Just like the PCBS, he himself distorts data on a regular basis. He downplayes the still much higher Arab fertility rate, understates the number of Palestinians in the west bank and ignores the higher mortality rate of Jews than Arabs (more than twice as high per 1000 population). He blames former demographers who made doomsday predictions decades ago, by saying that they were unaware of certain factors that occured afterwords that aided the Jewish population numbers in Israel. But he is pretty much counting on future unknown factors (as of now) that will keep aiding Jewish demography. He expects Arab birth rates to continue to decline and Jewish birth rates to rise. He cannot see the future, unfortunately. Remember, he aspires that Israel continue to hold the west bank. He himself has an agenda.

Go into the Israeli Central Bureau of Statistics website, and wintess there how the Jewish majority steadily declines each year by about 0.1-0.2%. The Israeli-Arab fertility rate, while indeed decreasing, is still around a whopping 4 children per woman. Given these alarming facts, there is no other feasible alternative than the two-state solution, with the necessary territorial exchanges (Arab towns near the green line for the future "Palestine", in exchange for major Jewish population centers in Yesha for Israel). We must realize that keeping all the settlements would bury Israel's Jewish character..

Oh by all means...it has to happen very soon. PCBS IS more responsible, more sensitive, and more honest, they don't need a certificate from anyone, of coures not from you Mr. Ettinger. If Ben-Gurion and Herzl are still alive they would seek forgiveness three times from the Jews before anyone else, Know why? Unfortunately, because they are real leaders..... I admit it.

is like the BS about global warming. Bullshit baffles brains. For those imbeciles who still believe the earth is melting to the point of oblivion I invite you to come to Montreal over the next two months and we'll see if at the end of that time, you;'ll still parrot global warning. In short..Its the Jews Ghetto attitude that feebles it. You are a nation and a rising one..Stop pissing in your pants and carry on with what has to be done. Stop wiping your ass and apologizing for being alive and well.

muddy and discouraging state of popular demographic studies in and about Israel. The shift in this article is his reference to other research which supports and widens his understanding. I always google Eittinger when I read other studies or have the need to counter other Talkbackers.

EVERYBODY has an agenda, Joad. That includes YOU!!! Not to mention Salam in "Palestine".

The inevitable day of a Palestinian Arab majority between the river and the sea is coming fast, whether it is in 2014 or 2015 or 2020. That day is coming and that is when we Palestinians will demand the one-state solution, one man equals one vote.

Just to make sure this isn't a problem

Ettinger did, and he ignored key demographic data.

True and irrelevant. Without the west bank, E. Jerusalem and Gaza, Israel holds a solid Jewish majority of over 80%. Ettinger is wrong about the speed of Arab demographic decline, but eventually birth rates inside the green line will converge, as long as Israel does not continue holding the WB or E.Jerusalem.

Somewhere in the middle. There is a demographic threat, it is not a time-bomb, but it shouldn't be ignored. Still, ettinger is not a demographer.

Excellent column. Thank you. I've always trusted Yoram Ettinger's demographic figures, although a blogger (Samson Blinded News) cited data by the Israeli Central Bureau of Statistics indicating that the birth rate is 2.8 among Jews and 3.7 among Arabs. It's possible that the Arab figures were inflated too. IN ANY CASE, one can't take for granted that things will stay as they are. The future may bring in additional variables we haven't even thought about that could put the thin Jewish majority in jeopardy. ************ There have been polls that indicate that a large proportion of Arab young people - in Israel, the PA and Gaza - would like to emigrate. Why not institute a policy RIGHT NOW to financially assist them? It's not enough to count noses and hope that there will always be more Jews than Arabs in the country. You have to get pro-active. Whatver gains are made with Aliyah, they are defeated by a large margin through the infiltration of Africans and other non-Jews who manage to stay. Or by Arab family reunification programs. Some ideas: - Get the UNHCR and UNWRA to take charge of refugees in camps outside Israel. Infiltrators can choose to go to UN camps and then relocated, or go back home. - Build a border fence that works. Not one that can be easily breached. Get high technology for border surveillance. It's not only migrants you should worry about but terrorists too. - The government should have some PITY FOR THE JEWS of Israel and stop the Arab reunification program. Give Arabs who marry outsiders help to relocate elsewhere with their brides. - Start a pilot program to give financial help to Arabs willing to emigrate. Whether the country ends up partitioned or not, this policy should be a permanent part of Israel's program to remain a Jewish country. Those who insist on being politically correct should remind themselves that this condition in the case of the Jews of Israel is SUICIDAL. The Jews of Israel must make up their minds: It's Israel's survival or political correctness. YOU CAN'T HAVE BOTH. And American Jews eager to criticize politically incorrect Israeli Jews still haven't confronted their parents' own past, when they chose their own comfortable social status in the US over calling for the end of the slaughter of Jews in Europe. They thought it was politically incorrect to appear to be more Jewish than American. Result: incredible suffering and millions of Jewish lives lost. Same thing now. They want to fit in with their liberal friends and demand high standards from the beleaguered Israeli Jews. They don't seem to care, however, for the possibility that thanks to their efforts Israel may cease to be a Jewish country some day.

