Treating cancer with aspirin
There is no reason to get over-enthusiastic about the US-France ceasefire proposal
I really do understand the excitement that has gripped senior Israeli security-political types, as well as several of my colleagues in the media. The US-France draft of a ceasefire proposal is essentially a declaration of intent.
It is not a detailed resolution about stopping the fighting with Hizbullah that Israel must fall into line with; rather, it is a foggy call to both sides to turn down the heat and to agree on the principles for an eventual agreement, to be banged out by the Security Council at a later date.
And just who is expected to oversee this reduction? That's right, our good friends over at UNIFIL.
Yes, they will watch over everything, write it all down in their notebooks and report back to HQ in New York. They'll alternate between accusing Israel and Hizbullah of attacking the other, and back again. In other words, it is like prescribing aspirin for a cancer patient.
Best case scenario
In the best case scenario, and the draft is adopted as-is by the Security Council, there will be a certain measure of quiet on both sides of the northern border, something like what we experienced at the end of last week – a few days without katyushas in Israel, and without Israeli attacks on Lebanese infrastructure.
And even this will be temporary, because in the meanwhile Hizbullah is not prepared to accept the draft's principles. Therefore, the skirmish will continue on the ground.
From Israel's perspective, the only positive innovation of the American-French draft is in the fact that it is based on Israel's narrative and fundamental demands. This is a major PR victory for us.
Don't get too excited
But there is no cause for the euphoria currently being transmitted by the government. We must remember that this is only a draft, and even if the Security Council adopts it, will only serve as a preview to the political haggling about the details of a final-status agreement.
Therefore, there is no reason to analyze the finer details of the draft. Instead, we must wait for the real thing: A Security Council resolution that will be adopted several weeks from now and will include practical and concrete details about a final agreement, including the mandate and make-up of the multi-national force to deploy in south Lebanon.
History teaches that asymmetrical wars between guerilla groups and state armies – fade away. They do not end with singular acts like wars between countries.
Therefore, we have a few more weeks of this war. A total cease fire will come about when Hizbullah agrees to a more-or-less reasonable Israeli-American-British proposal, and the Security Council will pass an official ceasefire resolution.
Not yet there
Sunday, when I toured the north, I got the distinct impression that we have not yet reached that stage. Senior IDF officers, their subordinates and soldiers in the field say clearly that Hizbullah is still determined to fight, and is showing resistance, even in areas the IDF has captured.
Therefore, reserve soldiers will have to re-comb the area and slowly go over the area seven-to-ten kilometers (four-to-six miles) north of the border, an area more-or-less currently controlled by the IDF.
Hizbullah soldiers are poor. In most clashes with the IDF they suffer many fatalities. Out of more than 100 tanks that have entered Lebanon since the beginning of the war, less than 10 have been hurt, and just four have been taken out of service.
But the massive numbers of katyushas and anti-tank weapons – mainly RPG 29s with double warheads ("Tandems") makes it possible to continue fighting. The IDF has gotten better. It is mainly using infantry soldiers to prevent losses from anti-tank weapons and land mines, and is careful to maintain continual movement of its forces.
This has yielded positive results, but there is no way to totally prevent casualties to our soldiers. This is war.
Lowering standards
Reservists, who have not been "spoiled" by fighting in the territories, are performing superbly in Lebanon. The problem is that the "Digital General Staff" that prepared the IDF for this war has drastically reduced the number of reserve infantry units and has not maintained high enough standards of fitness.
These units are lacking today in south Lebanon. This is one of the main reasons for the fact that the war is going slowly and without a definitive outcome. Perhaps the seven brigades currently operating in Lebanon will bring about a break soon.
