Opinion
What Assad really wants
Guy Bechor
Published: 20.11.08, 18:57
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26 Talkbacks for this article
1. a voice of reason at last
jeremy ,   jerusalem   (11.20.08)
And more surpirsing the signals coming from our military - withdraw, retreat, lull, truce, patience is strength. Mr Orwell, we need your talent to write a new book on that with which 1984 will pale in comparison.
2. Left-wing Israeli lunatics would give him what he wants.
Bennie ,   Jerusalem   (11.20.08)
Left-wingers just won't learn the lessons of giving up Gaza and southern Lebanon. Why don't the left-wingers just pack up and go back to Poland or wherever.? Let the rest of us who love Israel fight to keep her.
3. assad's 'peace' strategy for
elliot ,   usa   (11.20.08)
renewed war agaist israel is a must read for the 'peace camp'--if any of them who actually care
4. i'm still trying to figure out...
nate ,   Canada   (11.20.08)
why basically everyone can see Assad's true intentions except, seemingly, the government of Israel? I hope the assessment of the Military Intelligence is just some kind of mind game on the Syrians and not their actual position. Why is Israel constantly in these states of negotiations whereby they give, give and give and receive only kind words and promises of this and that sort? (which really don't amount to a single damned thing).
5. golan
alexi   (11.20.08)
Facts. Barak was wrong to withdraw running scared from lebanon as a buffer was always held by dayan and negotiations had to be held. Olmert was wrong about wholesale departure from philadelphia route. Israel cannot afford to leave the golan. It never was historic syria anyways. Forget about it. Olmert will sign documents on his behalf leaving golan, west bank and jerusalem as he is going to screw israel from dumping him from the PM office. Likud will tear up and spit at his documents, though they will cause diplomatic trouble for israel with obama. Nonetheless, the new AG must indict olmert because mazzuz is weak and won't do it and ehud needs to be in jail for some time to learn some humilitiy.
6. I think this is a correct analysis.
Terry ,   Eilat, Israel   (11.20.08)
Ceding the Golan would be a strategic blunder & expose us to grave risks. That's why the morons on the suicidal Left like the idea.
7. Finally somebody said it!!!
Joe ,   Ramat Gan   (11.20.08)
Thank you, Guy Bechor, for an excellent analysis! What you forgot to mention, though, is that Assad is not Syria and that when regime change comes (by Syrian hands or otherwise) any peace agreement signed by an Assad will be null and void. What we have with Syria now is better than peace. Hopefully the next leader of our country will realize this.
8. SAY NO
A.C.Guard ,   USA   (11.20.08)
Any Israeli leader who gives Assad what he wants should be arrested as a traitor. What Assad wants is for Israel to be an easy target and eventually it's Jews pushed to the sea.
9. what assad really wants
boris ,   nyc, usa   (11.21.08)
and the rest of arab regimes is clear - to destroy israel and analysis is right, but options would never work. meanwhile author do not see one option from his article - there is peace on golans BECAUSE THERE ARE NO ARABS., so there is only one option for peace, right, to remove arabs from israeli land an d face states like egypt, jordan, syria even lebanon.
10. Assad and the Golan
C cannon ,   Sacramento USA   (11.21.08)
Under no circumstances should Israel ever give up the Golan. This indeed would be a fatal mistake as the Syrians could shell areas well into Israel from this vantage point. Whatever you do please do not listen to Obama, he in no way can ever be trusted! He will bring you nothing but trouble!
11. JUST SAY, "NO!"
ALAN ,   USA   (11.21.08)
12. Israel should never abandon the Golan Highs.
Robert Bernier ,   Tel Aviv   (11.21.08)
Syria is collaborating with the enemies of Israel – so first of all lets keep the Golan ! For Israel, it is of paramount importance not to give away the Golan Highs. There will be nothing preventing Syria from violating any agreement reached once Israel gives up its strategic advantage on the Golan Heights.
13. Assad, Golan
George ,   NZ   (11.21.08)
What kind of military thinker would ever contemplate giving up the high ground? The idea borders on treachery.
14. No Golan Hights to Syria !
(11.21.08)
15. The Golan Hights have been in the
(11.21.08)
hands of the Syrians for a few years as given land by the Anglo-French. But they sistematically squandered this land by launching immoral, irresponsible and deadly attacks from it against young Israel and its innocent civilian population. Finally, one day arrived when Israel took no more aggravation and chased away the murderous Syrian troops - forever ! And that concludes any discussion of giving away even an inch of this so strategic and by now, so Israeli piece of paradise. But I totally agree with the concept of peace for peace. The question is whether the corrupt Syrian politicians comprehend the fundamental philosophy and depth of such a concept. I doubt that !
