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US experts: Obama must launch direct talks with Iran
Report authored by veterans of past administrations says US 'will likely have some breathing space to develop new diplomatic approach to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons capabilities, adding that Obama administration must 'drop its insistence that Hamas accept Quartet’s demand that it recognize Israel' Yitzhak Benhorin WASHINGTON – Barack Obama is just 50 days away from entering the White House as the 44th president of the United States, and his administration stands to face several major challenges pertaining to the Middle East, such as the Iranian threat, the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, the war in Iraq and the fight against terror.
On Tuesday, Obama's advisors were given a comprehensive report compiled by the Saban Center for Middle East Policy and the Council on Foreign Relations, which contains recommendations on the future administration's policies in the Middle East.
Many of the report's authors, such as Richard N. Haass and Martin Indyk, are veterans of previous US administrations.
One of the report's recommendations urges the new cabinet to focus its foreign policy effort on Iran, and to begin direct negotiations with Tehran with no preconditions. However, the report says the administration should pursue the talks while simultaneously exacerbating the sanctions against the Islamic Republic.
The report's chapter on Iran states that while so far the US' efforts to curb the Iranian nuclear program have failed, Iran, "because of its technical limits", appears to be two to three years away from building an enrichment facility capable of producing sufficient weapons-grade uranium quickly enough to support a credible nuclear weapons option.
"As a consequence, the Obama administration will likely have some breathing space to develop a new diplomatic approach to prevent Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapons capability."
The report goes on to recommend that the administration launch multi-channel negotiations with Tehran, headed by the State Department, and that the US should form minor diplomatic relations with Iran, which would allow for easier communication and understanding between the two sides.
The report further recommended that the US, France, Germany, and the UK embark on formal nuclear negotiations with Iran, and that the new administration should "seek agreement among the EU-3 to support stronger political and economic sanctions if Iran rejects an offer to resolve the nuclear issue."
Should the US' efforts fail, continues the report, Obama's administration "will face a difficult choice: It could accept Iran as a nuclear capable state with a breakout option and try to build firebreaks to prevent Iran from actually producing such material (and building nuclear weapons).
"If that fails, the United States could attempt to contain and deter a nuclear-armed Iran… or it could decide to attack Iran’s nuclear facilities in an attempt to damage and set back Iran’s breakout capability.
"Without a credible military threat, Iran is much less likely to make nuclear concessions that meet US requirements. Therefore, the Obama administration will want Iran to believe that it is prepared to use force if Iran rejects a diplomatic solution."
'Allow Palestinians greater freedom'As for the Israeli angle, the report states that it would only make the new administration's choice even harder: "Complicating this dilemma is Israel, which faces a perceived existential threat and could decide to take matters into its own hands even before the United States has decided that the course of diplomacy has been exhausted."
As for Israel's peace negotiations with both the Palestinians and the Syrians, the report favors the Syrian avenue as one which may yield an agreement. The Syrian government, it said, "is in a position to fulfill a peace agreement, and the differences between the parties appear to be bridgeable.
"Moreover, the potential for a strategic realignment would benefit the effort to weaken Iran’s influence in the sensitive core of the region, reduce external support for both Hizbullah and Hamas, and improve prospects for stability in Lebanon," according to the report.
"In other words, it would give President Obama strategic leverage on Iran at the same time as he would be offering its leaders a constructive way out of their security dilemma."
According to the experts, a failed Israeli-Palestinian peace process would weaken the US' position in the Middle East and bolster Iran. Thus, they suggest Obama encourage a ceasefire between the sides and support a Palestinian unity government.
"Washington should support conciliation between Fatah and Hamas as a way to diminish the Islamists’ incentive to undermine negotiations, forcing Hamas to either accept a peace agreement that addresses Palestinian rights or lose the support of the Palestinian public," the report states. "The aim should be less to 'reform' Hamas than to put in place political arrangements that are conducive to successful negotiations and that limit Hamas’s incentives to be a spoiler. The experts further propose that the Obama administration United States "drop its insistence that Hamas accept the Quartet’s criteria - recognition of Israel, renunciation of armed struggle, and adherence to previous Israel-Palestinian Authority agreements." Israel, the experts say, must "freeze new construction of Jewish settlements in the West Bank and in the Jerusalem area. "Critically, this freeze should halt the construction of new communities, outposts, and 'thickening' of existing settlements, which often entails expropriation of additional Palestinian land," the reports says. "In addition, Washington must urge Israel to allow Palestinians greater freedom of movement throughout the West Bank. In Gaza, provided the ceasefire between Israel and Hamas holds, the Israelis must permit a greater flow of goods in and out of the territory."
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