Soldiers being evacuated after Qassam rocket lands on Zikim army base
Photo: Amir Cohen
What's next in Gaza?
Will Qassam rocket on Zikim army base lead to second Operation Defensive Shield in Gaza?
Will the landing of the Qassam rocket inside the army base of Zikim early Tuesday morning expedite a wide-scale operation in the Gaza Strip? The southern command and the entire IDF is vigilantly awaiting the solution to this question which has become increasingly more urgent for the political establishment.
Just last week Defense Minister Ehud Barak hinted that a wide-scale operation in the Gaza Strip may be imminent. The incident in the Zikim army base will no doubt expedite such an eventuality, but it is not clear whether it will actually signal the opening shot.
"A military campaign is no light matter. Many considerations must be taken into account – including casualties on our side – therefore the decision is not an easy or a simple one," a military source explained following Tuesday morning's incident.
Meanwhile the IDF is likely to expand its pinpointed operations in the north of the Strip. In the next few days we are likely to witness more in-depth, prolonged and comprehensive operations in rocket-launching areas. Simultaneously, an order may be issued to also act against senior terror operatives, not only "ticking bombs."
In the southern command, they have long completed a contingency plan for an operation in Gaza – from a small scale operation and up to a large scale ground assault. Training has also been carried out ahead of the day of order.
The green light has not yet been given by the political establishment, and the IDF is sufficing with pinpointed operations. Just in recent days Golani Brigade troops uncovered 11 Qassam launchers in the area of Beit Hanoun, from where this morning's fire took place. "Clearly these operations cannot fully deal with the problem," IDF sources say.
"What is happening in the Gaza Strip in the past two years is not only evident in the firing of Qassam rockets, but rather in the Hamas army that is being built up, with all its implication," army sources say.
"Clearly such an incident once again presents questions of what action to take, it should be noted that operations to stop Qassam fire alone are not carried out, and any military maneuver is designed to fight terror in all its forms. Even if some type of operation is carried out, it will not necessarily lead to a complete cessation of rocket fire, but it does have the power to significantly damage those involved in acts of terror."
Senior officers note that the firing of every Qassam rocket has the potential to end the way it did early Tuesday morning.
"A decision to embark on a military maneuver is not based on a single incident," they say. "We must look at the overall picture of recent events – and it is of concern not only because soldiers have been injured, but because of all that has been happening in the Gaza Strip. Obviously, any event of this nature brings us closer to making weighty decisions.