16. Another excuse for theft
Mikesailor ,   Miami, FL   (11.21.08)
Assad wants the Golan because it is Syrian property. Period. Some Israelis wish to return the Golan for two reasons: 1) A peace deal with Syria is impossible as lond as Israel continues control over Syrian territory and 2) Israelis with half a brain want a pipeline with Turkey to provide oil and especially water. If you would look at a map, which I know some are too ignorant to find one, you will see that any viable pipeline will have to traverse Syrian territory. Since the Israelis have basically destroyed their own aquifers, sooner or later, they will have to deal with the Syrians.
17. What Assad wants and what he will get are quite different.
Rivkah   (11.22.08)
Assad WANTS the destruction of Israel, not just the Golan Heights. What he will GET is the destruction of Damascus and Tyre and Zidon, according to the Bible. Assad should look up Damascus in Young's Concordance or Strong's Concordance which are keyed to the Authorized King James Bible. He should also look up Persia (Iran) and Tyre and Zidon and Edom (Jordan) and Egypt and Togormah (Turkey) and Babylon (Iraq). When he gets some idea of the consequences of persecuting the Jews and Israel as written by the Prophets thousands of years ago, he should get a program from www.dokonet.com called "Unlocking the Bible Codes". He should look up his name and read the surface text which will be an indication of his fate. The ELS codes about him will also be a clue for his future. He would be well advised to back off on the Golan and destroy the WMD's that were transported from Iraq into Syria and Lebanon just before the multi-national invasion of Iraq. Assad needs to get on the favor side of God or his country will be destroyed.
18. Yes! Mr. Bechor gets it!
Vered, Israel   (11.23.08)
And besides, we won the Golan in a defensive war, and we get to keep it legally.
19. Waste of Time
Walid ,   Riyadh, KSA   (11.23.08)
All these analyses reflect one thing i.e. Israelis are running away from any confrontation. Look what happened in Iran's case, analysts wasted precious time deliberating about the possibilty of Iran getting the Bomb, then the pros and cons of such an act, etc.... Now, Iran is on the verge of detonating the 1st A Bomb. The same track is followed with Syria, tons and tons of meaningless analyses about Assad and whether he's interetsed in peace. One day you'll wake up with another Atomic neighbour. Then, the rules of the game are forever changed with a new balance of power that will de facto erode whatever remains of Israeli deterrence.
20. #19
(11.23.08)
no, sir, your analysis is wrong. israel under netanyahu will give iran and syria the finger, not much american pressure will affect netanyahu. he's a bibi. and you can believe when i tell you that he's one nasty leader that cares about israel and will do everything militarily to get what needs to be done. i am more concerned for you, the arab countries of uae, s.a., the gulf rich states, egypt, lebanon, jordan. iran is on its way to conquer you, not israel. iran is interested in your valuables, not in israel. iran is just using propaganda against israel to show you arabs how committed she is for your future and protection. however, behind your backs, she is planning slowly to bring a shia hegemony over you and conquer you, not israel. yuou arab countrie are iran's primary target, not israel. israel is just used for propaganda and so are the palestinians. iran, by paropaganding against israel and for the palestinians in the arab world wants to trick you into believing she is on your side. but this is where your compacency and safety will be violated... by iran. once you arabs give her the power to decide and to "Protect you", this is when iran will finish you off. look at lebanon to get a taste of what is coming to your gulf states. why do you think s.a. is so afraid? why do you think that secretly s.a. talked with israel on the hush hush to join forces against iran. s.a. wants israel to do the dirty job for her and to secure the kings and pronces future and the other arab countries also may rely on israel to secure their regimes in case of iranian hegemony. your analysis is bogus. we israelis have such brains that we know what is going on while you sleep at the helm and pray for the destruction of our country not knowing you are next on the agenda.
21. #16 Next step is already planned
Raphael ,   Netanya   (11.23.08)
Golan was given 1923 by the british mandate to the french mandate, in a swap against half a dozen villages in the Galilee triangle. So Hezbollah now asks for the restitution of these villages to Lebanon, while Assad wants Golan back. Colonial borders are politically correct when they advantage Arabs, and a nuisance when not. Mikesailors cattlethief culture tends to become international law thanks to Carter/Obama rule.
22. wrong
Mora ,   Deutschland   (11.23.08)
floowing the 1973 war, Syria had regained control of parts of its occupied territory (Qunaitera and other demilitirized zone region), yet, the area still remain to this very day scarcely populated to say the best.
