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Ron Ben-Yishai

Forecast for the next decade

Part 2: Ron Ben-Yishai says Palestinians won’t have a state, but Iran will possess nukes

Ron Ben-Yishai continues his analysis of what lays ahead for Israel in the next decade:

 

  • As to our northern front, and I hope I am proven wrong here, we will likely see another war. I am daring to assume that this confrontation, should it take place, will end with a clear Israeli victory. That is: After about two weeks of aerial and ground combat, the missile and rocket attacks from Syria and Lebanon will end or be limited to several dozen short-range rockets a day. Syria and Lebanon will plead for a Security Council ceasefire.

 

  • Israel will suffer significant destruction of property, but the number of casualties among civilians would be relatively small. In Syria and Lebanon, on the other hand, the extent of devastation and casualties would be unprecedented in the history of Mideastern wars. Iran will issue threats and may send a symbolic force to Syria, but it will not be involved in the fighting.

 

  • Following the war and as a result of it, diplomatic negotiations will be launched that will see Israel agree to partial withdrawal on the Golan Heights as well as the demilitarization an the area that extends up to the Sea of Galilee. Syria will in turn agree to lease the rest of the Golan to Israel for a period of 99 years, and would also accept internationally monitored security arrangements and phased normalization of ties.

 

  • In Lebanon, Hizbullah will continue to be the dominant force – yet as a result of the war, Iranian support for the organization will weaken and it would be forced to compromise and share power with other sects in the country. Meanwhile, its appetite for yet another confrontation with Israel will grow smaller.

 

  • It is reasonable to assume that even in 10 years we will not see the establishment of a Palestinian state in the West Bank and Gaza Strip. The talks will continue and may even lead to a “shelf agreement,” yet it’s doubtful whether it will be implemented. The Palestinian people’s political maturation process, which would enable them to assume responsibility for themselves and for the security of their neighbors, will continue, but it will not be reaching the required critical mass. This apparently won’t happen until the radical Islamic wave will fade.

 

  • It is also doubtful whether Israel will see the emergence of a government with the political power required to dismantle the settlements and outputs located beyond the large settlement blocs. Therefore, we will likely witness, in the next 10 years, more than one wide-scale IDF operation in Gaza, as well as yet another Intifada or two in the West Bank. The result would be reinforcement of Gaza as a separate entity. It would be jointly managed by a multinational force and a Palestinian coalition that would also include Hamas.

 

  • Israel will construct a “smart” wall around the Strip that will prevent direct fire and the digging of tunnels. This wall will feature crossings for goods and people, yet most supplies and movement into and out of the Strip – including goods, fuel, and electricity – will come via Egypt. The Rafah Crossing will become the main crossing. Meanwhile, the airport that Israel built years ago will serve as the Strip’s airport. A seaport will be under construction as well as a large desalination plant.

 

  • In the West Bank we will likely see a new political force rise up on the ruins of the old and corrupt Fatah. Mahmoud Abbas will step down, as will other members of the “Tunisia generation.” The new political movement will be headed by a collective leadership that will be based on Arafat’s Fatah young guard (either with or without Barghouti.) This group, most of whose members spent time in Israeli prisons, will be better equipped to engage in dialogue and agree on a compromise with Israel. After the third Intifada will die down, Israel will dismantle several isolated outposts and settlements and hand over more territory to the Palestinian Authority.

 

  • Along the borderlines with the Palestinians, Egyptians, and in the north we will see a fence or wall that will feature advanced technological means, thereby requiring less troops. In the West Bank, the Shin Bet and IDF will continue to engage in anti-terror activity in its current format, but they will have more technological means at their disposal. The major change will be the absence of roadblocks within the West Bank, thereby allowing for free Palestinian movement. Orderly and well-equipped border crossings – between the West Bank and Israel and between the West Bank and Jordan – will enable controlled, secure, and relatively quick movement.

 

  • As noted, I estimate that Iran will possess military nuclear capabilities in 10 years. Tehran will not admit to this, but hint at it. The United States and Israel will not be putting the military option into practice. However, the international community will tighten the sanctions and economic siege on Iran based on the assumption that skyrocketing food prices and ecological disasters will increase the Ayatollah regime’s dependency on developed countries, and mostly on the world’s leading food producer – the United States.

 

It is very possible that in 10 years, and maybe even before that, we will see the opening of negotiations between Tehran and the West in line with the North Korean model. The Ayatollahs will bargain with the West on a “nukes in exchange for grain” deal.

 

At the end of the negotiations, Iran will agree to reveal and dismantle its military nuclear capabilities and subject them to monitoring in exchange for the lifting of sanctions and ongoing supply of food and other aid. Another reasonable possibility is that due to the food crisis pressure and other domestic problems, the Ayatollah regime will collapse, and the Jews shall rejoice, God willing.  

 


פרסום ראשון: 05.08.08, 20:18
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