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Photo: AP
Al-Aqsa gunmen in Jenin
Photo: AP
Photo: AFP
The successor? Marwan Barghouti
Photo: AFP

Palestinian Authority: A guide for the perplexed

Ynet brings you an abridged guide to chaos, anarchy and politics as Palestinian Authority heads to elections. Second in three-part series

If Palestinian Authority Chairman Mahmoud Abbas isn't really doing his job, who is filling in? Who is really in control of the PA? Who are the future Palestinian leaders and who are their key players on the ground?

 

There are many answers to this question: The PA has countless centers of power, many of which benefit form the support of armed groups and external elements.

 

In every Palestinian town, in addition to the governor and the mayor, there is the head of the military wing, mostly members of Fatah, which controls its territory.

 

Take the example of Jenin. Senior PA officials who fail to coordinate visits to Jenin with Zakaria Zubeidi are likely to experience a barrage of bullets, not as part of a reception ceremony, but rather as a way of showing them the way out, or "explaining" that for the visit to be successful and quiet, they must meet Zubeidi to "coordinate and patch things up." In many cases, the armed operatives have become someone the general population turns to.

 

As for the security apparatuses, Abbas' reforms have weakened the "classic" centers of power traditionally held by heads of the security apparatuses.

 

Today, there are hardly any commanders with as much centralized power and authority as days of Mussa Arafat (who was killed), Mohammad Dahlan or Jibril Rajoub, when they were commanders of the apparatuses.

 

Al-Aqsa Martyrs Brigades

 

On the ground, the al-Aqsa Martyrs Brigades is the most problematic organization and the most difficult to control because it is subordinate to many people with vested interests, often contradictory and adversary.

 

The organization's members present candidates for elections, control the streets, shut down the elections committee, shoot and do whatever they feel like on the ground. This is perhaps the factor that makes Abbas’ life as chairman of the PA most unbearable.

 

With the force of guns and protected by the unwillingness, or sometimes inability, to stop its people, the organization continues to operate and run wild. It acts as a true sovereign in many cases and places.

 

Fatah vacuum

 

Apart from the al-Aqsa Martyrs Brigades, other Palestinian factions also took advantage of the vacuum created by changes in the leadership and internal Fatah struggles.

 

Without truly challenging the PA these groups, mostly Hamas, have tried to increase their control and influence, with an eye on becoming one of the centers of control. Through its civil network, Hamas runs a state within a state. It has appointed regional commanders, corresponding to its colleagues in the PA, and presents a clear leadership alternative.

 

Nonetheless, it is not clear if Hamas has decided whether the conditions are ripe for its rise to power. The issue of rise to power is part of the discussion in Hamas in particular and throughout the Muslim Brotherhood.

 

And what about the older generation of Fatah? The older generation is fighting a final battle for influence; some say it is a fight for their very survival. This group can be subdivided into people fighting to preserve benefits they have enjoyed since the Arafat days, and on the other side, elements that honestly believe that they are the future torch-bearers of the Palestinian revolution. The Fatah list proves that this group in weakening, but it is still too early to bury it.

 

On the ground: We are talking mainly about a younger generation of Fatah leaders, including Marwan Barghouti, Muhammad Dahlan and Jibril Rajoub. The term “on the ground” is meant to distinguish them from the older leadership, which originates mostly from Tunisia. These are the three dominant and most powerful men in the territories. Their victory in the issue of the movement's general elections list only proves their rising power.

 

What is the secret to the power of Barghouti, Dahlan and Rajoub?

 

It should be understood that Fatah's Barghouti is one of the leading centers of control in the PA, despite his imprisonment in Israel. Barghouti is regarded as the engine behind both the al-Aqsa intifada and last year's truce. He is the axis which dictates the elections agenda, mainly with regard to Fatah.

 

He also heads the Fatah list, after deposing the movement's elders, and is earmarked as Abbas' successor. The general assessments towards him are that sooner or later, and probably sooner, the issue of his release from the Israeli prison will come up, so he can “clean up" the PA.

 

In spite a not-so-small circle of opponents, Dahlan has situated himself as one of the strongest alternative leaders in the PA. He constantly increases his control over many domains relevant to everyday life.

 

Among others, he has successfully coordinated the “disengagement portfolio”, and enjoys growing support among most Fatah operatives in the Strip, among the younger generation, and throughout the al-Aqsa Brigades. With the backdrop of his decent management of the disengagement, his standing in the public's eye is growing stronger.

 

He also benefits from a powerful status in the international community. Following his resignation from the Palestinian security apparatus and the Palestinian government, Dahlan continues to be an important and central factor. Officials from abroad that come to the PA, especially Gaza, meet with him to close deals – although he no longer holds any official title.

 


פרסום ראשון: 01.13.06, 10:29
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