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The new southern threat
Alex Fishman
Published: 10.03.11, 08:54
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1. Threat?
pete ,   UK   (03.10.11)
Israel had 30 years of Mubarak and did nothing
2. The trouble with most "experts" is that they
jason white ,   afula, israel   (03.10.11)
are wrong more often than not. Israel should be in the process of building divisions of armor and armored infantry. More artillery brigades and more fighter bombers. Also all the I.D.F. warehouses should be stocked 100%. What are we waiting for? Another Yom Kippur war? Why wasn't the I.D.F. prepared for a new war with egypt, even after the camp david agreement? There should be a large increase in the defense budget now! No more draft dodging! No I.D.F.service, then prison time for three times the amount of years.No early marriage or pregnancy should affect the women from serving also. No more draft dodging for a year in national service. Let all those that did not serve pay a 100 shekel per month defense tax on themselves and their children. No more child allowances for draft dodging families or single parents.No more money for non Zionist institutes. We need to be prepared for the worst and not listen to experts or generals.
3. THE ONLY PROBLEM I SEE IS -
Orao. ,   Srbia.   (03.10.11)
- AS NOW - ISRAEL SITTING IDLE !. AN OFFENCE IS THE BEST DEFENCE !. The basic premise in Israel is that should the peace treaties be annulled, -THEN ISRAEL SHOULD EMEDIATELY STRIKE EGYPT WITH ITS AIR FORCE !. Orao.Srbia.
4. after 2 weeks in egypt, i tell you: they want revenge
STEPHAN ,   YAFFO   (03.10.11)
5. Spouters of doom.
Daniel ,   Haifa, Israel   (03.10.11)
Also we should not listen to Jason White.
6. To Jason White
Gregg ,   Haifa, IL   (03.10.11)
You are a damn crazy guy !! your post is so funny !!
7. Excellent article # 2
Moshe ,   UK   (03.10.11)
You are so right. A very big war is on the horizon. Half of Israel will be wiped out ! If not prepared. Egypt will join in with the rest of the Arabs
8. "Neglect"?!?!? Bad choice of word by YNET
Brian Cohen ,   Judean Peoples Front   (03.10.11)
The benefit of peace with a former enemy is that you don't have to invest in the same defensive and offensive measures. It's not neglect, it's called the benefits of peace with your neighbor. While the Egyptian rabble might be clamoring for war, I don't believe that most Egyptians want it. They aren't the ignorant Islamic sheep that Iran, Iraq, Al-Qaeda and others are famous for sacrificing. Military functions were indeed curbed as a direct result of peace with Egypt. THANK G-D!!!! Let's work to keep it that way.
9. #4 revenge for what ?
ytzhak ,   france   (03.10.11)
10. Perhaps Egypt is tired of Sinai and want us to take it
Yaniv ,   Israel   (03.10.11)
11. another scenario
Israel Israeli ,   Tel Aviv   (03.10.11)
Fishman forgets to mention another, more likely, scenario. Egypt is too poor to fight a tank-on-tank war against Israel and the Islamists are too busy digesting Egypt. They will be unable and unwilling to exert their sovereignty on Sinai. What will probably happen is that Sinai will become a center of anarchy, flooded by Iranian Revolutionary Guard, Al Qaeda and other Jihadists, including veterans of Afghanistan, Iraq and Chechnya. They will give Hamas strategic depth, unlimited supplies of weapons and many highly experienced fighters. They will make cross-border attacks on Eilat and Israeli borders patrols (current units will be replaced with Paratroopers and Golani). Sinai will become a launching pad for attacks on Saudi Arabia, American interests in the Mediterranean, and during the next Israel-Hamas war, a launching site for massive rocket launches (Fajr 5) on Eilat, Mizpe Ramon and Beer Sheva. Thank you Sharon and Kadima for making this happen.
12. Them now the F-16 and F-15 will destroy them.
ROSENVALD ,   BRASIL   (03.10.11)
Them now who have the best pilot. Them now if them star a war, Israel will destroy them ,and USA will cut money and guns for them. Them may hate Israel,but them are not crazy.
13. wisdom
Aly ,   Cairo , Egypt   (03.10.11)
If Israel is looking for peace with its neighbores , it should : - Not present anymore offers for negotiations with whoever . The Israeli administration has no credebelity in the area , everyone knows that . - Should do what it can to better its image by taking loooooooong needed mesures against all internal actions that keep provoking the hole world . Any regime in Egypt will have to respect Egyptians will and that takes us back to my first point . You want to reach the Egyptian mind , work on the Palestinian Human and Political rights . You can do that without help from any one . But the question has always ben : Does Israel realy want peace or more land ?
