Upsetting any of that delicate balance will push the region into war and kill many, many people. Sadly, Arabs are driven more by their hubris and pride than by practical or survival reasons. Another reason why keeping Israel in superior position is the key to future peace.

also before the 73 war ,many pundits and experts didn't foresee any war with israel's arab enemies, as we were to powerfull... we al know too well the results of that deterrence.... i opined to the contrary- the arabs now feel empowered by their freind in the white house, coupled with iran's arrogance that goes unchecked ,they all may feel that israel's vulnarabilty is the right time to strike.... guy bechor should chosse his analysis points more carefully.....

If it helps you sleep at night.

So we wait till we are weak ?!

This article seems like the writer is trying to convince himself.

To me it seems like the writer is reluctant to state it clear that you dont dare to start war now because of the rockets that people around you have which they hadn't a few years ago

Does Bechor really believe his own wandering logic?

Where it is period of calm, you think it is Israeli deterrence. I think you will by proved wrong very soon, there will be no peace on this land with this Israeli injustice.

no one is afraid of Israel. this pathetic coward is the laughing stock of the middle east,Israel must get rid of him immediately

i'm sorry to inform you that you are not on the mark, as convinced as you may be. there's a good chance of war soon.

Israel's current message should be clear and unequivocal: "Don't mess with us." Peres and Barak confuse that message by focusing so much on how "We want peace" (Peres) or "We need peace" (Barak). Given that Israel's neighbors make clear they neither want nor need peace, those expressions just suggest Israeli weakness, and weakness only invites aggression. The reference to 1973 is apt. Then too, especially soon after the Six Day War and War of Attrition, there was "the conception" that the Arabs wouldn't *dare* attack. One shouldn't fall into that trap today.

... actually the real challenge is the Iranian (nuclear) threat, not Israel's neighbours.

prepare for the next war that is surely coming. do not be like the arrogant Israeli leadership in 1973 and 2006.

knows little to nothing, controls everything. Guess who will determine the destinies of millions. Wirters of opinion for the media? When surrounded by fanatics, wise men know to be prepared for everything. Shock & awe will work nicely for Israel - on a once for all basis. Forget the opinion writers.

The war is today, Bechor. Prepare yesterday! Some never learn from Yom HaKippurim. Train hard, fight easy. Train NOW.

Iran, Syria, Hez & hammas will roll in to west bank and kill any pals so they can get into israel during war. You wanted this war and your going to get it, LITTERALLY. For years you have been a stye in their eye and a thorn in their side and now what you sought for isreal is your own demize

powerful Hizbollah deterrence make prospect of war in summer slim. The situation is a two ways street.

I suspect the exact opposite is the truth to this article and that we are now approaching war. Hezbollah are stronger than ever and the last war emboldened them to the point where they could even send men into israel. Syria may not be ready for a direct frontal attack it is ready however to bleed us via Hezbollah Iran is ready to see anybody and everybody get embroiled with us This was not a good article it was not honest. Until Hezbollah are substantially and evidently subdued and beaten they will merely grow stronger and bolder and every more threatening Better to act whilst we have a qualitive edge or will we wait until as usual it is almost neck and neck Moshe

The Muslims beat the Zionists!!! he Muslims beat the Zionists!!! nyaa nyaa nya nya nyaaaa!!! Or at least that's what the Arabs and Pallies keep telling us as they stand on top of the heaps of rubble that were not there before Cast Lead and Lebanon 2. Bechor is right: rockets shmockets. They hurt us, but they do not break us. What breaks somebody is the massive retaliatory strikes Hezbollah and Hamas received for their stupidity. Hezbollah admitted their mistake. Hamas will never admit theirs, even while Gaza crumbles around them. They are both testosterone-laden boys wanting bigger and bigger killing toys. Rockets, if fact. And yes, the rockets and testosterone reference certainly tells the world something about their puerile mentality and feelings of inadequacy. Yes, Hezbollah and Hamas wiped our tushies in the last wars. They clobbered us. They defeated the mighty zionist IDF. Nobody can take that away from them. Especially when they yell it from the rubble heaps and graveyards. Bechor was also right in that they learned that pushing Israel too hard means we'll kick back. We kicked back. But remember, we lost oh so big to the mighty Islamic armies. That's why tens of thousands of Israeli soldiers were defeated in Lebanon and Gaza, by the smarter Islamic soldiers who stealthily did not invade Israel. Must've been a strategic move on their part not to invade. Part of the "victory", right?

