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Stay with the UK or break away?
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Scots start voting in independence referendum

As 4.3 million Scottish voters make their way to the polls, surveys show a close race. Why is Scotland seeking independence from the United Kingdom? And what's at stake?

People in Scotland began voting on Thursday in a referendum on whether the country should become independent or stay part of the United Kingdom.

 

 

After an intense final day of campaigning, voters turned up at polling stations in schools and halls as soon they opened at 6am GMT on a day that will decide the fate of a 307-year-old union.

 

Supporter and opposer of Scotland independence in Glasgow (Photo: AP)
Supporter and opposer of Scotland independence in Glasgow (Photo: AP)

 

The first to cast a ballot in Edinburgh's Waverley Court was a businessman who gave his name as Ron.

 

"This is a historic day for Scotland. I've waited all my life for this. It's time to break with England. 'Yes' to independence," he said after casting his ballot.

 

As he spoke, a couple of workers hurrying by shouted "Vote No!"

 

Four opinion polls on the eve of the vote showed support for independence at 48 percent compared with 52 percent for the union but a fifth showed it even closer on 49 to 51 percent.

 

The surveys also showed as many as 600,000 voters out of 4.3 million remained undecided with just hours to go before the polling stations opened.

 

Electoral officials said the result of the vote is expected by breakfast time on Friday morning.

 

Scotland's Prime Minister Alex Salmond (Photo: Reuters)
Scotland's Prime Minister Alex Salmond (Photo: Reuters)

 

A guide to Scotland's independence vote

Scotland, with little more than 5 million people, is one of the oldest countries in the world, having been united as a single nation by King Kenneth MacAlpin in the year 843. It remained an independent state for more than 800 years until the formation of Great Britain in 1707.

 

When England found itself at war with France in the early 18th century, fears that Scotland would side with the enemy prompted London to block trade and deprive Scots of property they owned south of the border unless they agreed to create a single country.

 

After much debate - and widespread Scottish hostility - both the Scottish and English parliaments were dissolved on May 1, 1707, and replaced with a new British one.

 

How is Scotland different from the rest of the United Kingdom?

Scotland has its own legal system, and the national Church of Scotland was guaranteed under the Act of Union. However, all monetary and finance matters are controlled by the government in London and the Bank of England, which was founded by Scotsman William Paterson in 1694.

 

What's at stake

A Yes vote will trigger 18 months of negotiations between Scottish leaders and London-based politicians on how the two countries will separate their institutions ahead of Scotland's planned Independence Day of March 24, 2016. The issues range from whether Scotland will use the pound as its currency to how much UK debt it should take on to how the military will be split up - and the results will affect all of the UK's 64 million people, not just the 5.3 million in Scotland. A Yes vote will also ripple across the 28-nation European Union and NATO and boost independence movements around the world, including in Spain's Catalonia region or Flanders in Belgium.

 

Scottish independence rally in George Square, Glasgow (Photo: Reuters)
Scottish independence rally in George Square, Glasgow (Photo: Reuters)

 

Centuries of union 

The parliaments of Scotland and England passed the Acts of Union that led to the creation of Great Britain in 1707 after centuries of conflict, which saw the rise of Scottish heroes like William "Braveheart" Wallace and Robert the Bruce. The union grew to become a great empire in which Scots took a leading role as inventors, artists, doctors, missionaries, engineers and intellectuals - producing luminaires such as economist Adam Smith, author Sir Walter Scott and poet Robert Burns. The global empire thrived on shipbuilding and manufacturing but fell apart after World War II as nations outside the British Isles demanded independence. Scotland has had its own parliament since 1999, although the UK government retains control of issues such as foreign policy, defense, immigration, trade and industry.

 

Truth and consequences 

Now, after 307 years of union, voters are being asked the following question: Should Scotland be an independent country? Only Scottish residents are eligible to vote but people in England, Wales and Northern Ireland will find that the outcome changes their lives as well. It could alter the balance of power in British politics, weaken the nation's economy and ultimately trigger a separate vote on whether the UK should leave the European Union.

 

No does not mean the status quo 

Britain's political leaders have promised Scotland's government more powers if voters opt to stay. As opinion polls tightened in recent days, the leaders of the three main political parties in Westminster issued a statement guaranteeing "extensive new powers" to the Scottish parliament, promising to share the nation's resources "equitably," and pledging that Scottish leaders would control funding for the National Health Service in Scotland.

 

Labour leader Ed Miliband, a member of the 'No' campaign (Photo: Gettyimages)
Labour leader Ed Miliband, a member of the 'No' campaign (Photo: Gettyimages)

 

Will the pound take a pounding? 