14. @ 2
Sheik Rattle & Roll ,   USA   (03.10.11)
First you need to pay your soldiers. The rate of pay for an Israeli soldier is a shame and disgusting. You ask your country men to sacrifice a few years of there lives for what? less money than a baby sitter. Conscription militaries are things of the past.
15. ?
john   (03.10.11)
The writer states, "For almost 30 years, the Israeli government did not ask the IDF what it possesses vis-à-vis the Egyptian front, what it needs, how much time it will take to prepare, and how much it will cost" May we ask how he knows such intimate relational details between the Prime Minster's Office and the Top Brass?
16. War with Egypt
Mike caton ,   USA   (03.10.11)
There is no doubt in my mind that Egypt will soon be a radical Islamic state, ruled by the Muslim Brotherhood and their ilk. Therefore a war with Egypt in which Israel has no choice but to retake Sinai and Gaza, is not a "possibility" but rather, a certainty.
17. Moral: Never cede any of our land again.
Chaim ,   Israel   (03.10.11)
For decades, Israel's peace treaty with Egypt was cited by "land for peace" advocates as a great success. However, like every single Israeli retreat, it is a total disaster. Had we kept the strategically and militarily invaluable Sinai, we'd have little cause to worry about who rules Egypt. Had we kept the Sinai, war with Egypt would be very unlikely and easily winnable by us, if it occurred. Ceding the Sinai makes war far more likely and harder to win. The moral is simple. Never cede any of our land again.
18. The truth
Abou Yosef ,   Alexandria , Egypt   (03.10.11)
As an Egyptian I can tell you thatEgypt is not interested in any war with any one. We understand the price of war because we did that before. W e need peace as much as you need it for the sake of our kids future.
19. Agree with #2 and #17
Moshe ,   Netanya   (03.10.11)
Even if England accepts 10 million from N. Africa, it would not solve the problem of Arabs. They have many men, no jobs, and no jobs in the future. College grads are not going to farms. Perhaps, EU can take 20-30 mil Arabs? I do not know.
20. War with Egypt
Albert Camus ,   Amsterdam   (03.10.11)
There is nothing new in the article. Mr. Fishman does however miss the most important point of possible hostilities with Egypt: it will/would be a symmetric war. Israel would easily win a symmetric war. So why start something you know you will lose? A second point is the question of economic aid. Egypt needs western economic aid desperately. The people now expect a better life. Starting a war with Israel is not the best way to get western economic aid. A more likely scenario is an increase in Hamas-type activities along the whole border with Egypt. If this does happen then war with Egypt and re-occupation of the Sinai may unfortunately be necessary. On the other hand, if the new Egyptian leaders believe that Israel is willing to go to war they will keep the Sinai peaceful.
21. #17
Logic ,   Israel   (03.10.11)
The peace agreement with Egypt is important. I'm the last person to advocate the "Land for Peace" formula, but so far that agreement held up well.
22. #18 Abou Yosef, #13 Aly
solomon ,   bklyn   (03.10.11)
#18 Abou Yosef- Good to hear your voice. "We need peace as much as you need it for the sake of our kids future." Amen. #13 Aly- The question re: peace or land should be directed to the "Pals". They have shown they don't want peace, only land. They are unwilling to recognize Israel's right to be there and will not promise that any agreement will be the end of all demands. Duh. Read #18 Abou Yosef TB. We see none of that attitude from the "Pals". They continue to teach their children hatred, from an early age.
23. 8
zionist forever   (03.10.11)
You are probably right the Egyptians don't want another war but this should serve as a reminder treaties which can take years to negotiate can be broken overnight with regime change. Over the years the past 20 years the IDF has been downgraded to a glorified anti terror force that doesn't fight major wars and its Lebanon that was a wake up call. Egypt was another wake up call that reminded us that nothing is certain. We got used to Mubarak and just sat back told ourselves Egypt is no threat. Right now the region is so unstable Israel having to fight a war with somebody is an increasing possibility. If your a dictator trying to hold onto power whats the best way to get the masses to rally around you? If Assad is forced to fight for his survival he may decide he has nothing to loose by going to war with Israel. It might be a lost cause and he knows he will loose but at this stage it can't hurt to try if there is an outside chance he can hold onto power. If we are not ready for wars we are the ones who loose them even if the enemy is inferior.
24. #18
Logic ,   Israel   (03.10.11)
I agree with you Sir. The problem is that there are no instant solutions to Egypt's economic problems, and any future Egyptian government may distract the public by warmongering. The Qaradawi fellow is especially worrying, since even though he or his group won't take power immediately, they want to take over the Egyptian religious establishment, influence the government towards belligerency and turn your country in a belligerent direction. On his very first speech back in Egypt, he called for a march on Jerusalem!
