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Photo: AFP
Scene of terror attack in Hebron, Saturday
Photo: AFP
Alex Fishman

Weekend's attacks are just the tip of the iceberg

Analysis: The Shin Bet receives warnings of 50-60 potential lone-wolf terrorists at any given time. Meanwhile, there are about 15 terrorist cells in the West Bank that have carried out shooting attacks or are planning attacks in the coming days and during the High Holy Days.

The truth must be told: No one in the defense establishment can explain why a wave of six continuous terror attacks broke out in different areas over the past weekend and early Sunday morning. But this is yet another reminder that the recent calm in the West Bank is a false one, under which there is a sizzling lava of a young generation ready to carry out self-sacrifice attacks.

 

 

The latest lone wolf attacks are only the tip of the iceberg. They are not yet the growing main threat, which has been detected by the Shin Bet in the past year: Terror cells inspired by the Islamic State, mainly in the Jerusalem area and in northern Samaria. Dozens of young people who were arrested by the Shin Bet this year had planned to carry out attacks like the ones we saw in Europe recently, such as indiscriminately firing on population centers, suicide bombings and vehicular attacks like the truck in Nice, France.

  

In previous years, these young people were looking for a way to reach Syria. Recently, the road to Syria has been blocked, and they are venting by making plans to carry out attacks inside Israel. They are much fanatic than Hamas's men. We are no longer dealing with the backyard of terror in the territories; ISIS is reaching us through the front door.

 

The lone wolf terrorist in Hebron may be - according to the IDF's deterioration scenario - the catalyst of the chain of explosion (Photo: AFP)
The lone wolf terrorist in Hebron may be - according to the IDF's deterioration scenario - the catalyst of the chain of explosion (Photo: AFP)

 

The weekend's event are unrelated to ISIS, but serve as an alarm bell which we must not take lightly. One of the reasonable scenarios for the eruption of an armed conflict between Israel and its enemies starts with a wave of violence in the West Bank or Jerusalem, which spills over into the Gaza Strip and creates a military conflict vis-à-vis the strip, lighting up the Lebanon front as well. When the Home Front Command chief talks about 2,3000 rockets hitting Israel a day, that lone wolf terrorist in Hebron may be—according to the IDF's deterioration scenario—the catalyst of the chain of explosion.

 

The wave of lone wolf attacks—which began on October 1, 2015—was curbed in April. A total of 2,563 attacks were recorded in 2015, and 1,030 were recorded in 2016 by mid September—from nearly 500 attacks in October 2015 to some 80 attacks last August.

 

The Shin Bet and IDF appear to have found the formula. The significant development in the ability to infiltrate social media led to an unprecedented achievement: The Shin Bet succeeded in detecting and stopping about 70 percent of the potential lone wolf terrorists, who framed themselves in messages and chats. The army also changed the technique for locating these terrorists on the routes and at the roadblocks, allowing soldiers to make an accurate distinction between a terrorist and an innocent citizen.

 

And so, 373 attacks were thwarted in the first half of 2016, including 160 stabbing attacks, compared to 342 thwarted attacks throughout 2015. The Shin Bet and Central Command arrest some 60 Palestinians a week, and most are taken in for interrogation and put in administrative detention.

 

Nonetheless, warnings of 50-60 potential lone wolf terrorists are received at any given time. There are about 15 local cells running around the West Bank that have carried out or are about to carry out shooting attacks. These cells, some of which are based on Hamas infrastructures, carry the potential for terror attacks in the coming days and during the upcoming Jewish holidays.

 

The IDF and Shin Bet's formula will not be able to curb the situation on the ground if the diplomatic-economic-political conditions reach a boiling point. When the Palestinian Authority accuses Israel of murdering the five terrorists, this is incitement which could light up the ground. Hamas is also making an effort to inflame the situation, on the backdrop of an internal Palestinian election campaign which could blow up as well.

 

The incitement on the Palestinian side is being curbed, for now, by the Israeli decision not to hurt the entire population. Following the recent series of attacks in the Hebron area, the IDF carried out activities with a minimum level of collective punishment. A curfew was imposed only on the town of Bani Na'im, home of the two terrorists who carried out the vehicular attack in Kiryat Arba. The forces visited the other terrorists' homes for interrogation purposes, but the ground was not flooded, apart from one battalion that arrived for reinforcement purposes in the Hebron area.

 


פרסום ראשון: 09.18.16, 15:11
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