Several weeks ago Israel could have reached a deal that would have returned abducted soldier Gilad Shalit. The cost was the release of prisoners that constitute Hamas' entire military backbone in the West Bank, a backbone that the Shin Bet internal security service and the IDF managed to dismantle and send to prison.
This is a hefty cost, perhaps too heavy to bear. It may have brought the situation in the West Bank closer to the situation prevalent in Gaza.
The Shalit affair must be resolved in a deal. The right approach is "yes, at a hefty cost, but not at any cost." Yes, it would threaten our security and create a sense of national humiliation, but it shouldn't come at the cost of any threat.
The timing of the deal and its cost will ultimately be decided on by the prime minister's gut feeling: It's his responsibility and his alone. No Shin Bet expert would spare him this cruel dilemma. When he decides to accept the deal, he would do well to enlist the political elite ahead of time, from Benjamin Netanyahu to Ehud Barak. When a wave of regret hits the public he will need all the support he can get.
As to the public's shifting character, the following story is telling: An ear, nose and throat physician living in Tel Aviv made the lion's share of his money from traditional Shabbat dinners. Patients would come to him with a fishbone stuck in their throats.
How much does it cost, they would ask frugally when the bone was finally extracted. "Half of what you would have been willing to pay when the bone was still stuck in your throat," he would respond.
The release of the Shalit audio tape is good news, whatever way we look at it. Primarily, it affirms what Gilad Shalit's parents discovered from other sources: He is alive and well. Secondly, it was provided free of charge. Thirdly, it ostensibly proves that it is not a remote clan that is holding Gilad Shalit, but rather, he is under the control of Hamas.
Even if the recording of the tape and its distribution were more related to the marking of a year to his captivity and the Sharm el-Sheik summit just coincided with it by chance, it all points to an intelligent and well-organized maneuver.
From now on, Hamas leaders will find it difficult to shirk the responsibility for Shalit's fate. This hot potato is now in Hamas' mouth.
Olmert returned Tuesday evening from Sharm el-Sheik with a sense that the rise of Hamas has united the four governments represented there. The release of 250 Fatah prisoners was a surprise he prepared for his colleagues at the summit. They responded positively: "It was more than expected," Mubarak's, Mahmoud Abbas and King Abdullah's advisors told Olmert's people.
Olmert reached this figure after tough deliberations with the Shin Bet. He is convinced that it is a grand gesture that strengthens Abbas in the eyes of his public. This figure is less impressive when compared to the lofty talks of embarking on a new path in the Middle East.
What remains to be seen is which of the prisoners will be released and what role they will play in the future; will they return to the path of terror or the opposite?
The answer to this would morally empower Abbas to advance dialogue with Israel. Release of prisoners in the past led to two developments: It emboldened Hamas while also leading to a more tenacious call for an agreement with Israel.
Olmert went to Sham el-Sheik with the hope that the rift between Fatah and Hamas would receive the Arab world's blessing. He was disappointed. Instead of sanctioning Abbas' severing of ties with Hamas, in his public address Mubarak called on him to restore Arab unity.
Unity means a return to the former situation, a joint cabinet shared by Fatah and Hamas. From Israel's point of view, this is a disaster.
Mahmoud Abbas is one thing while the release of Gilad Shalit is another. It's high time we embark on direct dialogue, with all the unease that it may entail. The government should aspire to release Gilad Shalit with minimum damage. All the rest - the etiquette, the principles and the political reservations - are just a drop in the ocean.
RSS
