Turks vote in election set to shape Erdogan's legacy
If Erdogan wins a two-third majority in contested vote, the Turkish president could pass a new constitution, changing Turkey's government system to a US-style executive presidency and increasing his own power and influence.
Turks headed to the polls on Sunday in the closest parliamentary election in more than a decade, one that could pave the way for President Tayyip Erdogan to amass greater power or end 12 years of single-party rule for the AK Party he founded.
A deadly bombing in the mainly Kurdish southeast on Friday has magnified attention on the pro-Kurdish opposition, which is trying to enter parliament as a party for the first time. Efforts to end a three-decade Kurdish insurgency as well as Erdogan's political ambitions could hinge on that party's fate.
Turkey's most popular yet most divisive politician, Erdogan seeks a large majority for the ruling AK Party to boost his powers. He says a US-style executive presidency is necessary to bolster the regional influence and economic advances of NATO-member Turkey.
"They say 'If Erdogan gets what he wants on Sunday he will be unstoppable'," he told a rally in the northeastern province of Ardahan on Saturday.
"They actually mean Turkey will be unstoppable."
In power since 2002, the AKP is expected to again be the largest party by far. But achieving a majority may depend on the pro-Kurdish Peoples' Democratic Party (HDP) falling below the 10 percent hurdle required to enter parliament. Opinion polls put it around that level.
Turkey's economy is no longer firing on all cylinders, with growth slipping under three percent and unemployment ticking up.
And concern is growing over the alleged authoritarian tendencies of Erdogan, who ruled as premier from 2003-2014 before taking on the post of president, with an upsurge in cases against journalists and other members of the public accused of insulting him.
Erdogan wants the AKP to win a two-thirds majority in seats, which would be enough to agree a new constitution to change Turkey from a parliamentary to a presidential system where the head of state is enshrined as number one.
He argues this would be little different from democracies like France and Brazil and change an old constitution that has its origins in the 1980 military coup. Opponents fear it could mark the start of one-man rule.
However the opposition HDP, expected to come fourth, could scuttle his plans if it wins over 10 percent of the vote, which is Turkey's notoriously harsh threshold for sending MPs to parliament.
A strong showing from the second-ranked secular Republican People's Party (CHP) and third placed Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) could even force the AKP to form a coalition to stay in power for the first time since his first came to office in 2002.
While constitutionally required to stay above party politics, Erdogan has held frequent rallies during what has been a confrontational election campaign, joining Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu in attacking opposition parties.
The two have portrayed the election as a choice between a "new Turkey" or a return to a history marked by short-lived coalition governments, economic instability and military coups.
"Either the stability of the last 12 years will continue, or there will be the crisis scenario of those who want to take Turkey back to the chaos and crisis atmosphere of the 1990s," Davutoglu told a rally in the southern city of Antalya.
The election campaign has been hugely divisive, with Erdogan lashing out at enemies in all directions, including several foreign media publications like Britain's The Guardian and the New York Times, which he told to "know your place".
In his attack against the New York Times, Erdogan said the newspaper had been campaigning against Turkey's leaders going back to Ottoman Sultan Abdulhamid II, who ruled the Ottoman Empire during the final phase of its decline.
"Now, they are spitting out the same hatred on me... It's clear who their patrons are. There is Jewish capital behind it, unfortunately."
He has also concentrated his most severe fire on the charismatic leader of the HDP, Selahattin Demirtas, belittling him as a "pretty boy" who is merely a front for Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) separatist militants.
Security was tightened after the attack and some 9,000 police and gendarmerie officers were assigned for duty in Diyarbakir on Sunday. Nationwide, polling stations opened at 5 am GMT and close at 2 pm GMT with an embargo for publishing results currently fixed at 6 pm GMT. Over 53.7 million Turks eligible to vote.
Erdogan late on Friday expressed his condolences for victims of the attack, calling it a "provocation".
While he says he is equally distant from all parties, HDP leaders have accused Erdogan of whipping up sentiment against them and party deputy Idris Baluken said he and the AKP bore responsibility for Friday's attack.
"The source of the violence is the AKP, the president. For two months, we have been warning that the rhetoric would result in just this, including in our talks with the government," Baluken told Reuters.
AFP contributed to this report.
