Unpredictable future

North of the Elei Sinai settlements, on the Green Line border, stands a tall IDF Intelligence tower. A construction crane was brought in this past week to dismantle the electronic equipment. The IDF, as opposed to civilians, is dismantling its presence in Gaza by the book. The IDF calls it “stratification”: When an IDF position is taken down in Netzarim, a tank is positioned in its place. The security arrangements remain the same - more or less. IDF commanders in the field read former IDF Chief of Staff Moshe Yaalon’s prophecy regarding the intifada’s renewal and former Shin Bet Head Avi Dichter’s prophecy that it would not erupt again, and smile bitterly. Conducting intelligence work in Gaza regarding what would happen two months from now is similar to purchasing a house in Hawaii 400 years before planning to move into it. They live the present, and today, as one officer says, the cup is “one-third full and two-thirds empty.” The IDF has unearthed 12 tunnels along the Philadelphi route on the Egyptian border. The Palestinians are supposed to destroy the tunnels from their side. They are stalling. The IDF discovered a tunnel located between Khan Younis and the areas between the Gaza settlements of Netzer Hazani and Ganei Tal. The Palestinian Authority promised to destroy the tunnel’s opening located on the Palestinian side. The bulldozer operator refused: his life was threatened. Eventually the opening was sealed. During the past month the number of alerts jumped from four-five to 24. Last weekend 20 incidents had been recorded: bombs, anti-tank missile fire, and sharpshooter fire. Philadelphi. Islamic Jihad is dominant, but other organizations are involved as well, such as Hamas and former Fatah members. “We are neither in a state of calm nor warfare,” an IDF commander in the area says. “We are in the seam.” Good practice for pullout Into this fragile situation enter the far right activists. Among them are Kahane activists, such as Baruch Marzel and Itamar Ben-Gvir, who are nothing more than TV heroes. For years they have been careful not to get caught performing illegal acts. Among the activists are more dangerous people, who are not quick to expose themselves to the cameras. They arrived in Gush Katif a few weeks ago. The residents shunned them. They had no choice but to move into the beachfront hotel. The hotel is owned by the ultra-Orthodox Ben-David family from Mevaseret Zion, near Jerusalem. The IDF held negotiations for control of the building. The negotiations took longer than expected. Meanwhile, the extremists and their families entered the hotel. Let them stay there, one source suggested. It will be easier to isolate them there. No one will be horrified if force is applied against them. It’s dangerous, another source said. In any case, it was determined that legally they cannot be evicted from the premises. Legal proceedings must be initiated. The assumption that they would comfortably tan on the beach until the pullout begins has proven to be false. A week ago they shot and injured a Palestinian neighbor. The incident pushed the IDF's Judge Advocate General to search for a legal solution that would expedite their eviction from the hotel. The IDF supports the move: It would be good practice for the pullout, a promo for the disengagement. The IDF positioned two soldiers, 24 hours a day, in the entrance to the Kisufim route, which leads to the Gush Katif settlements. Their mission is to count the people entering the area by car and subtract the number of people leaving the area by car. According to their calculations, 700 people were added to the local population as of this week, less than 10 percent. Such an increase can apparently be ignored.

Unpredictable future

Predicting what will happen in Gaza in two months impossible