opposition party Zionist Union, which would almost disappear. The current coalition would actually gain votes. Lapid would have to basically replace Likud in the current coalition, an impossibility due to his opposition to the religious parties or join with Likud, something that did not work out before. My bet would still be on Netanyahu.