The Gilad Shalit impasse
Despite recent optimism, Shalit prisoner swap hits another dead-end
Only a few weeks ago, it appeared as though the Shalit deal is at arm’s reach. It appeared as though the parties involved in the affair – Hamas, Israel, Egypt, and also the marginalized partner, Abbas – agreed to go with the original script: A videotape in exchange for the release of female prisoners in the first phase, the release of hundreds of prisoners and Shalit’s transfer to Egypt in the second phase, and the major release of “heavy-duty detainees” along with a huge group of additional Palestinian prisoners in exchange for Shalit.
Indeed, we received a videotape, Hamas strictly adhered to all the conditions dictated by Israel, Gilad Shalit is alive, his mind is in order, and we saw a small grin too. When the released female prisoners embarked on a media celebration on the Palestinian side, it appeared that there is room for reasonable optimism around here.
Yet a senior Egyptian official intimately involved in the process is in a pessimistic mood. Please note that we are sinking into a deal that has no common thread or link to the next stage, he said in the midst of all the media chatter. As one who heard the Egyptian assessment conveyed to the Israeli side, I shall translate the message into a bottom line: There is no binding date, there is no maturity process, and mostly, there is no agreement on the date of carrying out the next stage, which will guarantee Shalit’s transfer to Egypt.
We should also note that there is no enthusiasm and no expected gain on the diplomatic, economic, or security fronts waiting for any one of the sides at the end of the road.
In everyone’s view, the moment Shalit will be pulled out of the Palestinian hellhole and taken to a resort in Cairo, the sky is the limit. However, that stage, despite the euphoria that overcame us about two weeks ago, is distancing yet again.
It is not only a matter of disagreements regarding the list of “heavy-duty prisoners.” The domestic reconciliation agreement between Fatah and Hamas is facing obstacles. The signing ceremony of this artificial reconciliation deal was put off yet again, just like experienced observers and those in the know predicted.
Affair getting more complicated
The approach currently being formulated in Cairo will lead to an absurd situation of pretend reconciliation by remote control. Yet regardless of whether a deal is signed or not, this will change nothing in respect to the Shalit deal. For Hamas, there is no rush. As long as Gaza is facing a siege and the border crossings are closed, and as long as Abbas demands to deploy his forces in Gaza, there will be no real reconciliation and no prisoner swap.
According to the original script, Shalit was meant to be the first person to travel from Gaza to Egypt via a wide open border crossing, rather than through one of the hundreds of smuggling tunnels. As long as the crossings are not opened, Shalit will remain deep underground. He will only be taken out ahead of the elections, to ensure a Hamas takeover in the West Bank too.
At this time it appears that despite the discrete dedication on the part of the German mediator and the media silence around here, this deal is stuck on all directions. We got Gilad for a moment, and immediately returned to the tunnel of darkness.
Moreover, this affair is getting more complicated: Abbas is not even thinking of granting Hamas a foothold in the West Bank, Hamas is not even thinking of granting Abbas a foothold in Gaza, the Egyptians are not even thinking of opening the Rafah Crossing, and Israel is pressing them not to open it before Gilad is out of prison.
Hamas also knows that Israel owes anything, if at all, to Abbas only. It has no interest in giving Hamas “high quality prisoners” to be used in victory parades. Did we already mention that we’re stuck?
