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The party poopers
Is rocket attack on northern town an al-Qaeda message to President Bush?
There is almost no doubt that the Katyusha rockets fired at the northern town of Shlomi Monday night were meant to convey a message to the US president, who is scheduled to land in our region Wednesday. The question is which element in Lebanon had an interest in reminding Bush of its existence in such explosive manner and what is the message it wished to convey.
Based on all the available indications, we are talking about Fatah al-Islam, a radical Palestinian group associated with the global Jihad while being inspired and guided by al-Qaeda.
In June 2007, this armed group fired 107 mm rockets at the northern town of Kiryat Shmona. Group members also planted the roadside bomb that killed eight Spanish members of the UNIFIL force in southern Lebanon. Hizbullah condemned these actions and warned group members to refrain from repeating such actions, because the activity of this Sunni-Palestinian organization in southern Lebanon undermines the Shiite Hizbullah’s monopoly in the region. In addition, Hizbullah does not want to be entangled, along with Lebanon itself, in a war with Israel before the time is right.
However, Fatah al-Islam only adheres to the al-Qaeda leadership’s and Bin Laden’s instructions. Several days ago, they issued an online order to all global Jihad activists to carry out attacks that would sabotage Bush’s visit. Therefore, it is very reasonable to assume that members of the organization were behind the short-range Katyusha attack on Shlomi Monday night.
Such 107 mm Katyushas are readily available in southern Lebanon refugee camps, particularly in Sidon, and are the weapon of choice of Palestinian guerilla and terror groups. Hizbullah almost never uses these rockets, which have a short range and feature a small size and warhead. This is why their effect is minimal. Palestinian terrorists, on the other hand, must hide their activities from both UNIFIL and Hizbullah, and therefore they use small rockets that can be easily transferred and hidden in bushes, and whose flight path is very low, which makes them more difficult to detect by radar.
During bad weather conditions, as was the case in the north on Monday, the firing of a small rocket can look like lightening on the radar screens. Moreover, harsh weather conditions where visibility is close to zero enable rocket launchers to approach the border undetected under the noses of Lebanese and UNIFIL troops holed up in their posts.
It is also possible that the short-range rockets were fired by members of other Palestinian groups. Ahmed Jibril’s group, for example, also uses such rockets. However, Hizbullah, which is currently entangled in a sensitive political struggle in Lebanon and also wants a prisoner swap deal, has a clear interest in maintaining the border with Israel quiet at this time. Other Palestinian organizations have no interest in challenging Hizbullah’s monopoly on fighting Israel in southern Lebanon. Therefore, it is very reasonable to assume that the rocket attack was the work of Fatah al-Islam, which at this time desperately needs to show proof that it is alive and kicking.
Most group members are Palestinians, while some came from other countries and enlisted to the cause of global Jihad. The organization is led by a Palestinian who in the past enjoyed Syria’s patronage and is currently in Lebanon. Just like him, most group members fought the Americans and Shiites in Iraq
However, at the beginning of 2007, when Iraqi Sunnis were fed up with their presence, they moved to Lebanon, established themselves in Palestinian refugee camps, and embarked on terror activity in the Lebanese arena. Their main base was in the Nahr al-Bared refugee camp in northern Lebanon.
However, last spring, after group members carried out several robberies and attacks in the Tripoli area, the Lebanese army attacked them with the backing of all Lebanese sects, including Shiite and Hizbullah. The campaign lasted for several months and claimed the lives of hundreds of Palestinians and Lebanese soldiers. Eventually, the Lebanese army was able to take over the camp. Fatah al-Islam members who survived and were not detained escaped, and found a shelter in Palestinian refugee camps in southern Lebanon, in the Sidon region. This is where they are operating from now.
Their main objective is to end the fragile armistice on the Lebanon-Israel border and get Hizbullah and Lebanon mixed up in a war with Israel. This would be their sweet revenge for the defeat they suffered in Nahr al-Bared. Their immediate objective, which led to the firing of the rockets at northern Israel, was to remind Bush that al-Qaeda is far from surrendering despite the blow it suffered in Iraq, and that it has the power to “set the Mideast on fire under America’s feet.”
Bush’s trip is interpreted by al-Qaeda leaders as an attempt to capitalize on the success of the US administration in the Annapolis Conference and as a milestone in ending the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Bin Laden, via Fatah al-Islam, is doing everything in his (limited) power to ruin the party. And what will Israel do? We can assume that as we are talking about a local organization, and whose activists are hard to detect, the IDF will refrain from responding to the attack this time around.
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