Diplomatic considerations in Gaza
Israeli response to latest rocket attacks must take diplomatic efforts into account
Part 2. To Part 1
There is also a diplomatic aspect to the question of Israel’s response to the latest rocket attacks from Gaza. On Tuesday, Hamas’ delegation was supposed to return to Cairo with answers to Egypt’s truce proposals. This was to be followed by yet another round of talks meant to bring about an official deceleration, agreed upon by all sides, on a stable long-term ceasefire on February 5th. This is at least what the Egyptians want.
However, there is room for concern that lack of Israeli response to the latest rocket and mortar fire on the western Negev would prompt Hamas to adopt tougher positions in the negotiations.
Therefore, the Israeli interest apparently requires another show of force, which may possibly include yet another IDF ground incursion in the Gaza Strip, in order to again demonstrate to Hamas the price of its delays. Such move would also serve to prompt Hamas it to enforce the ceasefire on the smaller organizations that do not have any government responsibility and are interested in fanning the flames.
There are indications that Hamas is already doing it, although meekly. It therefore needs to be provided with incentives to act more effectively. On the other hand, should Israel respond with full force, it may sabotage the efforts undertaken by the Egyptians as well as the international community’s efforts to thwart arms smuggling to the Strip. This may also lead to further isolation of Israel in the international arena.
All of the above are important considerations faced by the government, the cabinet, and the trio of leaders (Olmert, Barak, and Livni) in Jerusalem. However, when examining the overall situation, it becomes quite clear that the provocations originating in the Gaza Strip are already gravely eroding the deterrence secured by Israel during its latest operation.
Therefore, “maintaining the deterrence” is now a critical matter for Israel, as it may determine whether the ceasefire would truly be stable and long-lasting.
