News
Visiting exile: Don't strike Iran
Ahiya Raved
Published: 06.01.10, 19:57
Comment Comment
Print comment Print comment
Back to article
30 Talkbacks for this article
1. So he says that to rid of Mullhas allow them to destroy Isra
Genuine Tosefta ,   Tveria   (01.06.10)
So he says that to rid of Mullhas allow them to destroy Israel Sorry, this is not a deal Israel can afford to make
2. With all due respect
Sarah B ,   U.S.A. / Israel   (01.06.10)
Karimi Hakak is overlooking one rather important point, which is that Iran is far more likely to initiate a direct conflict than is Israel. Iran has been goading its proxies in Lebanon (Hizbollah) and Gaza (Hamas) to ratchet up the level of violence towards Israel. Given Iran's seriously declining influence, however, these have for the most part not worked, eliciting only the minimal retaliatory response from Israel. Think of Hamas and Hizbollah as annoying gnats that Israel occasionally has to swat, and you will get an idea of what Hamas and Hizbollah can bring to a conflict with Israel, which is to say -- not much of anything. Of course, Israel has successfully interdicted seven or eight of Iran's attempts to resupply both Hamas and Hizbollah with weapons, to remarkable effect. In any event, it is not beyond the realm of possibility that Iran's desperate leadership may actually initiate hostilities with Israel under the mistaken notion that the Iranian people will rally around their government if Israel is the enemy. Although anyone familiar with the current desperate situation in Iran will know that such a ploy will not work, the mullahs and ayatollahs that run Iran either do not realize this or, more likely, do not care. Of course, it would spell certain doom for Iran because Israel will retaliate swiftly and purposefully. But no one credits Iran's current leadership with great insight and understanding of the geopolitics at play in the region and they most definitely either seriously underestimate Israel's capabilities or seriously overestimate Iran's capabilities. I suspect the latter – it would appear that the Iranian leadership has come to believe its own lies. Either way, Iran is teetering on the brink. It is likely that the mullahs and ayatollahs may not care if they bring down the temple walls with them. But one or another way, the Islamic Revolution is effectively over, and the people of Iran are ready for change.
3. Exactly the case in Iran
Hooman ,   Tehran-Iran   (01.06.10)
I'm an Iranian who is against the current establishment of Iran(and fully support the opposition). How ever if there were to be any foreign aggression against my country,I would fully support the retaliation of the current system and support my country in any fight. You may call me an agent of the system,but this is exactly the mentality of people here in Iran against any foreign aggression(this was proved in the 80's when saddam attacked Iran,since back then before the war,there were voices against the newly established islamic republic,but those voices diminished when the war broke out) Iran has a population of around 75 million,and just because there are some (mostly living abroad) who call for any military adventure,this does not by any means represent the voices from within. Unlike arabic countries,Iranians do have a sense of pride,and would shed their blood for their country(regardless of who's in charge of the country and who the invader is)
4. That would have worked well in Iraq
David ,   Montreal   (01.06.10)
In the end, it looks like Iraq will be as anti-Israel as it was under Saddam. The same is likely for Iran, even if the current regime falls. Israel should act in it's interests! Deal with the nukes now.
5. HE WAS MY PROFESSOR
Rachel Avraham ,   Netanya, Israel   (01.06.10)
Hey, when I was an undergrad at the University of Maryland, he was my professor and he was the best professor that I ever had. I did my final research paper in his class on the status of Iranian Jews in post-revolutionary Iran. Reading this article makes me have nostalgia for his class. He is one of the people that I miss most at the University of Maryland. Such a great man and so intelligent.
6. please hold me back
farrokh ,   tampa   (01.06.10)
that is wath the jew saing (please hold me back)to not attack iran,and this bahai gay who is trying to sarve his master jews by talking aboth my counrey iran should be put aginst wall.
