Yaakov Amidror
צילום: גבי מנשה
Do not interfere, for now
For time being, Israel should prepare diplomatic campaign, military operation
Israel should observe Gaza from the sidelines with great concern but it should not interfere for the time being. Israeli interference in developments in the Gaza Strip may be interpreted as if Israel was the one that prompted the war and that it tried to determine who the victor would be.
At this stage it looks like a Hamas victory is assured and Israel must prepare itself in the diplomatic arena to unequivocally present a firm international position that de-legitimizes the Hamas government. Efforts must be made to persuade the Norwegian government, which until now was the only European country to engage in any substantial contacts with the Hamas government, before the national unity government was dissolved by Mahmoud Abbas.
Only if Israel succeeds in creating the proper international atmosphere and enlists the world to recognize the fact that the Hamas rule is illegal will it be able to respond with force in the Gaza Strip in the future.
The price tag for boycotting Hamas will also be paid by the local population, but since it brought Hamas to power, the residents can only blame themselves. Yet despite this, Israel cannot remain indifferent vis-à-vis the humanitarian crisis in the Gaza Strip, and it must prepare to transfer aid to the population via international organizations.
In any event, official Israel and unofficial organizations here must not maintain ties with Hamas.
In parallel to diplomatic efforts and provision of humanitarian aid, Israel must also prepare to employ military force in the event that Qassam rocket fire on the Negev communities continues under the Hamas regime, or if intelligence officials warn that Hamas is being aided by Iranian elements and by others in a bid to build a long-range firing and military capability inside Gaza, similar to Hizbullah.
Such signs are evident even now, yet if they continue to grow Israel would have to weigh massive military intervention.
A military maneuver inside the Gaza Strip would only be efficient and end the Qassam rocket fire if the IDF occupied the areas from which rockets were being fired and at the same time disconnected the Strip from Egypt.
This would be carried out in order to prevent future acquisition of long-range missiles and weapons that would turn Hamas into an army of sorts.
However, simply occupying the area would not produce anything substantial unless we stay there for many years. Any military maneuver that would involve deploying and redeploying forces after a few weeks or months would be superfluous and harmful.
As the IDF's Defensive Shield campaign demonstrated in the West Bank, substantial achievements in fighting terror can be made via military means.
Just as Qassam rockets are not being fired on Kfar Saba from Qalqiliya, we can also reach a situation whereby Qassam rockets are not fired on Sderot.
Yaakov Amidror is a former deputy head of IDF Intelligence
