Nothing wrong with Hezbollah as long as they attack Israel or any other non-Muslims. Then, they're heros. Of course, there's the Sunni/Shi'ite thing, somewhat of a problem, but they can kill each other as long as they cooperate in killing Jews, sort of like Iranian support for Hamas. Nonetheless, the argument is a bit disingenuous - you can't get around the fact that Hezbollah won. Hezbollah will lose popularity with other groups? So what? What will they do about it? The answer is obviously not much. Aside from some sympathy, no one will help Siniora's gov't. fight Hezbollah. Not even his own army. So does Arab fear of Iranian influence help us? Not much. The Arabs will not suddenly embrace us as allies nor will they change their anti-Israel policies. This is wishful thinking. They will continue to squabble among themselves but will always unite against the one common denominator, the only real thing they have in common, the foundation stone of Arab unity, which is hatred of us. The one thing you can always be sure of - the "New Middle-East" is basically the same as the "Old Middle-East."

Why doesn't YNET elevate Terry to columnist? Although I do not always agree with him, on balance he makes more sense than most of the columnists on this site.

My god what happened? The druze the best fighters of the last leb civil war and yet they weren't even a speed bump. May 11th, is when the PSP met HZB second string rejects and Druze collapsed like a deck of cards. Within a few hours,they laid down their weapons after key villages had fallen like dominoes and Jumblatt was on TV pleading for the life of his people. These guys had heavy mortars, 50mm AA, a small well motivated army and in a few hours they folded. Holy shiate, what are they feeding the HZB boys, their second tier troops did this, their front liners weren't deemed necessary. I don't need god to tell me the future it's so obvious, the christians will play nice and get along, the Druze will rally around Hizb's man from the hills, Arslan, and behave themselves as a model minority, the sunni will go jihadi and find themselves just like in iraq; an endangered species. The best thing Israel can do? Cut a prisoner swap, let the little child killer go, give up the stupid hectares up north and cut a side deal with iran. The sunni aren't smart enough or organized enough to be of any use; the iranians are smart and ruthless. They aren't arab, and for the right price will drop the palestinian cause. They won't sell out their shia brethren , but the rest are just pieces on the board. What do the iranians want? iraq? bahrain? kuwait? the shia chunck of saudi? azerbaijan? These are all expendable. What does Israel want in return, all of the land of Current Israel and a relocation package for the palestinians elsewhere; the iranians can deliver this; they scare the heck out of jordan's king, they can convince him of the humanitarian need to accept palestinian "immigrants". The road to true piece is thru tehran, but it's a peaceful path. The alternative? To be used and expended by the arabs as a security guard.

Terry, you should start a blog. This way more people will read what you write and find your opinions on the search engines and word-of-mouth, which currently you can't do on the Ynet platform. Search for littlegreenfootballs and you'll see what I mean. In addition, you can keep posting here on Ynet, making sure to link to your blog in each of your comments.

I liked your analysis. I just don't think Israel needs to release Samir Kuntar or abandon Har Dov. Israel should just hold on a bit longer until your scenario becomes true.

I realize suddenly the politicians are all about the 1 held by Hamas what about the 2 held by Hizbulah Syria RIGHT ??? I doubt they are alive but Israel makes no effort to find them the dirty politicians who run this all are alike RIGHT ??? like sharks they are dangerous that is all they care about being as like sharks never nice never doing the right thing RIGHT ??? and I mean NEVER RIGHT ??? thank you... M. S.

The Lebanese state cannot live side by side with a Hizbullah state. This theorem is becoming more evident by the day, as the party's actions in the past three years have been, by definition, directed against the state, the government, the army and the security forces, institutions of national representation, the economy, and more fundamentally the rules of the Lebanese communal game. The turmoil will continue, and at this point has already taken on a regional coloring. The masks have fallen. And if Hizbullah does decide to reject Lebanon, then we shouldn't be surprised if some start speaking of an amicable divorce between Shiites and the rest of Lebanon.

It's surprising how often the Israeli journalists get unduly excited when they hear the critisicm of Arab extremism by the Arabs. It's very unwise , no matter how much they dislike each other there's one thing that'll always unite the entire Muslim and Arab world - hatred towards Israel. It's not an extremist point of view in the Aran world, just look at BBC commentator on ME affairs - he said on the record - if Israel is nuked I';ll go dancing in the Trafalgar Square, while another said - I'm ready to go to Israel as a suicide bomber. It amazes me how naive and blinded the Israelis often are - they try to appease their unappeasable enemies and try to look nice to them( remember Barak was trying to sort of hug Syrian FM - FM jumped back as if he saw a cobra), and on the other hand Israel doesn;t give much damn about their allies - remember SLA. Arab states are not happy with Iran? What do we care? You think if Israel bombs Iran to kingdom come, Arabs will applaud you?