7. To Hooman
Zak ,   Milwaukee, USA   (01.06.10)
Hooman, I understand your point and sympathize to an extent. Nobody wants outsiders to attack their country. And you know what, that's how Israelis feel, too. Iran has not directly attacked Israel, but it has been indirectly attack Israel for decades through Hezbollah, Hamas and Islamic Jihad, resulting in thousands of Israeli dead, many of them civilians. Has Israel attacked Iran in relatiation? No, despite the never-ending genocidal threats and Holocaust denial coming out of Tehran. Allow me to be blunt. I've met many wonderful Iranians, but to a T almost all of them are very self-centered when it comes to international relations. It's always about how the mullahs are oppressing you, how the economy is in the dumps thanks to the mullahs, etc. I've frankly never met an Iranian who really understands or appreciates the pain your regime causes other countries. Well let me tell you how the world works. When your country denies the Holocaust while threatening another one, all the while developing the capability to make good on the genocidal threat, you better damn well know that it's no longer just about "you." It's hypocritical to disassociate yourself from, or ignore, the terrible stuff your country does towards Israel and Jews (remember the bombings of the Jewish center in Argentina?) yet threaten a ferocious response if Israel feels that it has no choice other than to stop Iran from making good on its threats to destroy Israel. If the Israelis are convinced that Iran is about to cross the weaponized nuclear threshold, concerns about upsetting the Iranian street will not be Israel's first concern. It's not all about you. Every action initiates a reaction. If Israel attacks, it will be the fault of your leadership. Maybe place the blame where it belongs instead of reducing yourselves to blind nationalism. The argument is that if Israel attacks she's played into the Mullahs hands. Israel only plays into the Mullahs if Iranians play into the Mullahs hands by running out into the streets and screaming "Death to Israel, blah blah blah." Grow up, as a nation, grow up. As a society, grow up.
8. To #3 - then what should be done?
AlexB ,   Toronto, Canada   (01.06.10)
What can the world do to help Iranians overthrow their oppressors without bombing the Revolutionary Guard and Khamenei?
9. He's probably right... the same effect was observed on 9/11!
Scott ,   NY, USA   (01.06.10)
10. To: No. 3
Sarah B ,   U.S.A. / Israel   (01.06.10)
As I recall, the Iraq-Iran debacle lasted ten long years and cost half a million dead to Iran. Ten years to achieve a shame-faced draw with a vastly inferior Iraqi military? Throwing little boys in front of tanks towards the end? Obviously I am not Iranian and cannot speak with any certainty as to the Iranian mindset. But I do know that the economic situation in Iran is desperate -- rampant inflation, staggering unemployment, vastly reduced social services -- I'm not entirely sure that the Iranian people will rally around the current administration. Thirty years of stifling Islamic rule have been enough, wouldn't you say? Iran's greatest export over these thirty years has been its educated and professional classes. Frankly, there isn't much of anything left to rally around. What matters more to the Iranian people -- WHETHER you get rid of the mullahs (who live in the lap of luxury while the average Iranian struggles along to make ends meet and lives without electrical power for several hours each day) .... or HOW you get rid of the mullahs? I ask because I do not think that Israel will initiate hostilities against Iran, although I think that in sheer desperation, there is a strong likelihood that Iran will attempt something stupid against Israel. Israel has no territorial designs on your country; just a vested interest in getting rid of a regime that has wedded itself to -- and I quote Ahmedinejad -- "wiping the Zionist entity from the map." Israel has had to listen to thirty years of threats to its existence made by a country a scant 2200 kilometers away whose crippled economy has created a dire emergency indeed. Would you reject the opportunity to build a better Iran if it comes with a small assistance from Israel? Or is any assistance from Israel a priori unacceptable? I think I'm asking you quite simply what is the stronger impulse: your desire for freedom from the tyranny of the mullahs or how that freedom is achieved?
11. another wish...
Horst ,   Vienna, Austria   (01.06.10)
Hopefully, the Isreali rightist regime will collapse by the year's end as well. Two sources of evil would be gone.