One of the most contentious issues has been whether an independent Scotland would retain the pound as its currency. UK leaders have said there will be no currency union. Independence leader Alex Salmond argues this is simply a campaign tactic and that politicians in Westminster will eventually agree to a currency union because it is best for both countries. Major employers such as Standard Life and the Royal Bank of Scotland have said they will move their headquarters to England if independence passes because of economic concerns.

 

Howard Archer, chief UK and European economist for IHS Global Insight, said there's likely to be a major market reaction either way: "A vote for independence is likely to result in a further appreciable sterling sell-off; a vote for Scotland to remain in the UK is likely to lead to a significant relief rally for the pound."

 

Supporter of 'Yes' campaign (Photo: AFP)
Supporter of 'Yes' campaign (Photo: AFP)

 

A boon for conseratives? 

Critics have called for Prime Minister David Cameron's head if the UK loses Scotland - but Britain's left-leaning Labour Party would also pay a high price. Scottish voters elected 41 Labour members of Parliament in the 2010 election and only one Conservative. Eliminating those Scottish votes would give the Conservatives a 37-seat majority in Parliament and allow them to form the next government without a coalition. In the long term, the loss of Scotland would make it more difficult for Labour to win future elections, potentially ushering in an era of conservative, pro-business government in Britain.

 

Another high stakes vote in the making 

A Conservative victory in 2015 would also drag Britain into yet another high-stakes vote. Cameron has promised a referendum on EU membership to appease voters who are concerned about immigration and meddling by bureaucrats in Brussels. Scotland has been very pro-EU, so losing those votes would weaken the camp that wants Britain to stay. Any British exit from the EU would have huge consequences for its economy. The EU guarantees freedom of movement for people, goods and money, making it simpler to do business across the bloc and its 500 million people.

 

Banner supporting Scottish independence in Glasgow (Photo: AFP)
Banner supporting Scottish independence in Glasgow (Photo: AFP)

 

North sea oil - riches or no? 

Salmond, the independence leader, has argued that Scotland should receive as much as 94 percent of the tax revenue generated by North Sea oil and gas production, which would help fund day-to-day government spending, with any surplus going to a fund for future generations. The independence campaign estimates that there are more than 21 billion barrels of oil equivalent in its portion of the North Sea with a market value of almost 1.3 trillion pounds.

 

But the windfall may not be as great as independence advocates hope, according to analysis by the National Institute of Economic and Social Research. While Scotland's share of North Sea revenue would have been as much as 7.4 billion pounds in recent years, an independent Scotland would lose 7.1 billion pounds a year in transfer payments it gets from the rest of the UK, according to NIESR. In addition, North Sea revenues are likely to decline in coming years as production slows, meaning Scotland may receive as little as 2.8 billion pounds in 2016-17.

 

Supporters of the 'Yes' campaign in Glasgow (Photo: Reuters)
Supporters of the 'Yes' campaign in Glasgow (Photo: Reuters)

 

In addition to oil, the Scottish government calculates the country could produce 25 percent of the EU's offshore wind and tidal energy and 10 percent of the EU's wave energy.

 

Scottish exports are worth around 100 billion pounds a year to the British Treasury, including more than 11 billion pounds from financial services, along with almost 9 billion pounds from food and drink, including whisky.

 

NATO and no nukes

The independence campaign supports continued membership in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, provided it isn't required to base nuclear weapons in Scotland. The country's strategic location would make it a "key partner in NATO's air and naval policing arrangements for northern Europe," independence advocates say. Still, if Scotland is nuclear-free, the UK would have to move its Trident nuclear missiles away from Faslane in western Scotland.

 

Voter from the 'No' campaign in Glasgow (Photo: Gettyimages)
Voter from the 'No' campaign in Glasgow (Photo: Gettyimages)

  

What have the Scots given the world?

Scotland's influence has been out of proportion to its size. The Declaration of Arbroath, asserting Scottish independence in 1320, influenced the American Declaration of Independence. A rare copy of the Scottish manuscript was given to the US National Archives by the Scottish government in 2011 in appreciation of the US Senate passing a resolution designating every April 6 as Tartan Day in the United States.

 

Over the centuries Scottish engineers, inventors, thinkers and business people helped create the modern world. James Watt helped develop the practical steam engine, Sir Alexander Fleming discovered penicillin, John Logie Baird pioneered television and Alexander Graham Bell invented the telephone.

 

It was Englishman Winston Churchill who said: "Of all the small nations on earth, perhaps only the ancient Greeks surpass the Scots in their contribution to mankind."

 

Reuters and the Associated Press contributed to this report.

 


פרסום ראשון: 09.18.14, 10:40
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