The Lebanese who hated Nasrallah before still hate him and those who supported him still support him. The 'coup' changed nothing in that regard. What it might change is the intensity with which March 14 despises Hezbollah -- but even there, Hezbollah seems to have calculated well. No matter how much March 14 despises Hezbollah they'll be unable for at least two years to build a fighting force to compete against them, and that's if Hezbollah doesn't intervene in the meantime to knock out their burgeoning forces.

since I've started to read Ynet. Of course the obvious answer would be that Terry is a right winger and Ynet has assumed the left wing slant of Israeli news.

Wow, I have read the most insightful and serious posts in response to this article since I have been visiting this site. To begin with I'd like to ignore what a Saudi "journalist" has written in a rag owned by a Saudi "prince" and printed in London, not even in the ME. One fact is clear, neither Iran nor Israel have the means to defeat each other militarily. Iran has already indicated it is ready to cooperate with the international community to allay fears about its nuclear development efforts. But, Israel, instead of jumping at the opportunity by saying "show me", has taken upon itself in a bizarre manner to provide NATO and others "information" to discredit the NIE. This is quite dangerous for Israel because it proves Israel will do anything to start another war, this time with Iran, even at the cost of alienating the US intel community- I'm afraid that damage has been done judging the steady trickle of Americans who spy for Isael! Israelis should realize their best friends in the Islamic world would be the Shiehs. All Sunni dominated Muslim countries have "cleansed" their societies from their indigenous Jewish population except Iran, which is Shieh dominated. The Shieh, who created Hezbollah, used to have quite amicable relationships with Israel before the foolish military attack and occupation of Lebanon by Ariel Sharon - an occupation which ended in defeat and humiliation for Israel and thousands of casualties on both sides. It seems to me that instead of trying to find "allies" in the Wahabbis and discredited Arab despots in Egypt and powerless "boy king" of Jordan, Israel must seriously start working with Iran through innumerable channels at its disposal, including Iranians Jews who travel to Israel to visit their family members! As for the separation of Shieh from the rest of Lebanon, I think it's a great idea only if Israel comes to its senses and figure out a way to REVIVE its relations with the Shieh in South Lebanon - heck Israel had no problem finding allies in the fascist Phalanges of Gamayel gang, why not Hezbollah? This way Iran will be off Israel's back and Israel has effectively neutralized the biggest and most effective adversaries it has had since its "birthday". I am confident if Israel "solves" its problems with the Shieh in South Lebanon, Iran will not have any problems to reduce its support for Hamas and other Sunni groups. Israel has ALWAYS know the way to its security is through Tehran. I bet Sharon would say the same thing if he were not in a coma. I can't understand why the entire Israeli political establishment seems to be in a coma when it comes to Iran?!!!

How naive do you think we are Persian cat? Dealing with Iran shia is dealing with apocalyptic mullahs. There is no dealing with them whatsoever. They have no hesitation sacrificing half theyre population whom they view as cannon fodder in their schemes. They will just be declared martyrs as the children in the past sent to clear mine fields with plastic keys tied around their necks for their so called heaven. The Persian people are another matter altogether. We have gotten along well with them in the past before the ayatollahs came in. We could do business with the Persians no doubt there but never when they are controlled by these apocalyptic black robes who have taken Iran back 1000 years. We know the people strive and desire freedom with an element of democracy. The Persians have no problem with Israel its theyre leaders that make the problem. The persians dont see themselves as arabs and nor do most of them see themselves as shias, most want to be rid of their Islam that has brought them nothing but backwardness. They see Islam as an arab import and want nothing do with it. Dont forget they were conquered by Islam. I recognise the Persians are the best and most intelligent of non Israelis in the middle east. But until they throw off their controllers there is nothing to talk with them about. In fact the Persians face existential threat by not overthrowing the mullahs and revolutionary guard as they seek to bring their people to an apocalyptic future with the heralding of the12th imam. #4, you write a good post but you havent taken into the account what I have written above. Ahmedinijad and the mullahs will sooner see the whole planet burn before dealing with Israel whom they seek to wipe off the map. PS. Terry always has great comments, but they would get lost in a blog. The public at large dont seek out blogs to read they just get there by accident. Comments in recognized world media is still the best way to offset many of their lies and disinformation. Keep responding Terry as shall I even if I have no love for ynet's agenda.

