In Hizbullah zone, Israel must show its power
Baalbek operation sends sharp message to UN and world: If international community does not enforce main clauses of UN Security Council resolution, Israel will
The ceasefire has created a twilight zone whereby Israeli military pressure on Hizbullah has been halted, but the multi-national forces have yet to be deployed throughout Lebanon. Even those Lebanese politicians who would like to see Hizbullah restrained are still unable to act, and the Lebanese army is too weak to enforce the arms embargo mandated by the UN Security Council.
Hizbullah along with its Syrian and Iranian patrons fears that current situation will not last long enough, and in a few weeks from now it will become more difficult for the group to rearm.
Therefore, they are making a marked effort to quickly restock their arsenals with antitank missiles and long range rockets. They are also deploying members of the Revolutionary Guard to assist Hizbullah in rehabilitating the group's capabilities.
Should Hizbullah rearm, it could deter the Lebanese government and the multi-national forces - once they are established - from "over" enforcing Security Council Resolution 1701, allowing Hizbullah to resume its operations at full force should the ceasefire be violated.
Fire could reignite at any time
Hizbullah and Israel believe that armed confrontation could be reignited at any time. Hizbullah cannot operate freely in the south of Lebanon because of the close proximity of IDF troops, the Lebanese and UNIFIL forces deployed in the area, and because of the civilian population's resistance stemming from its desire to rehabilitate its ruins.
The IDF has imposed tight air and sea blockades over Beirut, and members of other ethnic groups are closely following Hizbulah's every move. Therefore, Hizbullah's urgent need to rearm is primarily taking place in the Shiite area which is almost autonomous in the Bekaa Valley and surrounds the city of Baalbek.
This area is also in close proximity to the Syrian border, and has several smuggling routes that can be used to transport combat equipment and fighters, and it is where Hizbulla's principle logistic command and headquarters relocated to from Beirut during the war.
Similar twilight zone experiences
Israel has vast experience in similar twilight zone situations that were quickly taken advantage of by Arab sources in order to dissolve UN Security Council resolutions, and to enhance their advantage in the next round of the war.
That's how, for example, immediately after the War of Attrition ceasefire came into force, Egypt advanced its ground-to-air missiles supplied by the USSR, to the Suez Canal area, although this was explicitly forbidden in the agreement.
Israel exercised self restraint which resulted in heavy losses to our air force two years later, in the opening phases of the Yom Kippur War. Shielded by these missiles, Egypt succeeded in transferring two armored divisions to Sinai.
Determined to stop Hizbullah from re-arming
This is why Israel is determined to prevent the Hizbullah from realigning and rehabilitating its capabilities, in its effort to prevent it from taking advantage of the military vacuum created by the ceasefire declaration.
The Israeli government openly declared that it would not hesitate to use force even at the cost of international condemnation. Therefore, the army is continuing to gather military intelligence from Lebanese territory from the air and the ground by use of electronic technology.
The commando operation carried out Friday night in the Baalbek area foiled such an attempt, which is likely, therefore, not to be the last. The IDF has not revealed the intelligence information that let to the commando raid, but from the fragmented bits of information revealed in the Lebanese media, it becomes quite evident that the target was the headquarters used by Hizbullah's senior members, where they coordinated and liaised the smuggling of arms, equipment and forces from Syria.
It appears that this headquarters is a vital link in the chain of the "land arms convoy," which is currently transferring emergency aid to Hizbullah - targeting these headquarters could foil the effort.
Of course it could have been targeted from the air; however a ground raid also allows for the gathering of important intelligence information and may even present opportunities to target key persons.
Heavy battle in Baalbek
The details currently known about this commando operation attest that a heavy battle took place. This proves that the headquarters, located in a wadi 15 kilometers west of Baalbek, was highly secured, as is befitting of a central military nerve center.
We can only hope that the operation achieved its primary goals, as announced by the military spokesperson, despite the heavy cost.
We can also assume that this operation had a political target. By executing the operation, Israel sent a clear message to the UN and other countries that if the international community would not enforce the main clauses of the UN Security Council resolution – Israel would.
This applies to the arms embargo imposed on Hizbullah as well as to other matters. The return of our abducted soldiers, for example.
