As Israel prepared to withdraw from Gaza, the army’s intelligence branch is pessimistic.
On Tuesday, IDF Intelligence Chief Aharon Ze’evi-Farkash warned
that the Palestinians continue to produce weapons in Gaza and characterized the situation as a “ticking bomb.”
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According to Major General Farkash, the Palestinian effort to transfer rocket-manufacturing know-how from Gaza to the West Bank continues. The intelligence chief warned that if the Palestinians are not pleased with the progress made in diplomatic talks, Israel can expect terror attacks to resume in earnest in the spring of 2006.
“The Palestinian Authority is making efforts to maintain quiet in the Strip after the evacuation, but is unwilling to dismantle terror groups to that end,” Farkash told the Knesset’s Defense and Foreign Affairs Committee. “Even when they are provided with information about a specific person, they refuse to detain him.”
Iranian nuclear bomb by 2008
According to the army’s intelligence branch, the relative lull in violence has been kept, despite several Qassam rocket attacks perpetrated by a group associated with Hamas.
“The lull has a chance to continue until Palestinian Authority elections in January 2006, and if a political process gets under way even beyond that time,” he said.
Intelligence officials contend that while the PA fears the Israeli withdrawal would end with the current withdrawal from Gaza and parts of the West Bank, it is also fearful of the possibility that extremist groups would gain strength at the authority’s expense.
Therefore, officials say, the PA will work to strengthen its hold on Gaza and the West Bank.
“PA Chairman Mahmoud Abbas is maintaining the calm to make certain the pullout is carried out and that (the Israeli withdrawal) would continue.” Ze’evi-Farkash said.
As to the Iranian nuclear threat, he said he disagrees with American intelligence estimates that say Iran will be able to develop nuclear capabilities only 10 years from now.
Israeli intelligence agencies contend the Iranians will possess the capabilities to develop nuclear weapons by the end of 2005 or the beginning of 2006, meaning they would be able to produce a nuclear bomb within the next three years, or in mid-2008.
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