Opinion
The beginning of the end?
Soli Shahvar
Published: 14.06.09, 10:46
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18 Talkbacks for this article
1. Over Ambitious but Possible!
Jewish Refugee   (06.14.09)
That it is time to end the suppression of Iranian People. It is time to end the sponsoring of terrorism. It is time for reconciliation. For more please visit: For more please check at: http://israelactnow.blogspot.com
2. Nothing will happen...
Aaron ,   LA, USA (Formerly SF   (06.14.09)
....except Ahmanedijad's continuing horrible rule in which Iran's economic life is scarce and he believes having a strong, bold nuclear armed military is more important than good relations with the world - which would indeed be better for his people in the end.
3. Dream On
David   (06.14.09)
Did anyone really expect a fair election. You live in a dream world if you did. There won't be any regime change, and the Iranian Republican Guard will crush anyone who tries.
4. GO Iranian Intifadeh, GO!
The Doc ,   Haifa, Israel   (06.14.09)
5. to #4 you right.
ghostq   (06.14.09)
6. Wishful thinking !
trumpeldor ,   eurabyiah   (06.14.09)
Teheran cranes will care of the opponents necks ....
7. Having the Bomb is more important than bread
Nora ,   Tel Aviv   (06.14.09)
Remember North Korea.
8. Wishful thinking ....
Terry ,   Eilat, Israel   (06.14.09)
This was not an election, it was a putsch. This was a power struggle within an extremist movement not in any way between moderates & extremists. In this case, all you can say is that the extreme extremists seized power, crushing their opponants. This is what happened in Germany in the 1930's - read about the ''night of the long knives'' when Hitler eliminated the S.A. to consolidate his power. This is the historical analogy to look at. The real ruler of Iran is the Supreme Leader, an unelected dictator & his clerical cronies. This power grab means that the Supreme Leader no longer even feels the need to keep up appearances, he'll do what he damn feels like without constraints. Any opposition will be ruthlessly crushed - these people don't care how many people they kill - which, pretty much, is what the Iranian Revolution did when they over-threw the Shah. Estimates are that up to 20,000 were killed. Many fled into exile, others were imprisoned & tortured. The Shah fell because he was abandoned by Jimmy Carter & because the Army would not fire on the civilian crowds. This is not the case today. Obama has zero influence on Iran - in effect, this current mess is a slap in the face to Obama's appeasement policies & the Revolutionary Guards WILL fire on the people. Iran's ambitions have been encouraged by appeasement & they have seen the feeble reaction to N. Korea's nuclear tests. The Neville Chamberlain clones of the West are seen as impotent wimps.
9. Nothing
Ruth ,   NYC   (06.14.09)
Bomb is more important. Almost all Iranians in US support the president and proud of the bomb. Look, in Israel gov'ts change but supreme leader is Peres (or Beilin?). Vote mean nothing in most countries, Iran or Israel.
10. Which fantasy land is the author living in?
Jeffrey ,   Boston   (06.14.09)
11. Ruthlessness will prevail
Brent ,   Lawrence, KS   (06.14.09)
I would like to share the hopefulness of those who believe this will result in a new Iranian Revolution that will overthrow the mullah's "theocracy". But, I cannot. The Shah fell because he was not ruthless enough. As noted, his own military would not fire on the civilians. Note some counter examples. Burma. When the monks led protests against that totalitarian regime, the world thought that the government would surely not attack the monks. But, the Burmese government not only attacked the monks but destroyed them. The result. No overthrow. Does anyone remember a place called Tianamen Square? That "revolt" fizzled because the Chinese military was perfectly willing to drive tanks and armored personnel carriers over the bodies of protesters. I have said to many that the only reason Ghandi succeeded in India was because he led his protests in a country governed by people who have respect for life and who believed in restraint on the part of government. Had Ghandi tried his tricks in the old USSR he would have been on his way to Siberia or to a torture prison and the world would never hear from him again. No, this "revolt" will be crushed with utter ruthlessness. For change to occur the Iranian people will need a counter weight to the military might and ruthlessness of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard. Although I detest him, Mao was right. Power does grow out of the barrel of a gun.
