Qassam logic
Israel must take the lead if it wants to avoid a third intifada
The Qassam rocket has never been more powerful than it is at this exact moment. It’s no more accurate or explosive than in the past, but with Israel’s hands tied as we investigate the accidental obliteration of almost an entire family, Hamas and Islamic Jihad are able to fire the rockets unfettered on the poor citizens of Sderot. The situation has many Israelis seething for a response. One of them is MK Avigdor Lieberman.
In an interview on Reshet Bet radio Monday morning, Lieberman called for a dramatic response to the Qassam launchers in Gaza such that the price of each Qassam becomes so high that firing them is no longer “worthwhile.” Lieberman’s logic is essentially economic: increase the price, and the demand will go down. The only trouble with it is that terrorism isn’t motivated by the laws of the free market.
Never mind the facts
This kind of logic ignores two basics facts of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. First, there is a large number of Palestinians willing to give their lives for the continuation of the violence. Not just to risk their lives, but knowingly give them. Any logic that imagines that a bigger price tag on the use of violence will decrease its demand is ridiculous. The Palestinians are willing to pay whatever it takes.
Second, drastic responses don’t work in our conflict. The second intifada saw several massive military incursions into the Gaza Strip and West Bank (Defensive Shield, Days of Awe, Colorful Journey, etc.) that failed to produce long-term reductions in violence. We may have temporarily crippled the terror groups, but all of them invariably grew back stronger than ever. Drastic force is nothing new and has never worked against the Palestinians. And at this moment, when Hamas has cancelled the temporary calm and is calling for renewed suicide bombings, the last thing we need is a headlong dive into escalation that we know is only temporarily effective at best.
MK Lieberman doesn’t understand this, most likely because he doesn’t understand why the Qassams are being fired in the first place. The Palestinians believe they are fighting against oppression and occupation; that they are fighting for their rights. That kind of commitment can’t be snuffed out by turning northern Gaza into a buffer zone and tightening our grip over the Palestinians’ daily lives. Those kinds of tactics will only reinforce the perception of oppression and motivate continued violence.
Coming back from the brink
Yes, the Palestinians are engaging in terrorism and yes, we have the right to defend ourselves. But defending ourselves from Qassam rockets shouldn’t come at the price of creating suicide bombers. Different solutions are called for, solutions that reward the Palestinians for choosing peaceful means.
At this moment Ehud Olmert should do his utmost to bring us back from the brink of renewed violence. That includes issuing a personal apology to the Ghalia family, making a direct appeal to PA President Abbas to bring calm and safeguard impending negotiations, and the cessation of all targeted assassinations (except for ticking bombs). It may not be our turn for concessions, but we can expect neither restraint nor compromise if we fail to show either.
If Israel wants to avoid a third intifada, then we’re going to have to take the lead and renew the ceasefire, this time bilaterally. Renewed violence is not in Hamas’ interest either, and with the help of a third party’s good offices (e.g. Turkey or Russia), a ceasefire could be reached. Not because we are weak and not because we are scared, but because it is in our best interests; the only effective solution against the Qassam rocket is diffusing it before it’s fired.
David Kellen is a graduate student in Conflict Analysis, Management and Resolution and researches peacekeeping operations at the Truman Institute
