The experts got it wrong
Guy Bechor
Published: 11.02.11, 00:59
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1. My Guess: The Army and Police Will Rule
Noah Lev ,   HollywoodUSA   (02.11.11)
Im listening to the soothing music of a Beethoven sonata, while reading the latest on Egypt and Obama's folly. Where did he first to, after elected, to Muslim states and Cairo U..equating the Pales tragedy to the Holocaust. Wowo., talking about naivety or just plain dumb, dumb. Afthanistan is a joke..and Iraq' was hit (again) by a suicide bomber. Pakistan lost dozens of military students when a teenager committed suicide. Pakistan has 100 nukes and 1m in its army...to fight India, not a teen apparently. Jordan's army is too powerful to be overthrown..Egypt's military is over 500,000 w/o reserves. Iran has 10 in uniform. Mubarak was good and bad for Egypt.but not loved like Nasser. Lets not forget yearly army maneuvers.."Next year in Jerusalem", Israel loses no matter.. it will always lose in the M.E. But it debates who is a Jew and the Charedi power. My view: the army, police and secret services will take over Egypt..and rule..with a puppet parliament. Mubarak will retire to Palm Beach Gardens, Florida..and enjoy his new found comrades.
2. Spot on!
citizen   (02.11.11)
Guy Bechor, very good analysis -amazing, you have just echoed my thoughts - thanks.
3. Israeli wishful thinking....
Mikesailor ,   Miami, FL   (02.11.11)
Mubarak is on his way out. When the Egyptian Army, realizing that they risk fracturing their institution, will move him out fairly soon. As the strikes spread by the dockworkers and government workers, the Eyptian economy will force the military to move. The false bravado exhibited by a president and authoritarian regime the citizenry does not fear anymore, does not matter. The military's neutrality is no longer viable.
4. in 100 % of your opinions, you got it wrong - everything...
eporue ,   europe   (02.11.11)
so this now, is no exception... you are the blindest of all opinion-writers...
....DACON9   (02.11.11)
6. By now we should know...
Lobo ,   USA   (02.11.11)
that if the Obama supports something or someone in the Middle East, it's time to worry. On the other hand, if Obama doesn't want something/someone in the Mid-East, they're probably doing something right.
7. Hey Guy, the Egyptian military is...
Persian CAT   (02.11.11)
first and foremost a business! Nonesnese like, "at the end of the day the regime managed to regain its legitimacy" only proves its YOU who doesn't understand the Egyptian "theater". Is there any thearter you'd understand?! I doubt it.
8. Experts not from M.E.
yousuf ,   USA   (02.11.11)
The "experts" he speaks of are not from the mideast, as well as the author, who claims that arabs see aljazeera as a propoganda tool. where did u get this from, your foot! Also, the only reason everyone calls islamists violent, is because you cant bribe them with money to shut up and listen.
9. on #4, eporue
joel ,   usa   (02.11.11)
10. The military will force Mubarak to leave
Rachel ,   US   (02.11.11)
The workers are now joining the protests. They can bring Egypt to its knees economically. This can not go on for too much longer before Egypt collapses. And Mubarak really lit the fuse with this lame "resignation speech."
11. Bechor is as blind as Mubarak
Ben Alofs ,   Bangor   (02.11.11)
Both cannot see the writing on the wall. The regime has regained its legitimacy?? After last years scandalously rigged parliamentary elections? You are a joke, Bechor. Desperate for authoritarian rule to go on in Egypt, only because it suits Israel.
12. An obvious progression
Michael Storch ,   Jerusalem, Israel   (02.11.11)
Colonel Nasser, Colonel Sadat, General Mubarak ... Quick! Guess what is going to happen next!
13. #8, the other reason
NC ,   Canada   (02.11.11)
The other reason everyone calls islamists violent is because they blow themselves up.
14. It was the first demonstration
John   (02.11.11)
of that kind in Egypt. Well, they -- the people of Egypt -- have to master their skills, if they wanna get something. BTW, what Egyptians are aiming at? What they wanna get? Freedom? Independence? Nobody knows...
