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Can he be stopped? Ahmadinejad
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Nuclear plant in Iran
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Can we prevent nuclear Iran?

Special report: After hearing from Israeli generals on the Iranian race to build nuclear bomb, Ynet turns to international experts for their take on looming threat. ‘Considering Ahmadinejad’s declarations against Israel, it's very clear that these developments are totally unacceptable,’ one expert says

Are we ready for a Cold War? This question continues to reverberate in Ynet's special project on the issue of the Iranian nuclear threat. The subject carries many questions – political, economic, and human.

 

Will the world stop Iran or Israel can only trust itself? World leaders keep repeating the common need to stop Iran’s nuclear projects as long as the country cannot prove its peaceful intention. How to stop Iran? There is no one clear answer.

 

Ynet spoke with two world experts about the dangers of potential nuclear bombs in Iran and the options of decision makers: Philip Errera, the head of analysis department of the French Foreign Ministry and Dr. Shahram Chubin, the director of studies at the Geneva Center for Security Policy (GCSP).

 

"The issue is really the possibility that Iran may reach military nuclear capabilities, and it's important to stress why it shouldn't be allowed to do so," says Errera. "First of all, it will have a significant influence on the nuclear issue in the entire region and Iran will encourage other countries to start their own nuclear programs.

 

"The second reason, which is very clear to Israel, is nuclear missiles that may impact the security of Iran’s neighboring countries, as Iran continues to work on increasing its missiles' range. Considering Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s declarations of wiping Israel off the map, it's very clear that these developments are totally unacceptable.”

 

'Iran has no real need for nuclear weapons'

 

Errera also mentioned Iran's support of terror, adding that a nuclear Iran would also seriously erode the strength of the Non-proliferation Treaty and global security.

 

Dr. Chubin is much less diplomatic: "I believe that Iran is interested in the weapon. It will provide Iran with status and influence in the region. It will also afford an internal legitimacy – the nuclear program is very much the regime's need to offer its people something instead of a rundown economy and shaky foreign relations. That's the reason they treat the progress of the nuclear program in terms of 'respect' do not allow the enrichment to be done outside Iran.

 

“We must remember that Iran has no real need for nuclear weapons. It has no outside threats like Pakistan and India do. The regime's main threat comes from within, and that is why continuing the nuclear program is no less an internal than external matter," he said. 

 

Is Iran a real threat or is it ‘Iraq 2’?

 

Errera: "If you look at the threat that stems from the combination of abilities and intentions, I believe that we're in a different situation. Iran’s capabilities have been documented meticulously, as well as its violations of the nuclear development field."

 

Chubin: "Iran didn't violate the Non-Proliferation Treaty, but it is constantly looking to expand its abilities within the treaty. It would be difficult for Iran to stay in the same course because it's a catch 22: if it declares progress in the nuclear field the international community will not allow it to remain within the treaty. On the other hand, a decision to withdraw will prove that it is not interested in weapon.

 

There is also the issue of timing – if it withdraws from the treaty before it accomplishes operative capabilities, it will be very vulnerable to international pressure."

 

Sanctions? Iran is not really worried

 

Errera: "Advisors to the Iranian president know that he wants a booming economy and if he is looking to lower unemployment rates Iran must have foreign investments that can only come from the West. The same goes for oil and gas sectors.

 

It's important to remember that if international sanctions are imposed on Iran they will also be imposed on Russia, China and other countries.

 

Chobin agrees but portrays more complex picture: "The way to deal with Iran is to introduce a threat of a military option on the negotiation table, but to keep exerting constant pressure. Sanctions against the elite or the regime will not change anything. If the world will freeze Ahmadinejad’s assets abroad or impose travel limitations on him, he will be ecstatic because he then can prove to his people that he is a victim.

 

“The Iranian regime is also totally united. There are disagreements between the moderates and the extreme conservative leadership. The world has to pressure Iran enough to swing the pendulum toward the moderates,” he says.

 

Is the Iranian regime more anti-Semitic lately?

 

Chubin: "The hatred for Israel is largely instrumental. The regime uses Israel to gain internal support. All the references to the Holocaust are mainly to gain points. Also, the whole Palestinian issue – it's not like they are more Palestinians than the Palestinians. They support the Palestinians just like the support the Muslims in Kashmir and Chechnya. If you ask them ‘are you ready for a military confrontation on the Palestinian issue?’ They will answer no."

 


פרסום ראשון: 05.11.06, 14:49
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