When will Iran have a bomb?
Ronen Bergman
Published: 05.12.07, 10:58
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19 Talkbacks for this article
1. Iran ALREADY HAS nuclear weapons they bought on the Black
Rivkah   (12.05.07)
Market according to Russian defector Colonel Stanislav Lunev. They have not used them because the obviously fear the consequences. John Hogue's newsletter reports that massive amounts of jet fuel have been transported to the Persian Gulf area Fifth Fleet of the US and to US bases which is what happened before the attack on Iraq in 2003. Ezra was a contemporary of Daniel in the Bible and Ezra used the Moses Calendar, not the Babylon Jewish Calendar now used. Daniel said on the 24th day of the first month (Nissan on Moses Calendar) which is 29 April in 2008, the battle of Hidekel (Tigris) River begins. That is probably the Ezekiel chapter 32 attack on the multitude ( military) of a young lion nation with a sword of the king of Babylon that escalates into the Ezekiel chapter 38 Russia-Iran and other Moslem nations attacking Israel and going up (north) over the Arctic to attack North America. This is not Armageddon and the Lord will destroy the invading armies with an earthquake and plague that melts the eyes in Northern Israel. Damascus will be destroyed (Isaiah 17:1) and Egypt will be uninhabitable for 40 years. BRING IT ON! Let's get this over with and get closed to the messiah ruling the earth, ending Gentile world rule!
2. Risk Assessment & Intelligence.
Terry ,   Eilat, Israel   (12.05.07)
There is never 100% certainty in intelligence matters, especially about opaque regimes in totalitarian states such as Iran. The truth is known only to a few in Teheran. So, how do we judge intelligence information? It all comes down to risk & consequences with weight given to perspective. In this case, we have the following issues: 1. Public statements by the regime. They have made their intentions clear in various speeches. There is no reason not to take them at their word. 2. The nature of the regime. Here we have a totalitarian state driven by a pretty nasty ideology - if history teaches us anything, such regimes are by their very nature expansionist, aggressive, & ruthless. 3. Their own actions - they have engaged in terror attacks, they support terrorist groups such as Hezbollah & Hamas, they supply weapons to Shi'ite militias in Iraq, they have murdered thousands of political opponants within Iran. 4. They managed to develop their nuclear program undetected for 18 years, hidden by the greatest secrecy, when there was absolutely no reason to do so - and they continue to deny access to inspectors to many sites. So, how to judge the risk? It depends on your perspective & an understanding of the consequences. For the US, this is a foreign policy problem but not an existential risk. For argument's sake, suppose Iran develops a nuclear device, which is rather likely. If Iran attacks us, America has time to respond. If a nuclear device is smuggled into America & detonated in NY or Washington, while the consequences are horrendous, America will not cease to exist. On the other hand, if a nuclear device explodes in Tel Aviv, our very survival as a nation become problematic. Thus the different assessments from various intelligence agencies. For America, the risks & consequences are seriousbut they are not existential. For us, they are. We do not need 100% certainty - the probability is enough to make action necessary no matter what the consequences. If America can afford to adopt a "wait & see" attitude, we cannot. We are justified in using any & all means at our disposal in eliminating this threat.
3. The bomb?
Richard ,   London UK   (12.05.07)
The issue begins with Iraq and many commentators predicted this situation would occur, where the US's bluster towards another war would be viewed with sceptism. The US led its 'coalition' into an invasion by using deceit and invention. There was no credible evidence that Iraq had WMDs. (and who can ever forget the gross hubristic gesture of the 'victory parade' on the air craft carrier?) This latest intelligence report is a final halt to Bush's bluster. Now it is virtually impossible for him to attack Iran as oppostion to such pre-emptive action, that already exists around the world, will also be felt in the US. Is Iran fooling the world again? Did Pakistan fool the World? Isn't Israel always fooling the world on this issue? Iran is not seeking either local or world hegemony. There is absolutely no evidence of it. Instead, Iran has been at the receiving end of Western interferance for hundred of years.
4. Ultimate weapon of XX century
Damir ,   Russia   (12.05.07)
Since that the nuke somewhat lost its appeal. Immensely expensive to procure, monstruous to maintain. And then what? All the world will start pointing fingers at you and calling you names and talking about sanctions. It is bad for business. Is there any idea in the world worth losing all the profits for that case? Do not even think about using it. Next minute you lose all the allies you thought you had and receive multi-national occupation forces. Also try to explain to your own people that you did it to prevent them doing it. This is 21century and Internet has been invented already. The best Iran can hope for is to produce a bomb, explode it over themselves and try to accuse Israel in that. I can't see other sensible use for it.
