Moti Ashkenazi
Photo: Alex Kolomoisky
En route to confederation
Process of national disintegration in Mideast accelerating; is it good for Israel?
No, it won't happen tomorrow or even in a year, but the Middle East, which for decades was the most stable global region in terms of regime stability, is about to face a series of shocks and changes that will gradually change its face. At this time, we are watching the beginning of the road to a different Middle East.
The process of disintegration of the national structure that was shaped by British and French colonialism in the wake of World War I is underway. Powers that were occupied until recently under strict dictators are raising their heads. Iraq is only the first layer; the first arena where forces that were liberated by an external element are wrestling. These forces were freed from the chokehold of a dominant and repressive regime, which up until now was the distinguishing attribute of the Arabic-speaking region.
Those following Iraq honestly can see how a mutual and reckless massacre is leading to massive "ethnic mobility" that gradually shifts each of the dominant groups to the main area under their control as it was ages ago. Friction among Shiites, Sunnis and Kurds, in the form of mutual killings, takes place particularly in areas where the population intermixed over the last generations.
Iraq is gradually shaping up to become a sort of confederation, even though it seemingly maintains a central government. The level of violence we see during this process is not unusual in the region and is not new. What is being disintegrated is not the shared culture, but rather, the political structure that has been forced upon the region from the outside by a different political and diplomatic culture.
This process of change is irreversible. It's a trend that will gradually affect the stability of other countries in the region and afflict them with the same "virus," as the structure that was maintained in Iraq up until the toppling of Saddam Hussein characterizes almost every other regional country. That is, ethnic rivalry, control by a minority group via repression of the others, an attachment between the makeup of the military and defense forces and the political establishment achieved by appointing regime loyalists, abject poverty and backwardness vis-à-vis immense investment in the security forces, tight government hold over economic elements, and particularly a middle class that is too small to constitute a basis for a democratic regime.
Iran not immune either
The spread of the "virus" is the most rapid in Lebanon. There, the Shiites, with Syria's help, are threatening the western-orientated lifestyle of other ethnic groups. Yet Syria, in its efforts to swallow up Lebanon, and through its indirect involvement in Iraq, is accelerating the spread of the "virus" to its own territory as well.
Syria, with its own hands, boosts a model of separatism and internal threat on the part of the majority group, which feels discriminated against by the minority group. The Sunni majority, which includes radical Islam, is observing and closely studying what is going on both in Iraq and Lebanon. A Sunni uprising could accelerate a confederate structure in Syria as well.
Iran too is not immune to minority group demands for autonomy, and later on, a change in its national structure and formulation of a confederation. This is particularly true if we take into account that the Kurdish and Azeri minorities in Iran also closely watch the Iraq upheaval, as well as the fact that a significant part of Iranian youths are adopting western cultural values. The current radicalization could actually constitute a catalyst for a structural change in the not too distant future.
For Israel, the process of ethnic separatism on the one hand and the creation of supra-national community structure on the other hand, create a much more comfortable environment for accepting a Jewish state as an integral part of the Arabic-speaking region. This is not a fleeting "window of opportunity," but rather, a structured process. In the Middle East, one needs patience and level-headedness.
The writer was among the founders of the protest movement following the Yom Kippur War