#6 I'd like to believe the druze won sa well; unfortunately I don't smoke crack, so I have to face the facts as they exist not as I'd like them to be. #7 I think samir kuntar should be on the negotiating table, but that he should have a little accident before he goes free. As far as the hectares up north, I've seen them; I'd rather have a jewish Judea and Samaria with the palestinians leaving peacefully in their own country; jordan. Ask yourself who wants the least from Israel and you'll realize who the real partners for peace are.

I've always liked reading Terry's posts - his are usually quite eloquent and often more perceptive than the columnists. I don't always agree with Terry but I always appreciate his viewpoint.

they need an army. How else do you expect them to march into Kfar Saba Ranana and Tel Aviv, with teddy bears? And how else can they shoot down every El Al plane leaving and landing at Ben Gurion? Deport them all is what I say, these cretins of beings.

good relations between our two countries is possible right now. The Iranian political establishment seems to be producing Ahmadinejads for the moment, and the Mullah's Council is getting even more stagnated and single-minded by the day - meaning AJ isn't going to be the worst, and that I'd genuinely fear the day the current Supreme Leader dies, if I were you. The next one isn't likely to be as "nice" as the current one, seeing the potential crop of the Council. As for Hezb... Cooperating with a group like the Phalanges was a logical option during the chaos of the Lebanese Civil War, but in times of peace? Hezb separating would automatically start the new civil war in full strength, by the way - they'll have to occupy several Druze and Christian enclaves to create territorial continuity, and that will mean an eventual major flashpoint - the Druze being the most dangerous is bothered, and the budding Sunni fanatical groups (gaining support as Hariri Jr. loses prestige) being a dangerous second. Israel meddling there again would just mean more chaos, more war, more Israelis dying. We don't need that, not unless it flows over the border and starts hurting us - like last time. But Iran... Listen, man, I want Israel and Iran to restore their ties. We're natural allies with a shared history far older than anything in the region today. But talking about Cyrus the Great and the ancient Persian Empire won't get us far with the Islamic Republic - they're trying to erase that part of your history, anything that's pre-Islam. And whenever AJ opens his mouth, people here in Israel get frighted and angry. How could we try to court a nation whose president openly discusses "regime change" here which would involve forcibly expelling most of Israel's Jewish populace? Or worse? We could have gotten somewhere with Khatami, I think... but he was focused on internal affairs (pretty much how your presidency *should* work, if I understand it), and your Supreme Leader isn't changing the general foreign policy of Israel being the Little Satan. Time will tell if matters will improve.

I've never heard of it.

Oh yeah, Wtf and Persian CAT have some very valid points. But for how long can Israel trust Iran (or to be exact the current leadership)? It's up for a change very soon of which Israel is keenly aware as you both mentioned there are numerous contacts. With all the drawbacks so far the arabs provide a nice buffer zone as well.

To Yisraeli, thanks for the lecture, but what is your solution? You say, no dealing whatsoever. Is that it? Do you want war? Listen, the Zionist jihadis who run Israel are not necessarily a basket of peaches either. We have to deal with what we have. The mollhas have been in power for almost 30 years and it should be obvious the most casual observer they are not suicidal. The fact khomeini used young volunteers to blunt the Iraqi attacks was normal because Iran was alone while the all Arab countries except Syria and Algeria, the USSR, the US, and Europeans were supporting Saddam financially and militarily. I hope next time you use this as a lame excuse to badmouth Iran you think about what really happened. Roman, the Shieh in South Lebanon are self-sufficient and have enough military muscle to defend themselves against the Sunnis who persecuted them any chance the got. The Christians in the South have no problem with the Israelis either - the SLA was the henchmen and enforcers during the Zionist occupation of South Lebanon. The Druze won't bother anyone. If Israel, the Shieh and the Christians in the South find a way to work together, the Druze will jump on the band wagon in a heartbeat. I know how people in Israel fee when Ahmadinejad opens his mouth says those things. But the Zionist regime, which he wants to eradicate not the country of Israel, has been using the military threat against Iran even before Ahamdinejdad came on the scene. The threats started during Khatami by none other than Ariel Sharon. It was the Zionists and their allies in the US who brought up the "regime change" issue when no one had ever heard of Ahmadinejad. But you are right, the president of Iran does not set the macro foreign policy, he is not even the commander-in-chief. Iran sent a proposal in 2003 to the US in which it even mentioned ways to normalize relations with Israel. For some reason that proposal was totally ignored by both Israel and the US. I am arguing the same people who sent that proposal are in place. But the ball is in Israel and the US courts this time. Once Olmert and GW are gone, and Obama becomes the president things can change, except if Natanyahu becomes the PM. In that case all bets are off.

falling asleep with your long comments; please keep it short & interesting. So if this or that, did or could happen it does not matter. The situation in the ME changes from day to day. capis