Harsh response needed
Israel must make it clear to world, Hamas that it will not tolerate attacks from Gaza
An Israeli response to the roadside bombing in the Kissufim area must hold strategic meaning, and not only because of the attack’s lethal results. The Israeli response may determine whether the ceasefire will be full, long-term, and stable, or whether it will collapse shortly.
Should Israel show restraint, or should the IDF make do with a local response, we may reinforce a situation whereby Hamas and its affiliates indeed put an end to the rocket fire, yet continue to operate across the Strip. First they will target IDF patrols, and later move on to launch attacks across the fence, targeting nearby Israeli communities. Precisely now, with Egypt negotiating with Hamas on the terms for a long-term ceasefire, Israel must make it clear that it would not tolerate such state of affairs.
It doesn’t matter whether Hamas initiated or carried out the attack on the IDF patrol that traveled within Israeli territory Tuesday morning, or whether one of the other armed groups in the Strip initiated the attack as a provocation or as an act of revenge. Israel must make clear to Hamas that as long as it rules the Strip, it is also responsible for what goes on there and will pay a heavy price for any violent act or terror attack that originates in the areas under its control. Therefore, the response must be harsh, even if it prompts the renewal of rocket fire on the south, and even if the IDF ultimately needs to re-enter the Strip. Otherwise, we shall see a similar situation to that which prevailed on the Lebanon border following Israel’s withdrawal.
Hamas seeks Hizbullah-style deal
The freedom enjoyed by Hizbullah along the border fence since 2000 ultimately led to the ambush that prompted Israel to embark on the Second Lebanon War. Based on the experience we accumulated vis-à-vis Hamas, the quiet along the Gaza border will not continue in line with these terms for six years, but rather, much less. It is reasonable to assume that if Hamas and other armed factions in the Strip understand that they can be present next to the fence and operate there, this ceasefire won’t hold for even six months.
Notably, the negotiations between Hamas and Israel, via Egyptian mediation, are still ongoing. They are supposed to end with an agreement that would go into effect on February 5th. Until that time, both sides are supposed to hold their fire in line with unilateral decisions they took. Yet as always, once the main bout of fighting ends, both sides attempt to improve the terms to be formulated at the negotiating table by setting facts on the ground.
Hamas is now attempting to secure a similar agreement to the one between Israel and Hizbullah in the
wake of operation Grapes of Wrath in 1996. Back then, both sides agreed to take civilians out of the combat equation. However, clashes between Hizbullah fighters and IDF soldiers along the border were considered legitimate.
Tuesday morning’s incident may constitute a precedent that would reinforce Hamas’ demand. Therefore, Israel must produce a response that would also constitute a precedent and example of what would happen if its demand for a demilitarized buffer zone above and below ground that extends at least 500 meters into Gaza will not be accepted.