12. screw the "Iranian people"
Persian Moshen ,   Jerusalem   (01.06.10)
they all unified before in 1978 to overthrow the Shah and usher in the reign of the Mullahs. it was a coalition of Tudor Commies, Shiite crazies, bazzar merchants and disgruntled military leaders. now they are insisting that we allow the Mullahs an opportunity to create an atomic bomb so they can buy time to alledgedly overthrow the Islamic Republic. Nonsense! The Iranian people are cowardly idiots and deserve to live under the repressive regime they created. Israel has no interest in hairbrain schemes to overthrow the Mullahs. Take out the nuclear facilities and let them all unify or disunify or disintegrate or rot in Shiite hell. They are just as anti-semtic as the Iraqis who everyone wanted to liberate and the blacks in South Africa. They do not deserve a regime change.
13. With all due respect Sara.....
Cali Cal ,   Los Angeles, USA   (01.06.10)
Why the heck would Iran ever need to confront/attack Israel directly? They do this now from a safe distance vis a vis Hezbollah and Hamas without any fear of retaliation. To think that Irans theocratic regime is on its death knell is naive and extremely idiotic. Iran plays their games knowing that Israel can not do anything effectively to stop them. Israel will not attack the Persian regime even tho they lead their people into thinking that they have the guts and capabilities to do so. Iran will not back down and you my dear know this. You can huff and puff all you want but you are not going to blow the house that is the Iran regime down.
14. YOU ERR IN UNDERSTANDING !!!.
Arn-Orao. ,   Sweden-Srbia.   (01.06.10)
Visiting exile: Don't strike Iran Israeli attack on Iran will unite Iranian people, delay regime's collapse, exiled director says SHOULD ISRAEL SACRIFICE ITSELF, FOR NOT TO DELAY THIS REGIMES COLLAPS ???. BESIDES, THEY CAN THEMSELVES START A CONFLICT WITH ISRAEL THROUGH THEIR DEPUTIES, SYRIA,HIZBOLAH AND HAMAS, AND THEN YOIN THE BATTLE THE REGIME IN IRAN CAN ONLY BE TOPPLED BY A MILITARY DEFEAT IN THE WORLD WAR TO COME. Should the current unrest in Iran continue, the regime may be replaced by the end of the year, Dr. Mahmoud Karimi Hakak said. THE CURRENT REGIME IN IRAN, IS PREPERED TO SLAUGHTER THE UNRESTING PEOPLES, THEY WOULD NOT HESITATE, IF IT IS WHAT IT TAKES TO STOP THE UNREST. THAT IS THEIR RELIGIOUS BELIEVES AND DUTY. The best approach would be to target Iran indirectly, by banning its leaders' from traveling and freezing Iranian bank accounts, he said. THAT WILL NEVER HAPPEN, CHINA IS IN NEED OF IRAN. Arn-Orao.
15. #6 "my country Iran"? Then what are you doing in Tampa?
Tahl ,   Ashdod, Israel   (01.06.10)
Isn't it extremely hypocritical to mock someone for befriending Jews and for wanting to rid "your country" Iran from the fanatic Islamofascist dictatorship (which you apparently defend) - while sitting in the decadent comfort of the land of the great Satan, who is supposedly owned by the "master jews" as you say?
16. To: No. 6
Sarah B ,   U.S.A. / Israel   (01.06.10)
Your country? Do you mean Iran? The last I checked, Tampa is in Florida, which is in the United States -- nicely distant from Iran. So your words are rather hollow and meaningless, you know?
17. Horst, where was your grandfather 65 years ago?
Judah ,   Golan Heights,ISRAEL   (01.06.10)
18. Even if Karimi Hakak is right the bet is too risky timewise
Joe ,   Canada   (01.06.10)
There is no garantee that Iran's regime is destined to "the dustbin of history" in less than one year given its demontrated willingness to use any means, fraud,torture,murder... to retain power. In the meantime with or without nuclear weapons & missiles to lauch them, it is a major cause of conflict or instability in Palestinian ranks, in Irak & through proxies in Lebanon, Syria & increasingly in Turkey, Venezuela, Brazil. The weak handling of the Iranian threat by the USA is only helping Iran getting more countries to increase their relations with the regime & undermining sanctions even before they are decided on. Unless the West has tremendously accurate intelligence evaluation of Iran's current & near future intentions & capabilities waiting an other year based on hope of internal upveal is a huge risk. No one can be sure what Iran might attempt within a year outside its borders either directly or more likely through proxies
19. This guy is CIA
IRAN#1   (01.07.10)
Don't trust him. He says what they tell him to say.
