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Alone or united?
Barak, Ayalon should join forces because alternative is a Pyrrhic victory Nahum Barnea The mess created in wake of the Labor party primaries calls for a creative solution. Here is one such idea: Instead of wooing Amir Peretz and instead of risking a face-off whose consequences are uncertain, Ehud Barak and Ami Ayalon, the two victors, could sit down together and try to reach an agreement that would satisfy both their aspirations.
Under such an agreement, Ami Ayalon would be appointed Labor party chairman and deputy prime minister. Ehud Barak would be the defense minister.
Such an agreement gives both men quite a lot. Ayalon would take up the party leadership and a senior position in the cabinet. The alliance with Barak would lift, at least temporarily, the threat over his leadership. Contrary to former party chairmen throughout the last decade, he would have the time to rehabilitate the party ranks. This advantage is no trivial matter.
Yet perhaps more importantly, he would not have to bear the double responsibility of the Defense Ministry and the party. As a man who has never held a senior political post, such an exemption could be in his favor.
Barak is entering this race with a hardened heart towards the party in general, and towards its internal matters in particular. For Barak, the Labor party was no more than a springboard on the way to the Defense Ministry. If he is appointed to the post of defense minister, or so he believes, he would restore its image and status among the public.
An agreement with Ayalon would present Barak with the opportunity he has been waiting for. He can dedicate his entire time to defense matters, war and peace, without intrigues and politics. As Yitzhak Rabin demonstrated during his comeback years in the 1980s, this is the ideal prescription for those aspiring to return to the Prime Minister's Office.
They both want to win, but they are both well aware that the cost of a defeat would be heavy. Contrary to past face-offs between Yitzhak Rabin and Shimon Peres over the party leadership, here the contenders will be stripped bare. Barak will disappear: It is doubtful whether he will be given a third chance. Ayalon will return to the Knesset's back benches.
Such an agreement would also be good for the Labor party. Firstly, it negates the need for a dubious deal with Amir Peretz. Why dubious? Because such a deal would be perceived as surrendering to extortion and buying the elections.
Amir Peretz' tradable votes would primarily come from the Arab sector in the Labor party. Their affiliation to this party, or to any other Zionist party for that matter, stops at the primaries. It would not be able to pin its glory on it.
The deal is good for the Labor party for another reason as well: The combination of the two victors will make it attractive, at least temporarily. Clearly, the two will be enthusiastically received by the Labor party's original electorate. But they will also be welcomed in other places. Internal strife wards off voters. Cooperation brings them closer.
Olmert would benefit Let there be no mistake: Such an agreement would also entail clear disadvantages. Ayalon and Barak are not exactly the best of friends. Both are striving for the same position after all - the premiership. Inevitably, they will continue to clash.
Their political views are contradictory: Barak doesn't believe that an agreement with the Palestinians is possible at this point in time; Ayalon believes it is. Their personalities are different. They even have opposing views regarding the political agenda: Barak is willing to keep the Labor party in an Olmert cabinet: Ayalon subjected remaining in the cabinet to the replacement of the prime minister.
And I still haven't said a word about the politicians in both camps, who hope to build themselves up on the victory of their candidate. Their disappointment will be crushing. The winner can offer them so little, and even that will dissipate if the two join forces.
Let's get back to the possible benefits of such an alliance: In the immediate term Olmert would be one of the main beneficiaries of such an agreement. If both winners join his cabinet they would strengthen his administration and lend it a refreshing air. He would be able to - just like Yitzhak Shamir at the time - to establish a troika, with Barak on the hawkish side and Ayalon on the dovish side.
Alternately he could establish a quartet with Barak, Ayalon and Tzipi Livni. Such a maneuver would give him what he needs most: Time. I heard this idea from a senior political figure the other day. The figure in question is not a member of the Labor party, and he has a vested interest in such an agreement. This somewhat detracts from the idea but doesn't negate it entirely.
When the alternative is a Pyrrhic victory, even a Labor compromise can be deemed a victory.
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