Iranian threat exaggerated, expert says
Senior arms researcher: Nuclear attack, however serious, would not destroy country
Dr. Yitzhak Ravid, former head of military studies at the Armament Development Authority (RAFAEL), said that exaggerated analyses of the Iranian threat capability played straight into Tehran's hands, and aided Iran's attempt to frighten Israelis.
"A 20 kiloton nuclear bomb over Tel Aviv would kill 20,000-25,000 people, not 250,000 as has been claimed," Ravid said. "Such an attack is very serious, but it is not the end of the Zionist dream," he added.
Ravid said the Iranian regime was struggling to produce a first generation-type nuclear bomb, which has the same power as the bomb dropped on Hiroshima during the Second World War. He argued that the Iranians faced a major challenge in attempting to fit such a bomb onto a missile that could carry the weight of a nuclear warhead to Israel.
The analyst noted that an image of an Iranian 'missile' test, widely circulated around the Israeli media, were actually images of rockets, not missiles.
"Never in human history have more than one Shihab missile been successfully test fired," Ravid said. "And the Shihabs themselves are very limited. They are actually a scud-sized missile."
Rockets, not missiles (Photo: AP)
Ravid referred to a quote by Uzi Rubin, head of ballistic missile research for the Ministry of Defense, who said, "The Iranians are almost frantic in volunteering information about their weapons capabilities, sometimes to the point of incredulity… they are meant to impress before they are meant to be used in anger."
Taking the example of the threat posed by missiles carrying chemical warheads, Ravid said: "More harm is caused to people by attempts to prepare for such an attack, than harm which would be caused by a direct hit by such a missile."
He noted that during the 1991 Gulf War, suffocation by mishandling of gas masks killed more people than Scud missiles.
"This exaggeration causes damage in terms of anxiety, and pressured diplomatic activity," Ravid concluded. His comments were challenged by Dr. Reuven Pedatzur, senior lecturer of strategic studies at Tel Aviv University.
"In Hiroshima, 120,000 people were killed, and Tel Aviv has a higher population. How could 20,000 be killed?" he asked.
Calls for open deterrence
Some members of the audience said the time had arrived for Israel to take up open nuclear deterrence.
Former Knesset Member and one-time Israeli Air Force pilot Eliezer "Cheetah" Cohen told the panel, "In Iran there is a city called Qom. It contains 3000 top clerics. Qom should be the first target of the IDF. We should let Ahmadinejad know that if any nuclear missiles come our way, Qom and Tehran will disappear from the map."
"We will indeed threaten Tehran and Qom, once we take up an open policy of nuclear deterrence," Pedatzur replied.