20. to #6
Iranian Jew ,   LA   (01.07.10)
Please learn how to check your spelling and then please learn some manners and respect others before you even try to enjoy this talkbacks. Or maybe you should not waste your time and let us just talk with each others. Please go get a nice cup of tea and knit a sweater or something like that.
21. #3 Is right...
Ashkan ,   Tehran   (01.07.10)
We really wont allow anyone dictate to us what rights we may or we may not have. That the whole point in this. I too do not approve the islamic republic(being the failure it was),but surely your problem is not with the regime in Iran alone. You just don't wish to see other countries in the MidEast(apart from yourselves)having the right to produce nuclear weapons. And that's not something people could bear. And trust me,the more you insist on this matter and use harsh language,the more determined we would be(at least this is the case in Iran). We have no problems with the jews(at least we don't look at them as enemies)but if you(as the sole representative of the jewish nation)are to threaten us,then we shall also respond accordingly. Remember, NOTHING CAN STOP THE WILL OF A NATION,and that also includes the use of military force( I believe vietnam was the best example to this). This is also the mind set of the opposition active inside Iran(and approved by its members)
22. To: No. 13 - Second Attempt
Sarah B ,   U.S.A. / Israel   (01.07.10)
Well, the problem with terrorist proxies is that their loyalty is directly tied to the amount of weapons and cash that their sponsors provide them. As I pointed out, very little in the way of weapons is reaching either Hamas and Hizbollah and, terrorists not being the most dependable sort, their willingness to play terrorist proxy for Iran has declined. For all of Hizbollah's and Hamas' trumpeting claims of victory in 2006 and 2009 respectively, quite the reverse is true, and they know it. Israel knows it, too. Iran is really down to playing its last card -- initiating a direct confrontation with Israel in the mistaken view that the Iranian people will rally round the Islamic regime. They won't. I know Iran will not back down. I'm actually counting on it. The Islamic regime seriously overestimates its military capacity, very much to its peril. What is it Machiavelli said? All power corrupts; absolute power corrupts absolutely. That would be quite true with respect to the tyrannical regime in Iran. The ordinary people of Iran are suffering. That there are even open demonstrations is testament to how dire the situation is -- Iran is not shy about imposing death sentences for even the most minor infractions; for the Iranian people -- who are well aware of this -- to demonstrate despite knowing full well what just may lie in store for them and to demonstrate nonetheless speaks powerfully of a beleaguered people who are heartily sick of Islamic tyranny. The Islamic regime will collapse within the year. Possibly even within the next several months. You, of course, are free to think otherwise. Keep in mind, though, that geopolitical pragmatism is not exactly Iran’s long suit. Finally -- don't discount Israel. For one thing, the Saudis and the Emirates have made it very clear that Israel can use their facilities for flyover and refueling purposes (thus eliminating the need to coax the United States to allow Israel to use Iraqi air space); they are tired of the Shi'ite regime meddling in their internal affairs with the clear desire to destabilize them. For another thing, it is one thing to have nuclear capacity; delivering a nuclear payload is the much more tricky part. Israel has both; moreover, Israel has ballistic missile defenses that can handle anything in the Irani arsenal. It would be suicidal for Iran to initiate hostilities with Israel, but Iran has painted itself into a corner. It is all out of options. The sanctions have crippled their economy; it won't take much to push the straw house that is Iran over the brink. I guess we'll just have to wait and see.
23. No such thing as uniting them
Brod ,   USA   (01.07.10)
Iranian democrats who oppose the Ayatollahs will like to see the tyrants removed. Eliminating the Ayatollahs' nuke factories will not unite them. It will hasten the downfall of the tyrants.
