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Changing nuclear equation
Should nuclear arms be used in response to powerful conventional attacks? Ido Kanter According to the equation accepted by the world, it's legitimate to use conventional weapons in response to a conventional attack, and similarly, non-conventional (nuclear, chemical, or biological) weapons in response to a non-conventional attack.
Six decades after the first and only use of nuclear weapons so far (since then, Egypt and Iraq made limited use of chemical weapons) the time has come to check whether this equation is still relevant. In my view, Israel should regain its deterrent power by threatening a nuclear reaction in response to a conventional attack of similar magnitude.
Here's a scenario: Israel is attacked, by Syria for example, with conventional weapons of equal magnitude to tactical non-conventional weapon – for example, the firing of a thousand missiles, each weighing a ton, within a short period of time. The overall power of such assault is a kiloton (million kilos of explosives) and is of equal magnitude to a tactical nuclear bomb, which can be fired using a suitable cannon.
For the tiny Israel, with its high population density, the result of such assault in national terms could constitute a much graver disaster than what happened to Japan. This raises the question, which is theoretical but could become practical one of these days, of what is the appropriate response? A conventional attack with the power of a tactical nuclear attack, or perhaps a nuclear attack?
This question is relevant today more than it was in the past. There's no doubt the quantity of conventional arms that can be fired at all regions of the country by Hizbullah, Syria and Iran is of equal magnitude to the power of a tactical nuclear weapon. What's more, the quantity and quality of firing means will only be boosted in the near future, in light of the recent war's results.
Ahead of the public debate on the matter, we should know the following:
As this subject constitutes an existential problem for the State of Israel, it is my personal opinion that discussing this question and boosting the probability of resorting to a tactical nuclear response will lead us away from the policy of vagueness that was accepted without argument for almost five decades.
However, isn't the world in general, and Middle East in particular, facing a change to acceptable equations?
Professor Ido Kanter is a member of Bar Ilan University's physics department
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