JL ,   ISRAEL   (12.05.07)
6. Israel
Al ,   USA   (12.05.07)
One thing is for certain. Israel does have nukes and they literaly wiped a country of the map last year. So who is the threat??
7. Report on Iran
Brod ,   USA   (12.05.07)
The MOSSAD is the best source of information on this matter. The government should heed their report and warning. All other reports are cooked up and unreliable.
8. To Damir #4. Israel Should NOT Attack.
Maansingh ,   The Netherlands   (12.05.07)
Your TB is replete with common sense -- and I like it. In this region of the world one SHOULD remain very cool-headed. I think also that Israel should NOT attack the nuclear facilities of Iran. The nuclear facilities of Iran -- that is the problem of the world community. To Israel I would say : leave it up to the world community to take care of Iran.
9. To Richard #3. Tell That To The.
Maansingh ,   The Netherlands   (12.06.07)
You say :"Iran is not seeking local .. hegemony ". Go tell that to the Saudis, the Gulf States -- and watch their reaction ; they will laugh at your naive understanding of the world. What do you think Hezbollah is doing -- only selling perfume ? What do you think Hamas is doing -- throwing flower petals from the sky on Israel ?
10. To #1
paul malykont ,   United States   (12.06.07)
So they already have a bomb, but are afraid to use it. Isn't that how the US and USSR lived for years and finally ended their standoff? Doesn't it speak to their rational love of staying in power and staying alive? Iran has supported Hizbollah, just as Israel supported Christian militias and the Kurds years ago (before selling them out). Iran has not itself attacked anyone directly and has not used poison gas like America's ally, Iraq.She behaves like a typical nation state - not to be trusted but not to be attacked without cause.
11. Iran, inteligence and the bomb.
I. Barr ,   Detroit, USA   (12.06.07)
Questions : 1. How comes that all those who were so critical of US inteligence trust so much those agencies that they did not trust yesterday? Would they trust this last report if the conclusion would have been the opposite, that Iran is going to explode a nuclear bomb tomorrow? 2. Iran may have so much rich Uranium that they could build a bomb in a short notice? 3. Why do the 16 intel agencies tell us now? who is going to benefit from this announcement? Will it hurt Bush? Does it take the wind out of Democrats sails? 4. Why did Ahmadinejad use nuclear weapons production to threaten Israel, EU if he does not have them? 5. Why did Ahmadinejad allow his country to be punished if he could have avoided it by IAEA inspection? Saddam kind of behavior? 6. Israel had never intention to attack Iran. They played Ahmadinejad's poker too suggesting that Israel could attack Iran's nuclear factories. 7. Did USA change course to advance commercial penetration, create dependence and control somethings that Russia and China are doing? 8. Iranians have been able to conceal their activity knowing how USA, EU, IAEA gather intelligence? 9. USA, Bush, understand that war on Iran is not possible presently, not militarily, not economically, no public support, lame duck, no international support (short of France, UK).Is this intelligence opinion is a kind of way out. Still the sanctions will continue, because they proved effective. 10. Is it possible that Bush/Israel are wrong? We will have the answers in a few years, unfortunately.
12. New York Times has it's doubts about Iran
I. Barr ,   USA   (12.06.07)
Editorial New York Times Good and Bad News About Iran Published: December 5, 2007 There is a lot of good news in the latest intelligence assessment about Iran. Tehran, we are now told, halted its secret nuclear weapons program in 2003, which means that President Bush has absolutely no excuse for going to war against Iran. We are also relieved that the intelligence community is now willing to question its own assumptions and challenge the White House’s fevered rhetoric. The president and his aides are apparently too worried about getting caught again shaving intelligence to stop that. "The focus should be on limiting Iran to its current uranium centrifuge capability and putting in place extensive IAEA safeguards.... " Daryl Kimball, Arms Control Association, Washington, D.C. But there’s also a lot of worrisome news in there that must not be overlooked. First, the report says “with high confidence” that Iran did have a secret nuclear weapons program and that it stopped only after it got caught and was threatened with international punishment. Even now, Tehran’s scientists are working to master the skills to make nuclear fuel — the hardest part of building a weapon. Anyone who wants to give the Iranians the full benefit of the doubt should read the last four years of reports from United Nations’ nuclear inspectors about Iran’s 18-year history of hiding and dissembling. Or last month’s report, which criticized Tehran for providing “diminishing” information and access to its current program. In one of those ironies that would be delicious if it didn’t involve nuclear weapons, an official close to the inspection agency told The Times yesterday that the new American assessment might be too generous to Iran. Unfortunately, this report — preceded by months of White House saber rattling — is going to make it harder to keep up the international pressure on Iran to curtail its fuel program and cooperate fully with inspectors, the only way to ensure that it doesn’t get back into the secret weapons business. After Iraq and Guantánamo and Abu Ghraib, it is hard to imagine that this administration could do any more damage to this country’s credibility. Then it does. Less than two months ago, Mr. Bush was warning that Iran’s nuclear ambitions could unleash World War III. Yesterday, the president insisted that he found out about the new assessment only last week. He also said that his top intelligence adviser told him in August that analysts were looking at “new information.” We know that the president is an incurious man, but given all his fears about Iran, and those missing weapons in Iraq, it’s hard to fathom why he wouldn’t have asked for a preview. The new report is not an argument for anyone to let down their guard when it comes to Iran’s nuclear ambitions. What it does say is that some combination of intensified pressures and opportunities might — “if perceived by Iran’s leaders as credible” — prompt Tehran to “extend the current halt to its nuclear weapons program.” Yesterday, Mr. Bush insisted that he believes in a carrot-and-stick approach. But he has yet to make a serious offer of comprehensive talks and real rewards if Iran is willing to give up its fuel program and cooperate fully with inspectors. He is going to have to send someone a lot higher ranking than the American ambassador in Baghdad to deliver the message. We suggest Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice for the job. We don’t know if the Iranians will find any offer credible, or if they even want to. It is the least Mr. Bush can do to try to salvage his credibility with the American people and America’s allies.
