IDF in Gaza. Clinging to a strategy of intermittent surgical strikes
Photo: AFP
In praise of long-term vision
Pointless military operations should be replaced by lucid goals, clear plan
The immediate trigger for this piece was a comment made by an IDF official last week in the wake of mounting Hamas violence in Gaza. “It appears that the deterrence and effect of operation Warm Winter have dissipated,” the senior officer said. “Hamas
is back to operating more frequently.” Come again?
“There is no doubt that the scope of casualties on the Palestinian side, among terror organizations, is significant and conveys a clear message,” a military official said at the time, reflecting the common perception regarding the incursion.
A reminder: At the end of February, IDF forces embarked on a major Gaza operation in the face of ongoing rocket attacks. Several days of fighting did not curb the Qassams or result in any other strategic accomplishment. Yet more than 100 Palestinians were killed, prompting officials to play up the deterrence angle.
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Yet less than two months after the “message was conveyed,” we are told that any deterrence value that may have resulted from Warm Winter is long gone. Or in other words, it appears that the operation’s effect largely amounted to nil. Zero. Zilch. A big bad nothing seems to have changed since we sent our troops into battle. If anything, recent developments suggest that Hamas is increasingly complementing its rocket fire with more daring and lethal guerilla attacks.
Are targeted killings effective?
This piece does not aim to advocate one policy or another, but rather, takes aim at a more fundamental concern: The need to formulate lucid and well thought out long-term objectives, outline the steps needed to “get there,” and proceed with a clear plan of action that would take us to the “promised land.”
To illustrate the point, let’s focus on IDF surgical strikes on terror leaders. The common wisdom is that these targeted killings are among the most effective anti-terrorism measures. Proponents often point to the army’s 2004 assassination campaign that culminated in the killing of top figures Yassin and Rantissi and “brought Hamas to its knees,” desperate for a ceasefire.
A narrow analysis of the dry facts seems to back this conclusion. Yet what if we step back and analyze the bigger picture from a wider perspective? Hamas’ desire for a truce was followed by a rather lengthy ceasefire, which enabled the terror group to grow stronger and reinforce its status among Palestinians. Hamas then proceeded to score a stunning elections victory in early 2006, subsequently followed by its brutal Gaza coup in 2007.
In short, the “successful round of assassinations” had no effect in the long-term. Yet does it mean that targeted killings don’t work? Or alternately, that only an unabated campaign sustained overtime will be effective? Unfortunately we have no answer, as our leaders have opted not to decide one way or another. Instead, the IDF has clung to a strategy of intermittent surgical strikes, which predictably have had no lasting impact. In any case, Hamas seems to have grown much stronger since the 2004 assassination surge.
Gaza takeover a grave Hamas mistake?
But wait a second, is Hamas’ Gaza takeover indeed a great victory for the group? Despite the knee-jerk tendency to adopt the Islamist enthusiasm here, some observers seem to think otherwise. Among the most prominent is Mideastern affairs expert Guy Bechor, who is consistently arguing that the Gaza coup was a grave Hamas mistake. The group in fact locked itself up in a narrow prison, isolated from the world, while prompting an irreparable schism within Palestinian society, Bechor says.
But what do our leaders think? Do we want to keep a weak Hamas alive in Gaza? If so, let’s take the steps that would ensure this happens in the long run. Do we think that ultimately there is no choice but to talk to Hamas? If so, let’s come up with a plan that would get us there. Or perhaps we should aim to deliver a decisive military blow that would eliminate Hamas once and for? If we think it’s possible, let’s devise the most effective strategy to achieve this.
Any one of these options warrants a thorough analysis that takes into account potential implications and possible contingencies. Yet it seems both our political and military leaders are content with the tired clichés: A solution will take time, there is no answer, we will keep hitting them, we are committed to peace, etc.
Once upon a time, there were leaders here who had the fortitude, courage, and wisdom to truly lead us into new horizons. Our first Prime Minister, David Ben-Gurion, is quoted as saying: I don't know what the people want, but I know what is needed by the people of Israel. Is there anyone like that out there today who can think long-term, craft a vision, and make it happen?
