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Photo: Flash 90
Sharon (left) and Olmert
Photo: Flash 90

After the freeze

Everyone will try to seize opportunity created by Sharon’s departure

The night Prime Minister Ariel Sharon was taken to the hospital the lights burned at Labor Party headquarters in Tel Aviv late into the night. Party secretary Eitan Cabel shifted in his chair, didn't really know what to do with himself. He had been working for hours, well before Sharon was hospitalized. But when initial reports of Sharon's illness reached his desk, he set everything aside to watch the TV news.

 

A chain smoker, he chugged through cigarette after cigarette. "Look how everything not connected to the prime minister looks fictitious, like a figment of our imagination," he said. "It's amazing."

 

Cabel's right, but only partly. Ariel Sharon's illness really has frozen the picture, at least for the moment. At the moment, no one is going anywhere. Entire campaigns have been put back in their respective drawers, enemies and friends, have all stood silent, glued to the TV and radio.

 

Politics, little considerations, numbers, campaigns – have all been pushed aside. Most politicians have been caught at a loss for words.

 

But make no mistake about it: This freeze is temporary. After Sharon comes out of his coma, and after it becomes clear what his health is like and what his mind is like – everything will start to move.

 

'Ice has already started to melt'

 

In Kadima, the Labor Party, the Likud and Shinui. Everyplace. Everyone will try to seize the opportunity that has been created by the departure from political life by a man who appeared to have no replacement.

 

Ehud Olmert, Amir Peretz, Benjamin Netanyahu – all three will try to prove that they are qualified to step into Sharon's massive shoes.

 

For his part, Shimon Peres may also try to grab hold of the coattails of the polls. It wouldn't be the first time.

 

In practice, the ice has already started to melt. Slowly, whispers will start, followed by louder noises, and voices will once again be heard. There is no vacuum in a democracy. Not just ahead of elections.

 

March 28 is coming, and there is a country here to run. We also need a new leader, a new image, someone who can take Kadima forward.

 

Sharon to determine schedule

 

At the moment, the schedule is being dictated by Ariel Sharon and his health. Ehud Olmert, his deputy, has no intention of making mistakes or falling into a trap. He will meet with Kadima members in order to ensure they are behind him – but he is not expected to commit to anything.

 

He can't. He doesn't have the authority – political or ethical. Not as long as Sharon is lying in hospital.

 

More than that, no one has appointed Olmert acting head of Kadima. He hasn't been elected or entrusted him to make political moves.

 

These sorts of things aren't done when the party leader is hospitalized, connected to life support, with a bandage around his head.

 

Olmert was obliged to meet with Peres, but he couldn't offer him the number two spot in the party, a senior ministry in the next government, or anything else.

 

Rather, he had to meet Peres so he didn't accidentally get away. He also has to listen to what this veteran, experienced politician has to say, and perhaps event to let him know that he really is wanted and valued around Kadima.

 

With respect to Peres' age and in light of the makeup of the Kadima list, Olmert has a significant advantage that could bring him victory over any other member of Kadima, if they in fact run against him.

 

'Major battle will be waged against Netanyahu'

 

Olmert has been considered one of the people closest to Sharon in recent years and a full partner in the disengagement process.

 

He is still considered young, despite the fact that he's spent many years in politics. He also has the enthusiastic support of several of Sharon's advisors, who see him as a capable heir from just about every standpoint.

 

In addition, he has been supported in recent days by Tourism Minister Avraham Hirchson, who has been taking care of Olmert's politics behind the scenes.

 

But will Olmert succeed in bringing the 40 mandates that Ariel Sharon that recent polls showed Ariel Sharon would pull in? Kadima officials realize that this feat is now impossible.

 

Therefore, the major battle will be waged against Netanyahu and Likud.

 

Kadima fears that with Sharon out of the political arena, Netanyahu will become more attractive to Likudniks; the goal will be to prevent those who were set on voting for Kadima from returning to the Likud now that Olmert is leading Kadima and Qassams are landing in southern Israel.

 

With all due respect to Olmert, he is not Sharon.

 

 

Labor, for its part, will not miss the opportunity to beg Peres to return. How ironic: At age 82, while the younger Sharon is sedated and connected to a respiratory system, Peres, yet again, becomes the most sought after figure in politics. Both Labor and Kadima want him- unconditionally.

 

'The days are numbered'

 

Meanwhile, Amir Peretz must decide on the Labor party list for the March elections. Currently, due to what Labor officials refer to as “ethnic pride,” Peretz is refraining from phoning Ehud Barak and opening a campaign to unify the ranks. Instead, he turned his daughter, Shani, into his closest and most influential adviser.

 

But there are those who are quick to compare Shani to Omri Sharon, and usually the conclusions are not in favor of Peretz’s daughter.

  

Now the Labor chairman must decide on a plan for his election campaign, which currently lacks any substantial direction.

 

“The days are numbered, and we must start moving,” Labor officials said recently, even prior to Sharon’s hospitalization.

 

Netanyahu has avoided making any embarrassing mistakes since being appointed Likud chairman; he has worked quietly, and this has worked in his favor.

 

Now it’s a whole new ballgame, and in just three-and-a-half months we will know who comes out on top. 

 


פרסום ראשון: 01.06.06, 15:55
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