13. All the More reason to look @Syria
Andrea ,   Phx, USA   (12.06.07)
The US was never going to attack Iran. It was a show. A bluff. Every play poker? We are poker players, the Persians are Chess players. Israel you must defend yourselves. God is your defender. I will always pray for the Peace of Jerusalem. Shalom! and Happy Hanukkah.
14. Mr Bergman is missing the point
Frank ,   Canada   (12.06.07)
The real point is not to know when Iran will have the bomb but if the risk of a nuclear Iran can be tolerated. Stopping the nuclear program now or later is not the main issue. The main issue is that this program must be stopped at all cost. This false debate regarding the when is only a deception.
15. Maansingh $8
Brod ,   USA   (12.06.07)
You don't wait for the fanatical Ayatollahists to shower Israel with a Mushroom Cloud. That would be too late. And you cannot depend on the world community. They stood idly by as Papist Nazis led by Hitler and his counterpart- Islamist-Jihadists led by Al Husseini slaughtered 6 million Jews in the Holocaust in WWII. Remember History. Never repeat the mistake of the past. Those who threaten to annihilate Israel should bear responsibility for the consequences of their threats.
16. 10. Paul: Good points. Thank you.
Rivkah   (12.06.07)
17. 2 Terry: Perhaps the Bible will comfort you since you
Rivkah   (12.06.07)
need 100% assurance. Nuclear neutron bomb weapons will be used in NORTHERN ISRAEL it appears from Ezekiel chapter 38 in the Authorized King James Bible. The invading armies of Magog (Russia) and a coalition of Moslem nations are mostly destroyed in Northern Israel by an earthquake and a plague that melts the eyes. The equipment is not contaminated like with a usual nuclear bomb or dirty nuke since it is used for fuel for seven years. The bodies, however, have to be collected by specialists over seven months. It appears the bodies do not decay which would be typical of a neutron bomb attack. The equipment is not destroyed but is used for fuel which would indicated a neutron bomb attack which does not destroy buildings and equipment, but kills living beings in an area. OR, it could be a weapon from God that melts the eyes but not the bodies or equipment. The slaughter of two-thirds of Israel described in Zechariah may be in wars since Isaiah chapters 4 and 5 indicate the young men are killed in battle and the women are ravished and their gates mourn. The gates of a woman are the labia majora. The gates mourn for the men who died who comforted the women with their love. The gates also mourn because of the rapes. The women's heads are bald. That indicates some small scale nuclear weapons used against Israel that does not kill the women but leaves them bald from the radiation. But take heart, A THIRD of Israel will survive to see the Messiah deliver them and end Gentile world rule.
18. #3 and again inaccurate
Danny   (12.06.07)
Pakistan didn't "fool the world", the [Western] world deliberately looked the other way as part-payment for using Pakistan as a conduit for arms to the mujahideen. "Iran is not seeking local hegemony?" - are you on crack? Western interference for **hundreds** of years? Try less than 30 between 1941 and 1979. Also for your information without short-sighted Israeli "inference" of selling arms to Iran, there would be no Islamic Republic of Iran.
19. Iran
Dr Weaver ,   Cocoa, USA   (12.15.07)
Duck, because our NIE is way off course and will end up hitting you. Everyone I know thinks you have been set up by our "leaders". Go after Iran's nuclear plants with big American flags on the wings of your jets. We have a saying, "pay back is a bit$#". Sorry Israel. for our selfish interests. There are more like me, than like those in power, 'right now'.
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