24. Iranian "revolution" is a trap for West made by
Rehavam ,   Israel   (01.07.10)
Iranian Revolutionary Guards. they buy time for mullas to ready the BOMB!
25. to Hooman
Iranian Jew ,   LA   (01.07.10)
The revolution in Iran is not going to change the status quo. Getting rid off one mullah to replace it with another one. Iranians will not have real democracy unless they learn to stop making decision based on logic and not by religion and ideology. You want religion to govern then Mahmoud is giving it to you in the best possible way. You can't have it both ways. The revolution in Iran is sparked by another snake named Rafsanjani. You guys are getting killed so this guy gets back on top. You can't expect others to sit still until Iranians make the change. We Iranians have always chosen to go with the wrong side. We got it right one time, but religion got in the way and destroyed it. I do not think attacking Iran is a good idea at all. But can you think of other alternatives? Also, the revolution will not work unless you are willing to kill. Mahmoud is willing to kill and he is doing it. Will you?
26. Another "expert"
DT ,   TA Israel   (01.07.10)
Who cares if a strike unites the Iranian people. That is the oldest "dupe" in the book.
27. To: No. 21
Sarah B ,   U.S.A. / Israel   (01.07.10)
So, what's your take on thirty years of daily threats made by Iran with respect to Israel? All that nastiness about "wiping the Zionist entity from the map" and all that vicious rhetoric about "destroying the heart of the Zionist entity" et cetera, ad nauseum. I wish also to point out to you that it is not just Israel that does not think a nuclear Iran is a particularly good idea; you can add every Western country to the list. Don't you think that Iran would be far better served by focusing its energies on its myriad economic problems rather than on existential threats to Israel? Are you so foolish that you think that Israel does not take seriously such threats? Are you so deluded that you think that Iran has the capacity to hurt Israel in a substantive way? Iran barely escaped with a humiliating draw against Iraq after a ten-year war which cost 500,000 Irani lives! Iraq's military was vastly inferior to Iran's! What happened to your "WILL OF A NATION" then .... and do you seriously think that you would fare better against Israel? Iran has an alligator mouth and a hummingbird @$$ -- challenging Israel is a supremely bad idea. Do you really need to learn this the hard way?
28. To: No. 11
Sarah B ,   U.S.A. / Israel   (01.07.10)
Hadn't you better temper your valor with some discretion coming, as you do, from the country that has produced some of the worst monsters the world has ever seen? Quite a birthright you have there. Do you enjoy the fact that your country is no longer known as the birthplace of Mozart but rather as the birthplace of Lueger, Hitler, Eichmann, Brunner, Seyss-Inquart, Heim, Kaltenbrunner and Waldheim (may their names be cursed throughout eternity), to mention but a few? Yours is a country of war criminals, which makes you the last person on earth with a right to critique Israel. With so much blood of innocents on Austrian hands, how do you even stand yourself?
29. #21 Ashkan
Iranian Jew ,   LA   (01.07.10)
Do you really blame Israel for fearing a lunatic like Mahmoud for having nukes? Israel does not give a crap if Iran have nuclear power but we both know that Iran could have had it peacefully if the mullahs wanted it. They also do not give a crap about nuclear power. It's another distraction that they are creating to trap you and me with the same all BS. Attacking Iran is not a good idea at all. I'm an Iranian and i do not want to see my own people hurt. But my own people can't decide what the heck they want. They will do anything in the name of religion and honor, but nothing for the good of their country. They protest and burn things so they can have another mullah telling them how to live. The problems in Iran's politics existed way before Israel. The mullahs just using Israel as an excuse. You say you like Jews and west and everyone else, but the fact is that the majority think like Mahmoud does. Oppositions are the same people that did the first revolution. Nothing has changed.
30. no.17
samuel ,   RSA   (01.07.10)
Dood question Judah but does the Arab loving Horst understand your jist ?
Back to article