Israel's Q4 GDP grows 4.3-4.6%
Central bank says developed two models –direct and indirect – which enable real time predictions of gross domestic product based on monthly data
Israel's economy is thought to have grown 4.3 to 4.6% in the fourth quarter of 2010, according to new models developed by the Bank of Israel.
The central bank said on Sunday said it developed the two models – one direct and one indirect – which enable real time predictions of gross domestic product based on monthly data.
"The models enable the GDP to be predicted about two weeks after the end of the quarter – or about a month earlier than the publication by the Central Bureau of Statistics," the Bank of Israel said.
Israel typically issues preliminary GDP data six weeks after the end of the quarter.
Fourth-quarter GDP data is slated for release on Wednesday. GDP grew an annualized 4.4% in the third quarter and the bureau has already estimated provisional 2010 growth at 4.5%.
The central bank's direct model, which uses data like employment in the high-tech and manufacturing sectors, US goods exports and the price of oil, forecasts fourth-quarter GDP growth of 4.6%.
The indirect model, using foreign trade data for imports and the US purchasing managers' index for exports, imports of investment goods for investment and imports of durable goods for consumption, predicts a 4.3% growth rate in the October-December period.
The forecast error of the two models is 1.6 to 1.8 percentage points, the central bank said.
The central bank estimates 2011 economic growth at 3.8% but that figure is expected to be raised soon.
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