Bechor seems to harp on the effect of deterrence just as 1967 did. However, come the Yom Kippur War, Israel was caught with its pants down. The lulling effect of thinking that the fear put in the enemies' mind would deter them from attacking Israel is not accurate. It failed in 1973 which proved costly and painful to Israel. Fortunately, a brilliant Judeo-Christian man named Nixon was President of America at that time who came to Israel's aid despite the opposition of the AntiSemites in the other departments of his administration. Be careful with the lulling effect. Don't repeat history. Israel's enemies are now armed with heavy missiles. And America's President is an AntiSemite.

Brian got it right and Guy Bechor is correct as well. Most of Israel's adversaries except Iran, have a long history of ass whippings to draw upon when they let their rhetoric and testosterone mix. Most of what is said by their these countries officially or even the many posters here that carry their water are like howling at the moon. Nazrallah knows very well what the "next time" really entales. He said it himself. If he knew what the consequences of his actions in 2006 would be, he wouldn't have done the kidnapping. Hezballah and Hariri know what the "next time" will mean. If Lebanon took a pasting in 2006, can you imagine what would happen the "next time" if Nazrallah shoots even one rocket into Israel now that he is a member of the govt ? Syria knows very well that the nuclear reactor "take out" was but a mere example of what his tin pot govt would receiveif either Hezballah or his master in Teheran miscalculates. Syria hasn't gone toe to toe with Israel since 1982, but still, in their minds they know that they can't dance with Israel. Iran is actually in the worst position here. They are in a vise at the moment. They as a regime are under alot of pressure. If they try using the Hezballah or Syrian tactic to take off pressure, they will weaken them. If on the otherhand they do nothing , the vise will not ease. If Iran shoots missles at Israel, it would be crippled as a modern state, unable to function and provide what services that distinguish all modern societies from the wilderness. I believe Guy has stated this clearly and too bad if it doesn't fit neatly into anyone's misconceptions of what is currently happening. Every time Israel is attacked, Israel gets stronger. This axiom prevails.

They both have new model Scuds and lots of them. Syria has an eastern missile base that could launch hundreds of rockets before Israel could strike back. With Google Maps and GPS, even Syria could attack Israeli airbases all over the country and do terrible damage. If the dwarf in Iran says 'I pay for all damage sustained in Israel's response...' then it's a win-win for Hizbollah and Syria. The countries will be rebuilt with fewer people- Assad's cronies get to steal more property and 'dorment' bank accounts and Hizbollah is the king of Lebanon. Bechor does no service by lulling everyone to sleep.

Did Rabin knew that after Oslo in 3 years more Jewish civilians will die than in the previous 40 years. Rabin was a very smart man.

...of the time. See Nancy Kanwisher from MIT and her team's research from 2000-2008. Every time there is a perceived lull, Israel breaks it for fear peace might break out. Israel never misses an opportunity to miss an opportunity, so when Bibi breaks these initial talks down with some announcement of more building or other idiocy, the world will see the last straw broken.

...it was interesting how you tried to frame your insulting tirade, yet you seem to have forgotten that it is actually the other way around. The third or fourth largest US supplied military on the planet, a nation that has made militancy a national art, beat down some rag tag forces that have little more than homemade rockets, kalishnokovs, and rocks as "weapons". And what has Israel gained from this Gaza beat down you crow about? Less security then ever before in its history, less international support than ever in its history, and less legitimacy to wage war against innocent civilians then ever in its history. Keep up the great work with your example of impotence, your comment and your fake organization: "Peoples Front of Judea" Which proves beyond a shadow of a doubt, your need to emulate them, you want a name just like them, you write comments just like you would have us believe of them, you *are* them. I'll stick with the rule of law thanks.