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Unpredictable US elections
Democratic victory in America would impact Israel too
Ladies and gentlemen, elections are just a month away. On November 7th we'll be going to the polls. No not the Israelis, but the Americans. The founders of American democracy have partially separated between their elections for the presidency and elections for Congress.
Therefore, coming this November, in the midst of Bush's second term in office, a third of the senate and the entire legislative body will be replaced: Namely, 33 senators and 36 new state governors will be elected.
The elections are regional. The candidates run in their own constituencies, and the winner, even if by a single vote – takes the cake.
| About Iraq... |
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| Iraq's failed policy / Prof. Alon Ben-Meir |
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The longer American troops linger, the weaker elected government becomes. It seen as no more than an American tool in the service of Washington’s own narrow agenda |
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What's in store for November 7th? Leading political analysts predict the strengthening of the Democrats and the weakening of the Republicans – but not to the extent that would relieve them of power. The Republican majority in the senate (10 senators) and in the House of Congress (30 representatives) is likely to diminish, but not be annulled. Is this a revolution? The word has yet to be uttered by serious analysts.
Yet, the 2006 election campaign is likely to be surprising; the ruling president's party may be severely punished by the electorate. Neither local issues nor the characteristics of the candidates are at the focus of this campaign. Had this been the case, the Republicans would have maintained their strength. Their attractive candidates and the positive economic situation have given them a strong tail wind.
The Americans will go to the polls with unemployment low, taxes slashed, the economy continuing to grow, inflation subsiding, the cost of gas dropping, reasonable interest rates, and the real-estate bubble gradually emptying without undermining the standard of living. Meanwhile, stock exchanges reach new heights and government deficit is lower than the frightening scenarios.
True, imports to the US are USD 850 billion higher than exports, and this staggering difference is covered by countries such as China, Saudi Arabia and Russia - and this development is sickening. But how many voters in the cities really take an interest in deficits or in balance of payments? Just a few.
They do, however, take an interest in the war in Iraq, and it is pushed to the top of every debate. The majority of the American public does not understand what is going on in Iraq at present, what the US army is doing there, against whom it is fighting, and for what.
Embarking on the war is now perceived as being a mistake, and continued embroilment there is regarded as a shortcoming by an incompetent administration that is blindly pursuing unrealistic dreams to force democracy on a far-off, cruel and blood-soaked Arab country.
The Bush administration suffered two heavy blows regarding Iraq in recent weeks:
Firstly, the National Intelligence Estimate emphasized the clear contribution the war in Iraq had on strengthening Muslim terror (the conflict in Iraq feeds the revulsion towards the US in the Muslim world, and widens global Jihad support for it, the NIE noted).
Next, the book by Bob Woodward, a senior investigative reporter, appeared on the shelves. In the book, entitled State of Denial, Woodward shifts his once positive stance towards the war in Iraq. He argues that the Bush Administration is running the war unprofessionally, incompetently, and without know-how, along with jarring conflicts in the halls of power, while living in a state of denial vis-à-vis reality on the ground.
In the book, which professes to be factual and filled with revelations but in practice is primarily polemic, Woodward explains why the Americans shouldn't be in Iraq: This country is destined to sink into an interethnic bloodbath, and that the US is only involved because of Bush's fantasies and ideological stubbornness.
Woodward is not a left winger, and he knows how to adapt himself to popular tastes. His book, which was recently published with all the publicity fanfare a month prior to elections, will inflict inconceivable damage on the Republicans.
Could the Republicans lose the reigns at Congress? The statistical probability is low; the political probability, however, makes it possible.
If those disenchanted by Bush and Congress (from among the traditional Republican electorate) don't turn up at the polls, the Democrats are likely to win. Such victory would be interpreted as a national defeat to Bush and Rice's foreign policies, with grave implications on us as well.
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