Opinion
Israel’s diplomatic dilemma
Alex Joffe
Published: 19.05.11, 00:26
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31 Talkbacks for this article
1. After the "Confrontation": makes no difference really......
tom ,   tel aviv   (05.19.11)
2. What?
Smith ,   TA, Israel   (05.19.11)
So this administration that killed bin Laden, sent 30,000 combat troops to Afghanistan and killed hundreds of Taliban in Pakistan is "uniquely weak" and Israel will have to choose between democratic America and totalitarian China? Is this guy selling what he's smoking?
3. This sort of fear-mongering has no place in politics
maya ,   australia   (05.19.11)
The Chinese are one of our biggest trade partners, and have been huge in australian buisness for two hundred years. This cold war mentality that sees the chinese people as somehow not in sync is delusional and insulting. Of course their interest is their own country, as with all our countries. But to infer they are not aware of the risks of dealing with countries like Pakistan is an insult to the collective Chinese intelligence.
4. china no help
steve ,   canada   (05.19.11)
china has interests in arab lands not israel china is no friend of israel
5. what bunch of nonsense..
Dave   (05.19.11)
What desicions? Does China have AIPAC? Will China supply all of the IDF needs as well as total policial cover in the UN? Will China be the address Israel is trying to influence its patron in attacking Iran? This guy is not a policial writer he is a comedian.
6. Don't worry, Sasha
Michael ,   Moscow, US   (05.19.11)
Sasha, too much of a drama! You position Israeli foreign politics as some kind of inevitable choice between US and China. But the truth is that there are many more other choices out there. Take EU, Russia, India or Japan to name a few. And even if Obonga will not execute a right to veto a declaration on palistinian state nothing is lost. It will give Israel moral authority to choose alliances without any coordination with his Big brother. In fact it will give Israel a chance to denounce an Oslo accords and to annex Judea and Samaria. As to 2.5B annual aid to Israel – Paks took 3.4B annually and harbored Bin-Laden. They will get their next trench on schedule without any strings attached.
7. you are right. must keep both with a len to china
ralph   (05.19.11)
8. China dependent on the US
Ilan ,   Ariel   (05.19.11)
In the absence of a trading partner like the US the goods produced in China would have no market and China no economy. Until it's local demand is able to effectively compete for locally produced goods China is only as strong as the importers of its goods. In terms of Israel there is little commonality with China. It is a big market but like Russia it has no respect for human rights and democracy plus it has imperial designs. China can never replace the US for Israel until it undergoes a fundamental change in ideology.
9. Hmm: more Jews in US: Decision Made! US!
EZ ,   US   (05.19.11)
Duh. As if there really is a dilemma concerning choice. Once again: a big bad wolf (Russia) knocking at the door but this time it is a paper tiger. Every economist knows that the bigger something is the less efficient it becomes. And if you must steal technology to try to get ahead you clearly are behind the innovative. The US has made the Chinese dependent on it with debt buying...winder what would happen if the US chose to erase the de t for security breaches by china? Bye-bye paper tiger: bellow 1.3 billion hungry people: not a good position for china. The US is dealing with the Chinese without firing a shot. China is destined to go down: its simply to big to compete with the fast attack approach of the US. Wait and see: at the last minute when china looks like it's going to take over everything, they'll crash and burn. Yes, they're extremely industrious but they're still way, way behind the US. No one can compete with the US: it controls the entire world stage with plans 50 yrs into the future. And Israel is it's closest military ally...not NATO. Which is why ISRAEL controls all of Americas communications security. It's also why there are more Jews in the US right now than Israel. We're good. Wouldn't want to be any any other countries than the US and Israel. 'Nuff said
10. There is no choice. Its USA or bust. Idont see a robustly
Jordan ,   Is Palestine   (05.19.11)
inhumane totalitarian gov like china changing easily
11. Israel has only one choice.
Li ,   USA   (05.19.11)
China is an important influence in the region, but the bottom line is that the only security option Israel has is a) a strong Palestinian state combined with b) a focus on diplomacy (based on economics) rather than military. Maybe China can be convinced it has a strategic benefit in maintaining Israel but it's not likely. A.Q. Khan wrote an article in Newsweek that sort of suggests a new post antiproliferation era in which nukes are used not as weapons but as boundary markers. The next step after that though might be scary. http://www.newsweek.com/2011/05/15/pakistan-s-a-q-khan-my-nuclear-manifesto.html
12. Before too long, US may become China...
William ,   Israel   (05.19.11)
if the debt to them isn't cleared up soon and US economy back on track. Otherwise, Israel will be open to selling them AWACS planes and Mandarin will be taught in most schools.
