A lot of work to do
Is Mahmoud Abbas sincere in his efforts? Can he survive as PA leader?
A great deal has been written about the recent Rand Corporation report, “Helping a Palestinian State Succeed.” Yedioth Ahronoth columnist Sever Plocker made a point of reminding readers of the demographic time bomb mentioned in the report, and how Israel must define and close its borders with the Palestinians to avoid being swarmed under a mass of Arabs.
The headline-grabbing items in the report detailed the cost it projected for developing “Palestine” over the next decade: Its estimate of more than USD 70 billion is only a starting point, and fails to add in many factors.
Furthermore, the report’s suggestion of an “arc” of Palestinian development along the spine of the West Bank mountains and its major cities, to include a high-speed rail link, limited access superhighway and even a linear park running the length of the country, is so blue-sky that it is conceivable the report will be shrugged off as unrealistic to the extreme and be ignored.
The report concedes that none of these efforts will be easy. Its reasonable tone almost guarantees it will be met by yawns (Of course, if we were all reasonable, we wouldn’t be in such a mess.). In fact, many have said the report simply rehashes old ground, wasn’t done at the request of the Palestinians, and is likely to be DOA.
International money - down a rat hole?
But an important aspect of this report has gone unnoticed and should not be ignored: For all of Rand’s calls for Israel, U.S., and international support for the Palestinians, the report’s strongest call is for the Palestinians to get their act together.
All the international help and support isn’t going to amount to a hill of beans - and could easily become billions poured down a rat hole - if the Palestinian Authority fails to reform itself from within.
Right up front in the report, Rand calls for the Palestinians to develop “an effective government operating under the rule of law in a safe and secure environment that provides for economic development and supports adequate housing, food, education, health and public services for its people.”
It returns again and again to that theme: “The thoroughness with which democratic institutions and processes, including the rule of law, are established will be vital from the outset - indeed, they are already critical even before the state has been created.”
The Rand analysts said the Palestinians’ “most pressing internal security concern will be the need to suppress militant organizations that pose a grave threat” both to Israelis and Palestinians themselves.
Such steps would include a reduction, at least, if not an outright elimination of independent armed militias.
Can Palestinians help themselves?
Here’s where we get serious: Is Mahmoud Abbas sincere in his efforts? Can he survive as PA leader if he gets serious? Can that portion of the Palestinian public that presumably wants the rule of law, good schools, a clean environment and economic development exert enough pressure in a society not used to public input in its daily rule?
Some have decided already that Abbas is either incapable or unwilling. Others are calling for unconditional support for him. A more realistic position is to say it’s not yet clear what he will do. There are some encouraging signs. A different report from last year, by the World Bank, praised and showed amazement at the resilience of Palestinian family and social structures despite the disintegration of their economic conditions. It’s something, at least, on which we can base some optimism.
It’s very likely the Rand report will simply gather dust on the shelves along with dozens of others over the year. But its core thesis can’t be ignored: Much of what needs to be done must come from the Palestinians. They need to help themselves first.