15. When do ''experts'' ever get it right?
Terry ,   Eilat - Israel   (02.11.11)
As soon as I see the word ''experts'' I'm immediately sceptical. The vast majority of ''experts'' either have an agenda, usually but not always liberal or leftist, or they are so politically correct as to make their assessments worthless. Common sense is generally MIA. Particularly in the Middle-East, most ''experts'' have no real understanding of the history, culture, or social structure of the various countries in the region. We in Israel should not be smug about 'the failures of America's idiot experts, most of our ''experts'' have been wrong for 60 years.
16. So You Think You're an Expert, Mr.Guy Bechor!
Salma ,   Palestine   (02.11.11)
Just LOL.
17. Another "expert" gets it wrong
berlonski ,   berlin   (02.11.11)
18. the threat comes from an iranian owned syria & lebanon
zionist forever   (02.11.11)
The real threat to Israel probably doesn't come directly from Egypt but from Assad being toppled. In Syria the Muslim Brotherhood are the only opposition to Assad. What would happen if the Muslim Brotherhood who are an influential part of the coalition encourage or even help the Syrian branch to rise up and topple Assad. Syria is already in the pocket of Iran, Assad supports the islamists Hamas & Hizbollah ( Hizbollah have already taken Lebanon ). What happens if a puppet islamist government in Syria allowed Iran to build a military base near Israel's norther border. Making peace with Syria would not solve this problem and it would be a huge mistake to give up the Golan in such unstable times.
19. if Mubarak stays economic meltdown and anarchy if he
avrom ,   bet shemesh   (02.11.11)
goes there will be anarchy
20. Obama's been in office for a little over two years...
esnufnstl ,   USA   (02.11.11)
So it seems a little silly to blame in for decades of suffering which has led to the current unrest in Egypt. However I suppose it's easier than looking at the root cause: American and Israeli support of a dictator that cared more about staying in power than providing for his people. Mr. Bechor has taken a risky position as if Mubarak does fall (and I believe he will sooner rather than later) I'll always remember Mr. Bechor as the man who said it wouldn't happen.
21. alternative explanation
Israel Israeli ,   Tel Aviv   (02.11.11)
After Obama gave Lebanon to the Syrians, Iran's next target is Egypt followed by Saudi Arabia. The protests may have been originally spontaneous, but without a small organized and well-funded (by Iran) minority of activists, the protests would have fizzled out. Iran isn't out to take over Egypt, but to make the US unable to defend its interests in the Middle East. Weakening the Egyptian central government will lead to a period of increased anarchy, crime and a loss of personal security hand in hand with a downwardly spiraling economy. The next government will have no choice but to be more violent and alienated from the people, and won't have the economic means to improve their lot. Any time some stability is achieved, Iran's agents will do something to ensure that the stability doesn't last. With increasing anarchy and poverty, people will turn to Islam and the Brotherhood, whether for food, support, protection, or most importantly, dignity. Egypt is no longer be able to assist the US, and any American attack on Muslims will close the Suez Canal. The Iranians will be able to import massive amounts of arms to Sinai unhindered for their attack on Saudi Arabia. Obama has done far more damage to the United States than most people realize.
22. Oh nooooo......Guy Bechor now world's biggest fool!
esnuffnstl ,   USA   (02.11.11)
23. esnufnstl #20 care to offer any examples?
Gee ,   Zikron Yaakov   (02.11.11)
Can you show us one example of how we have ever supported Mubarak? Come on big mouth put up or shut up. You come here time and again proving how ignorant you are about us. You are a total idiot.
24. One "expert" more
Suomipoika ,   Finland   (02.11.11)
This article's author, supposedly expert, seems to not know that modern days Egyptians are arab invaders and occupiers from 7th century. Aboriginal Egyptians are an insignificant minority in their own land if there are any left of them.
25. Now, that's what I call timing!!
Vitor ,   Lisbon, Portugal   (02.11.11)
Thak you, Mr Bechor. I've really enjoyed reading your words and how wrong you are.
26. Guy Bechor...
Daniel Francis ,   Michigan   (02.11.11)
is probably not going to be making any statements in the near future. :)
27. lol
28. Jordan is Next
Marco   (02.12.11)
Israel days are coming harder
29. lol ...what a classic ! FAIL !!
brett ,   usa   (02.12.11)
30. ooops
mike ,   paris   (02.12.11)
apparently dear guy ure the one who got it all wrong..give the egyptians their credit..with the help and pressure of the west, they got rid of their tyrant..when will israel get rid of its 'islamists' aka liebermann who is as open minded as mubarak or khamenei are!
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