13. I am unemployed
David ,   France   (05.19.11)
but after reading this article, I am seriously thinking of becoming a writer "on history and international affairs". I think I have the talent this author displays in being able to churn out an endless stream of words that say essentially nothing. Let's contemplate the author's "conclusions", if you can even call them that. "The bottom line is that China only has its own interests at heart, not those of trading partners or the international system."...really? That's a shock. Most other countries in the world manage their affairs based on nothing other than a deep love for their fellow human beings. "Before too long, Israel may have to make difficult choices between its patron and its second largest major trading partner.".....really? I don't think China gives the US the warm fuzzies, but they seem to be able to carry on trading enormous sums of goods. Any takers?
14. Not clear..
Mark ,   USA   (05.19.11)
Spell out what the choices, in your opinion, will be.
15. Didn't make your case
Nina ,   NYC   (05.19.11)
Why does Israel have to chose? It's not like US doesn't trade with China, so I'm confused as to why Israel has to chose between China and US.
16. 20 months from now everything will be fine
Marco ,   Spain   (05.19.11)
The Muslim in Chief in the White House will be gone to the dust bin of history if not impeached for treason and executed before that.
17. Choose China !
Yossef   (05.19.11)
18. Way Behind The Curve. Green China!
Paqid Yirmeyahu ,   Ra'anana, Israel   (05.19.11)
Go back, at least, to the 2005.06 Israeli avionics (not American technology) sale to China that the U.S. required us to renege. Our best strategy for China, as with all other countries, is promoting their greening (kicking their oil dependency), which, in any case, is essential for every country's security and future in the face of the eventual depletion of oil. Accompanying this strategy, Israel has many technological products very desirable to China. But this can only happen when we develop the fortitude to firmly say "No!" to America's insistence that we remain dependent on America's favor. Green China! Paqid Yirmeyahu Paqid 16, The Netzarim, Ra'anana, Israel Israeli Torah-reverer Jew: Teimani, Baladi, Dor Dai Advocate for Mathematical Logic as Hermeneutic Halakhic Authority Welcoming all who choose to keep Torah (When questions to me go unanswered, they have refused to post it. Find our reply in our Web Café at www.netzarim.co.il)
19. Choices?
Cameron ,   USA   (05.19.11)
There are no Realpolitik choices for Israel. We are the only option for Israel. The Chinese would toss you to the wolves in a heartbeat to protect their growing access to Muslim markets, as well their flow of vital resources from such lands. Seriously distance yourselves from the US, and Israel is assured of finding itself a truly forsaken, isolated "siege state" whose days are numbered. There is no "China Card" to play. Attempt to do so, and your fate is sealed.
20. Not difficult
dave ,   dave land USA   (05.19.11)
The decision won't be difficult considering Israel is a whore state.
21. #8 An important point
Li ,   USA   (05.19.11)
No trade surplus or deficit can continue endlessly. As the U.S. slows imports China will begin producing for domestic use.
22. i dont get it
(05.19.11)
why does Israel have to ''choose'' between US and China? And when the writer says ''choose '' what exactly does he mean? Is he saying Israel should not trade with China? If so, why not? It does not seem to follow from all the words which seem to be about Pakistan and hi tech helicopters. Very confusing article.
23. Interesting
Ron ,   OC,US   (05.19.11)
However, Americas economy is over 2 times the size of China's. And, China's military while toublesome is not match for America's on any level. The day Arab oil is no longer king is the day the Arab states begin a catastrophic economic decline. And, that day is coming. Electric cars are coming, technology for shale oil is cominng on line, tar sands are yeilding ever more product and Israel has plenty of natural gas off shore. Israel just needs to give it urgency and develop the resourse. In the meantime buy a Prius, Cruise, Volt, Focus, Cicic, anything but an SUV.