25. New Southern Front
Edward ,   Savannah, USA   (03.10.11)
This article goes to show what others down through history already learned, and that is "peace" is a detriment to any country, especially so if it is run by "politicians" and NOT by Statesmen!!! Sure Israel SAVED a wad of money deactivating its Southern Border forces, but...when one is dealing with human nature, "peace" is never a guarantee for any length of time, especially dealing with the Muslim mindset. All we can hope for is that Israel has enough time and some decent leadership to get their Southern Front up to par militarily before they have to use what little they now have for it.
26. Egypt
Mark ,   USA   (03.10.11)
While I think the idea of land for peace is a very dangerous precedent, the deal with Egypt had been a stabilizing force in the middle east. For over 31 years, Israel was able to worry more about Syria, the palestinians, etc, and has largely neglected military planning and intelligence on their southern front. The problem is, Israel never made peace with the people, only a government. Governments can be changed. Israel should be mindful of this the next time she tries to make peace with a totalitarian regime, like Syria. Israel has to stop worrying what the world thinks. The only time the world is sympathetic to Jews, are when we are in ovens.
27. Your forgetting Iran.
PS ,   USA   (03.10.11)
Iran is expanding and moving into the Mediterranean. Not to mention Iran is now pushing the shia in the gulf countries to rise up against the sunni goverments. Egypt will be looking to the east and not north.
28. Egypt doesn't need western economic aid
observer ,   Egypt   (03.10.11)
Mubarak's family assets is estimated $40 - 70 billion while Mubarak's life savings was less $50,000 during his service as Vice president. The Mubaraks' asset equals more than all western economic aid received by "Egypt" during BOTH Sadat's and Mubarak's era.
29. Egypt is a shambles not a threat
EZ ,   USA   (03.10.11)
Egypt is a dirty, backward nation without a "big brother (former Soviets) to help them. Regardless of the poster "observers" assertion about mubaraks money (how the he k would he know!?) Egypt relies enormously on American aid. While Saudi Arabia may step in to help as an Allie, they won't unless they know Egypt will not present a threat. As for irans two rust bucket ships that hobbled into the med, that simply a JOKE! Irans navy? Gone in 30 seconds. The Iranians are frigging goofballs and will NoT be around much longer as a Muslim state. Yes: the IDF should always be overprepared for every potential threat. But Egypt, north Africa is not a true threat. The IDF is simply too powerful for any of them. And to boot: the IDF is always holding back when they fight because if they truly unleashed (as in the 2nd Lebanon war) they'd pay dearly diplomatically.
30. the IDF is seen as a counter terror group not an army
zionist forever   (03.10.11)
For decades the political and military establishment have been congratulating themselves for 1967 and saying we are unbeatable and at the same time cutting the budget, cutting down on training. We haven't had the strategic edge on our neighbors since Clinton we just like to believe we do. Certainly since oslo the IDF has been seen more and more by the politicians and even some in the IDF top brass that the IDF is a glorified anti terror force not an actual army that has to fight real wars. Lebanon was the wake up call we all needed. After Lebanon tank crews admitted they couldn't remember the last time they held a live fire exercise. Those things cost money and as we don't use tanks to fight real wars why waste money? The Merkava 2 which are kept in storage for if there is a major war. Their armor had not been getting regular upgrades to deal with more modern threats. If we are not going to fight a war we won't need to take them out of storage so why waste money improving their armor? Miluim had gone from being a regular thing to almost non existent. Why spend money training up reserves if they won't be needed because there won't be any full scale wars? The result in 2006 was many reservists had forgotten skills. They were having to buy their own body armor because the IDF hadn't bought enough to provide for a large scale call up. I remember reading somewhere once senior officers in the IDF saying armored warfare is a thing of the past and we should retire most the tank fleet and keep a small number in storage. Barak decided to buy F35 for two reasons. Iran and also he said he wanted Israel to be the first country in the region to have it. Nobody actually thought about the idea of using it for doing anything except knocking out Iranian nuclear facilities. Don't need $100 million stealth planes to bomb smuggling tunnels? In the 80s we dissolved the desert warfare units who fought in Sinai. We now had a treaty with Egypt why bother keeping the capability to fight them? Sadly things like Lebanon, the Mubarak toppling and even the Carmel fire to remind us we have been negligent and to take action before there is another and potentially bigger problem. Time to stop praising ourselves for what somebody else did in the past and assuming the current situation is never going to change and prepare for all forms of war on all fronts.
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