23. # 20
Walid ,   Riyadh   (11.23.08)
For everyone's sake I hope you're just right. But, Netanyahu was PM when a series of botched security & military operations occured; do you remember the failed mission of Commando Yami (Sheitet 13) in Anasarieh where the whole unit was obliterated by Hizb and the ensuing humiliating exchange of body parts vs. live terrorists, which established the norm for following exchanges . And, the failed assasination of Meshaal in Jordan, and the crash in Northern Israel, and , and ,and.......... I believe the flaw is in the Israeli society and establishment where they shun from confronting their enemies because they don't want to the price.
24. Amen Guy Bechor!!!
Rosie ,   U.S   (11.23.08)
However, what Assad really wants is completely being self-imposed forgotten by the defense establishment of Israel as seen in their paper: "Golan for Syria peace, plan for Iran strike." They know and I know thus far Syria can not be trusted at all having done nothing to sever ties with terror. Anyway, the idea of land for peace is not only dangerous & has been completely proven false but unadulterated insanity.
25. With Obama in the US & the left dominant in Israel
zionist forever   (11.24.08)
Assad will get all that and alot more. He will get exactly the same toys as Israel free of charge so we loose the strategic high ground and the Syrian military are going to be driving Abrams tanks and flying F16's All he needs to do is say the P word and say he will break ties with Iran which doens't benefit Israel or the US anyway because Iran are the puppet masters not the other way around. So Assad abandons his masters so what Iran might loose out on the propoganda front but other than that it won't affect them in the slightest. Assad though no longer needs Irans protection because it can make war with Israel all by himself. Gaza of the north for terrorists to operate out of while Assad has plausable deniability so he can stay the good guy whilst he encourages terror. Israel already short of water will now find itself sharing its main water source as well as the aquifers in Judea & Samaria will either go to or be shared with the palestinians. Assad in his desire to build Syrian settlements will probably drive out the Druze who will come looking to Israel for citizenship, new homes and jobs. Assad in his attempt to further destabilise things now he has his foot in the Galilee can through his terrorist army enoucrage the arab triangle to rise up and demand that the arab majority Galilee is given to Syria because arabs feel unhappy in Israel. Assad wants more than just the Golan he wants a return to the Greater Syria which existed before the British & French started dividing up the region... it will make him an arab hero The Golan is nothing more than stage one but the peace camp dont look beyond their own hand and the politicians like Olmert and Livni beyond the garunteed Nobel Prize they will get for selling out the country. Obamas solution to the Iranian nuclear crisis will be a deal with Ahmadinijad where the US will force Israel to give up its own nuclear program if Iran suspends uranium enrichment. So we loose our nuclear deterent. Syria gets the hight ground and American weapons. Signing a peace deal with Syria is the same as signing a suicide note.
26. 4
zionist forever   (11.24.08)
The reason the government of Israel can't see the truth is either because they don't want to see the truth because there are Nobel Prizes being dangled in front of their eyes and their egos. The outside world will be calling them brave, visionries, willing to make painfull concesions in the name of peace all the usual bullshit. The other camp is the oslo generation, even the centre right whose careers started in the oslo years are all in favor of creating a palestinian state and making peace with Syria even if its a peace deal we don't need. They have been brainwashed into believing there is no substitute for a peace treaty. With Syria we get a much better deal without a formal treaty than we get if we do a deal. Chamberlin agreed on land for peace with Hitler and look where that got us and Egypt reguarly breaks the terms of the treaty it signed in 1979. the difference is the right wing are more interested in the security involved in the treaty they want whilst the left just dont give a dam about anything except their precious treaty. The military itself is totaly screwed up. As there have been no major wars on the scale of 1967, 1973 or Lebanon 1 the IDF has been turned into nothing more than a glorified anti terror force, who cares about the Syrian army they are no threat all we have to worry about it Hezbullah & Hamas. There are no officers left who have fought in major wars. The closest thing we have had to a war since the first Lebanon war is Lebanon 2006 and even that could barley be called a war the way it was ran. Israel doesn't take part in NATO operations so there is no oportunity for officers to develop battlefield skills and these people eventualy become the top men in the IDF and they have no experience except at fighting terror. Half the senior officers are already planning for their political careers and the IDF itself has become a political institution an extension of government. The IDF needs somebody to bring it up to scratch especialy because the arabs have learned alot more about military tactics than they had and the strengh of some states is almost on the same scale as Israels and in some cases they are better than Israel. Egypt has a huge navy compared to Israels which just gets whats left in the small change after the air and ground forces get the majority of the budget. The Saudis fly the Eurofighter Typhoon which is superior to the F16. While Israel is planning to kill the merkava Egypt is building the US Abrams under licence & they fly F16's there is virtualy no balance of power in Israels favour and any peace treaty will see the Syrian military resembling the Egyptian one and the IDF.
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