24. china
spooky ,   birmingham uk   (05.19.11)
years ago a freind of mine was in army intelligece , and he said during the cold war years . russia we can understand , but the chinse are the ones to watch
25. Li : first China has to pay its workers a living wage
Ilan ,   Ariel   (05.19.11)
There will be no domestic market for China to sell to until local employers start paying decent wages to the workers. Someone who struggles to pay the bills has no option of buying consumer goods. Worse as the dollar slides due to the trade deficit Chinese goods become more and more expensive for the US market. In any case Israel knows that it will get less from China as an ally than it gets from Europe. It is only with the US that an alliance not solely based on profitability is possible. For all the problems that the US still thinks independently and is not following the whims of the oil suppliers.
26. Enough with this already
Tahl   (05.19.11)
This "dilemma" is a non-issue. In so many crurical aspects, and despite all of our differences - Isreal would never ever have a closer friend than Uncle Sam. The Americans have helped us militarily in 1973 (otherwise we wouldn't be here now), they've been helping us economically every year with the military aid and loan guarentees, they've been helping us diplomatically by thwarting countless anti-Israel UN resolutions, and advancing the crackdown on terrorist organizations and nuclear Iran, and they've been helping our security with top-notch military intel. America's steadfast commitment to Israel is tried and true, and would never come to be without the great affection and sense of common values of the American people toward us. Whereas China, the moment they'll spot a more lucrative option than us, would throw us by the wayside. And then we'll see just how cold it is out there, outside Uncle Sam's apron. What we should do is lie low and bite the bullet for now, in the hope the American people vote this administration out, a year and a half from now. We have no other real option, and anyone saying otherwise is only deluding himself.
27. Easy choice
Israel Israeli ,   Tel Aviv   (05.19.11)
It is an easy choice and doesn't depend on Israel. The Chinese need technology to increase their standard of living without destroying their environment. Israel is one of the few countries able to help the Chinese that don't want to humiliate or dominate the Chinese. Under Obama the US has become a colonial power that maintains its power by silencing opposition and brutal military force (Afghanistan, Libya) with no regard for international law. Obama has chosen to fight the Chinese, not by greater ingenuity, but by militarily controlling the Middle East oil the Chinese need. As a result, under Obama the US will need to sacrifice Israel to keep their grip on dictatorships like Saudi Arabia. As long as Obama is in power, Israel will have no choice but to work with the Chinese.
28. to#25. Dont worry Chinese can come to terms ..
ari   (05.19.11)
with it's people, you can see how many luxury homes and luxory cars are sold today there.MG is selling allmost more cars in China then in the USA. China is today after the States the biggest holder of High Tech Higways. So little by little China is building an infrastructure to become a real economic and stable power. To diregard a market of 1.300 million people is quite stupid. China is interested in many of the developments in medicine,agriculture and green technology developing in Isreal. There has not to be a choosing. For the moment the only line Veto to Israel regarding China is some military technology. But to compensate there is many more fields
29. #25, and as wages rise
Danny   (05.19.11)
They will move factories to other countries. That is why China is trying to force hi-tech companies to do more of their high value production there - that and the extra opportunities to steal the technology
30. between America and China
RC ,   USA   (05.19.11)
Time and time again the Jews have proven that they are their own worst enemy. After all the miracles God did for them, while taking them out of Egypt, they still decided to make a golden idol and put their faith and hopes on it instead of their true God. More than once has God taken Jews away from their land because of their stiff necked ways. China has shown intolerance against Chinese Christians, what do you think they will feel about Judaism. Christianity is founded on Judaism and many Christians that have studied the Bible and history support Israel because the scriptures say that the Creator will never give up on the Jews. Most Jews in America voted for a Liberal who made Israel make more concessions to the Arabs knowing that in the past those concessions only brought Israel an interlude from full scale wars but not true peace. Anyone who can see and hear what is said in the mosques knows that most Muslims would rather see Israel disappear than live in peace with them. As a partner, do you think China would not put even greater pressure on Israel when they have no connection at all with Judaism? Israel would be out doing itself in bad decisions if it made such a move, from the frying pan straight into the fire. The best you can do is spend some money showing and teaching the world the history of Israel from the time of Abraham to modern times so that when God judges the world they cannot say they were ignorant of the facts.
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