The temparature in Montreal the last few days has been above zero! It finally went down slightly below today. This is VERY UNUSUAL for December/January! Global warming is here just as the demographic threat to Israel is there.

I just read that Israel has extended the ban on PA Arabs obtaining citizenship through marriage to Israeli Arabs. However, it is my understanding that Bedouin have a more informal way of bringing in brides from the PA, and there is no government control on this matter. Maybe their PA wives won't get citizenship, but their children might. I don't know what the law says about this.

An anti-Israel pro-Arab agenda but it is a MYTH, a FICTION, like so much else that people fight their war with and promote their own mythical religions and false nationhood.

Thanks to Ynet for publishing it. Even the BBC's Middle East editor now acknowledges that the PCBS forecast (not an actual census!) is disputed. Bacchi did some great work in spite of Ettinger's criticism. I would recommend reading Arieh Avneri's "The Claim of Dispossession" for anyone who has ever wondered, from the 19th century on, how many native-born Palestinian Arabs resided in towns and villages versus Egyptians, Hawranis, Algerians, Syrians, and others whom the British brought to built railroads and work in the Mandatory civil service. In the Jordan Valley and elsewhere, Bedouin raids and poor soil saw fellahin abandoning villages year after year, with little if any permanent population, while immigrant Arabs tripled Haifa's population in 20 years. It's a very good read.

This is a matter in the west as well as israel. The main talk is when will the muslims reach parity with its neigbours. Well its the big question, people are worried about this situation, take england for example, so as usual, the future , no person on the earth has a crystal ball to what demagraphic wil be. So obviously the ones to watch for are the muslims with there 20 to one ideology, and this is the major scare tactic all around the west. SO what will happen in the future , will arabs birthrates grow to higher levels, this is most propbably a big YES. So what do you do to keep the population un-affected. This is a hard reality, but the bottom line is, in israel we must not let this become a reality, say no to muslims in israel. You dont want to wake up one day and go OH - I am surrounded by NON Jewish people who are like total foreigners and shouldnt be there.

Akko last riots proven it is very sensitive situation.

arab palestine is jordan--already 80% of mandatory palestine--fact is there is no distinct 'palestinian' language,culture,history or land --it is the jews who need all the land west of the river,not the arabs

arab birth rate in the 80's to 2000 was 4.6-4.7, but as of 2008 it was down to 3.84. jewish birth rate now stands at 2.88. also note, haredi birth rate is 7.6. they doble every 12 years. if the israeli haredi population increases from 10-20% of the jewish population, it will cause the jewish birth rate to increased to 3.4 at the same time, the arabs are acculturating and dropping their rate (with the exception of the beduin, but i'm not sure how giving away the west bank helps that problem since the bediun live in teh negev and are mostly freiendly (though highly criminal)

Yawwwwn, i cant remember how many times the author has written about the same topic. Well, this is what you do when you run out of ideas! I liked the use of the term "psycholigcal terrorism" though lol. The author is implying that if some demographers and statistician got it wrong in the past, then the current predictions has to be wrong as well! which is of course logically false. If the rest of Israelis share the author's unjustifiable optimism, the state of Israel can be in a great danger in my opinion! Hope for the best. but prepare for the worst.

East Jerusalem was formally annexed and the city of Jerusalem unified on June 28, 1967. The Arab residents of Jerusalem became citizens of Israel on that date, a status which they enjoy to this day. While they also enjoy Jordanian citizenship, thanks to Jordan's 1954 Citizenship Law, it seems they prefer to be Israeli. I wonder why.

Your statistics don't even approach accuracy. For the record, the infant mortality rate among Arabs is 22.4 per 1,000 live births. Among Jews, it is 4.17 per 1,000 live births. The most serious issue with respect to Arab demographics is cosanguinity. It is among the highest in the world, rivaled only by French Canadians in Quebec. It really isn't a very good idea to marry your first cousin or your uncle. Genetic defects among Israel's Arab population are a serious issue; one which will only continue to worsen. Who the hell cares how many babies you have if most will never learn how to read?

#13 Marcella. Your suggestions are great, like usual. Israel must get proactive about demography.We know the P.A., and it's leftist Israeli allies, are lying in a bid to pressure Israel to cede Judea and Samaria to our enemies. We know Jews are a growing majority in our nation, including Judea and Samria. However, there is so much that can be done to strengthen Israel's Jewish majority. We need to invest in paying Arabs to leave our land as so many wish to. This is win/win for everyone. For the Arabs, it is a sought after chance for a new life. For Israel, it is a one time investment with permanent returns. Israel would save billions annually on security alone.

#3 Salma. In 1948, Arab armies urged Arabs to leave nascent Israel for the war. They pledged the Arabs would return "very soon" to plunder defeated Israel. In 1967, Nasser promised that Israel would be defeated "very soon". Arafat constantly pledged Israel would fall "very soon". Now you say Arabs would outnumber Jews in Israel "very soon", which means never. You'd be wiser to bet on Israel annexing Judea and Samaria and 1,000,000 Jews calling Judea and Samaria their home very soon. That's reality.