12. THE WAR PRECIDENT - HEZEKIEL CHAP. 38-39. !!!..
ORAO STRANKA. ,   TSARIGRAD U SRBIA.   (06.14.09)
Orao.
13. who says its fraud?
dan   (06.14.09)
there are a lots of uneducated country folk who supported ahmadinajad. moussavi had more support among the more educated youth in tehran, where he did win a majority. but these are a minority of the country. the fact is however that the mullahs picked these 4 candidates, it would not matter who 'won', and that this is an excellent example of how an 'election' does not equal a 'democracy'.
14. This Guy is Dreaming....
Dovy ,   Toronto   (06.14.09)
They spend all their time thinking that a few college students in Tehran are going to change the results of an election. Did anyone even see a report from Isfahan, Shiraz or Meshad? Never, because the western media is so stupid and lazy that they think that any 20 year old kid in Tehran speaks for the whole country. And this guy is no better......
15. Re: Wishful thinking - interesting
Daweed ,   Sa'aana   (06.14.09)
"The Shah fell because he was abandoned by Jimmy Carter & because the Army would not fire on the civilian crowds. " Very true....and my concern is this is the path Obama is setting up for Israel. The USA abandons it allies. Iran, Philippines, throughout Central America, etc.
16. Iran
J.K. ,   Brookllyn USA   (06.14.09)
Soli ! you are wrong,unlike the shah of Iran,Khaminey will not hesitate,to order his ss,the 300,000 Islamic republican guards,to open fire on the demonstraters,as long the people of Iran are provided with the minimum essentials,like bread,sugar,cooking oil,there will be no revolution.
17. Keep up the fraud please
Zen ,   London   (06.14.09)
It is funny to watch Mr Obama bowing to the Dictatorships in Arab countries and betraying the poor and imprisoned peoples of those countries. Another four years of America licking the feet of Ahmadinejad will do democracy a lot of good in the end. Iranians are more damaged by Ahmadinejad than any other nation including Israel. Obama wants to talk to Iran but with Ahmadinejad in control this means Obama has to betray the democratic principles that he enjoys and the Iranian youth who voted for change; Yes we can! (Unless we are Iranians that is). Obama supports Aran dictators when Bush supported Arab democracy. The Arabs are destroying the reputation of Obama in the West. Hilarious hypocrisy!
18. We see what we want to see
publius ,   USofA   (06.15.09)
I don't for a moment think that the whole story is known, because it is shadowed by the desire to see iran in in the throws of a political challenge to the theoracy. First point to be made: the recent iranian election has nothing to do with a vote on a change in iranian foreign policy or nuclear program. This much is made clear in all media reports follow the election in clear language. However all reports go on to embellish the hope that the defeat of Ahmadinejad’ and his policy of provocation vis-à-vis the West is something that moderate iranians where voting for, nothing could be further from reality. this 'hope for result ' is in my opinion a Western media driven delusion. along the lines of if it is written therefore it must have some truth behind it, more wishful thinking on the part of western journalists than anything else. Don't get me wrong, I do believe many iranians desire the 'good life' and would like to see more liberties and freedom in making personal choices unfettered by the ruling theocracy. I just don't believe that is the majority opinion in Iran these days, there are too many people that have drunk the cool-aid in reguards to Israel/USA and the perception that the Western world is in decline and it is exactly the stewardship of the theocracy that is preserving the iranian youth(future) from excesses of the Western culture. Second point: I don't believe for a moment that Western media coverage is cynical enough to explore the possibility that the State Controls of the Theoracy continue to use the moderate camp to identify elements within the country that are not towing the line with respect to the cool-aid message of the State. And finally: If the Western media does not start acting as true journalists, then when Obama's team sits down with iran this fall, most of his cards will have been spent by the pundants, illustrating the the why for's and what not's of what this election means. Hence not revealing the play book of our negotiating stance but actually defining the preception of what the negotiating policy should be striving for. I've seen this process at work over many years: through our very own freedoms to debate an issue, we provide world class, first rate estimates of analysis that State Intelligence Services would die for, free of charge. At what point to you say, distractors listen to these folks and go into diplomacy mode knowing full well that the tit-for-tat points of the negotiations have gone through a role playing exerise in our media. Come on these guys are not that smart, what they have wisened up to is how to minipulate our position.
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