Peretz's dead end

It's rather late for this my friends, very late. When the question of the portfolio given to Labor's chairman was put to public debate upon his joining the Olmert coalition, almost all the media outlets spoke in a single voice.

Commentators and experts alike, who hold varying political views, united under the banner of "we need a defense minister with a civilian background." They told Peretz that the defense portfolio was just right for him. Yes, the defense portfolio, and not the finance portfolio.

Heated newspaper articles are now calling for Peretz's resignation; the same sources that had initially gone out of their way to support his appointment. Their main argument at the time was socioeconomic and they managed to convince Peretz of this as well: Amir Peretz in the post of defense minister, argued those supporting the appointment, could help cut billions of dollars from the defense budget to be directed to fighting poverty.

I had a different stance at the time, a clear minority view. I wrote here that he was not suitable for the post of defense minister. I even appealed to him via the newspaper: "Please Amir Peretz, give up the idea of the Defense Ministry." I warned him that commentators and colleagues were "setting him up."

Three leading economic figures - the Governor of the Bank of Israel Professor Stanley Fischer, Chairman of Bank Hapoalim Shlomo Nehama, and businessman Benny Gaon - were quoted in interviews as saying that Peretz was qualified and could be a good finance minister, even a very good one - at the Treasury, not at the Defense Ministry.

But Peretz wouldn't listen. He said he had no choice, because Kadima would never give up the finance portfolio and in the post of defense minister he would be able to pave the way to the premiership. Both these arguments were unfounded. Olmert had no choice but to include the Labor party in the government and had Peretz insisted on it, he would have got it.

With regards to the political argument that the path to the premiership passes through the Defense Ministry, one would do well to look at Binyamin (Fouad) Ben-Eliezer or Moshe Arens' career. As far as I know, both were not, and are unlikely to ever become prime ministers.

Peretz erred when he took the defense portfolio, but Olmert also erred in giving it to him. Upon the establishment of the Olmert cabinet, I was very pessimistic about his performance as a defense minister and I consistently expressed my opinion, namely: That he would be well advised to leave the defense ministry in favor of an economic or social ministry.

Change of heart

The people who prompted Amir Peretz to take up the defense portfolio now say they have had a change of heart "after losing the war in Lebanon." As proof of this they are presenting public polls according to which 70 to 80 percent of Israelis believe that Peretz is unsuitable for the post.

Friends - since when did you start relying so strongly on opinion polls? In opinion polls conducted immediately after the elections, 75 percent of respondents said Peretz was unsuitable for the post of defense minister. And how did you respond then? Opinion polls are not important, you said, the public will eventually open up to Peretz's capabilities.

With regards to Peretz's "failure" in Lebanon, I will quote a section from an article by Nahum Barnea published in the prestigious American publication Foreign Policy:

"Israel did not decisively win the war against Hizbullah, but nor did it lose… despite the blistering criticisms of the Israel Defense Forces’ performance, Israel achieved its primary objectives: It forced Hizbullah out of the south of Lebanon and weakened the militia’s capabilities considerably. The Israeli public expected more."

Peretz's real term at the Defense Ministry is over, whatever he says in his public addresses. He can only remain in office as a lame and wing-clipped duck. Can he move to the Treasury? It's too late now.

Considering his performance at the Defense Ministry and the sweeping negative assessments of his performance, appointing Peretz to the post of finance minister is no longer a viable option. Such a move would present clear and immediate dangers to market stability.

I have no doubt that had Peretz taken the finance portfolio eight months ago, he would have succeeded in this post – but what ought to have been done in the spring can't be done in winter. Eight months in Israeli politics is a very long time. Olmert and Peretz are learning that now, the hard way.