It's hard to believe, but we are beginning to see an end in sight. A ceasefire agreement is likely to be reached by the end of the week. At the General Staff headquarters they are preparing for the day after. 

It will be a ceasefire of the most fluid and fragile type, a ceasefire that will not necessarily bring calm during its first weeks of implementation. It will be a ceasefire that will "freeze the unstable situation" with the potential of flaring up at any given moment. After three weeks of fighting one would expect something more decisive. This, however, is what there is. 

On Monday the Bush administration managed to secure a little more time for us, a few more days of fighting. The European foreign ministers were about to submit an unconditional proposal for an immediate ceasefire to the UN Security Council. From Israel's standpoint, this is the worst possible scenario. The Americans recruited the Germans and the British and cut short the proposal.

In private talks our friends in Washington are angry at us, they are disappointed – particularly in light of the military achievements so far – but they are fighting to the end for us. "Your incompetence will kill us", this sentence is frequently being heard by Israelis in touch with officials at the White House. Nonetheless, we are still viewed as "the good guys fighting the bad guys."

The UN proposal

The Security Council is due to convene by the end of the week to discuss another ceasefire proposal, a proposal currently being formulated by the US secretary of state. This proposal will be based on a long list of conditions, centering on the stationing of an effective multi-national force to serve as a buffer between Israel and the Hizbullah. 

Discussions at the Security Council are due to begin Thursday. Perhaps the secretary of state will once again succeed in getting us two more days under the pretext of procedural delays.

The American draft proposal includes points that still require staff deliberations. For example: definition of the multi force's mandate and the timeline for its deployment. These issues require further discussion and discussion takes time. So perhaps we can continue fighting until Sunday.

If the US draft is accepted, fire will cease. The situation will be suspended. Then what? What happens until the multi-national force arrives?

What's next?

There are several options being discussed, including by the IDF. One such option is that the IDF stays put, namely it will remain in the areas it has entered in the south of Lebanon. Alternately, the IDF can redeploy from the south of Lebanon by using artillery, patrols and armed raids, assuring that the Hizbullah doesn't trickle back south.

Both these options invite the continuation of hostilities between the warring factions, what's more the Iranians and the Syrians are continually trying to supply Hizbullah with more military equipment. The Israel Air Force is attacking the Syrian trucks carrying arms. The Iranians, however, are trying to supply equipment from within their borders, such as the sea-to-sea missile that surprised the Israeli gunboat – by air.

According to Arab sources, the Turks and the Jordanians are preventing the transfer of Iranian transport planes over their territory. The Iranians are also trying to transfer supplies via the sea. To date, such attempts have been foiled.

There is another option that doesn't seem very likely; that the IDF will redeploy its troops after which and the Lebanese army will go south and take up positions along the Israeli border until the multi-national force arrives.

Another idea being tossed around the diplomatic circles, and which seems more feasible, is that one of the NATO member states will deploy an organic military force in the area.

Ground assault?

And there is always a chance, however less likely, that a ceasefire agreement will not be reached in the Security Council over the weekend, and that a US proposal will not be submitted in the near future due to the dispute between the partners of the Security Council.

In such a case, the IDF will take its ground assault a step further and activate the reserve army. In the first phase, the IDF will implement its plan to take over additional areas in the south of Lebanon, up to the Litani River. If during these operations a ceasefire agreement is still not reached, the IDF will repeat its operation from the first war in Lebanon whereby it operated north of the Litani River.

This complex concoction leading to a ceasefire is fermenting now, at a time when the IDF is finally talking about a momentum, when the ground assault is finally showing results, when suddenly everything is going right.

Additional forces will be joining the ground assault Wesnesday in the aim of applying more pressure on the Hizbullah strongholds in the south of Lebanon. The IDF is carrying out operations of search and destroy – and not taking over villages. The Hizbullah guerillas have not left the area. They are hiding out in the village and town buildings.

Hizbullah - a major force

Fighting is being conducted as IDF soldiers enter the built up areas. The army has no limitations for opening fire in its effort to assist forces – neither from the air nor from the ground. Dozens of villages in the south of Lebanon look like they have been through an earthquake, all that remains is a pile of rubble.

Tuesday at 2am Israel's self imposed limitation on airs strikes ended. It is quite possible that with the return of the Israeli air force to full activity the Katyusha fire will resume as well.

The cessation of the Katyusha fire for the past two days shows that Hizbullah still has its command in place, that it still has control. Even after three weeks of pounding, the Hizbullah continues to be a major force in any ceasefire scenario.