Opinion  Guy Bechor
Iran on verge of disaster
Guy Bechor
Published: 07.06.12, 17:13
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77 Talkbacks for this article
1. Wishful thinking
George ,   San Francisco, USA   (06.07.12)
Iran's economy is actually growing and is expected to be the 15th largest in the world by 2015 according to a recent Goldman-Sachs report. The sanctions are not having a major impact on Iran at all as it is find ways to go around them. Iran even has designed and implemented an alternative to SWIFT.
2. NOW is the time, to launch a FULL BLOWN
Chris Rettenmoser ,   Bayerisch Gmain Germ   (06.07.12)
attack on all of Irans illegal nuke installations and Busher...this will speed up the downfall of these rotten mullahs and finally free the Iranian people and all of us from that plague !
3. Increase the sanctions.
Reuven   (06.07.12)
4. #1, designed an alternative to SWIFT?
Danny   (06.07.12)
Is that sending someone with brown envelopes? The probability of someone knocking together a replacement for SWIFT alone with connections to the banks is zero but I guess there is always someone stupid enough to believe even the most idiotic, most clearly false propaganda
5. To: No. 1
Sarah B ,   U.S.A. / Israel   (06.07.12)
An alternative to SWIFT? Really? What? Trundling cash and gold aroud in suitcases? Opening a bank account in a bank that also hosts the bank account of a company you wish to do business? In violation of the U.S.'s FCPA and the U.K.'s Bribery Act? No company will think that doing business with Iran is worth the risk. China is reportedly contemplating insuring Iran's tanker vessels, but the Chinese economy has been falling steadily for the last year and one-half, and tanker insurance cover is prohibitively expensive. By the way, Morgan Stanley reported a decline in Iran's economy, a decline which is expected to descend even more sharply come July 1.
6. #1, That's wishful thinking
Avi   (06.07.12)
Iran will end like North Korea if it does not change its ways. The economy was already in a crisis before the sanctions, now they're crossing new red lines every day with much of the population entering poverty. 70% of its economy relies on oil and its local currency dropping like a stone while it's completely cut off from the international trade. Even those who buy oil from Iran like China and India do so while taking advantage of Iran and forcing her to agree to outrageous deals by selling oil not only at a low price, but by doing so in chinese and Indian currency, which are useless except in their country. Iran also is forced to send its navy of oil cargo ships to sea because it has no buyers. Iran will collapse soon.
7. #1. Are we singing from the same hymn sheet?
Tim ,   Brighton   (06.07.12)
Ive got a few more facts for you to digest...And I say it with no malice..just sheer bewilderment 1. Oil prices are nowhere near the levels of a year ago and oil revenues down by 25%. Sanctions will reduce oil revenues by a further 10-15% 2. Spending on 'nuclear research' and 'nuclear infrastructure' now approaching a staggering $170bn over the last eight years - for what return? 3. Real inflation approaching 30% 4. Money flows out of Iran approaching $2bn per month 5. Spending on Military equates to 18% of GDP 6. And most of all corruption is now almost on an industrial scale
8. I'm sure the ayatollah Cockamamie and his
(06.07.12)
republican guard generals Will be eating surf and turf, while the rest of the populous will be eating fido? After all the dog meat runs out they can feed Their People yellow cake and wash it down with Sweet Light Crude?
9. To: Avi at No. 6
Sarah B ,   U.S.A. / Israel   (06.07.12)
Agreed. Half of Iran's tanker fleet is being used as offshore storage, including some of their biggest tankers (known in the trade as VLCCs Suezmax; capable of holding one million barrels). Keep in mind, however, that you need to keep crews on the vessels, you need to continue to keep the engines running in order to maintain ambient temperatures in the tanks, you need to continue to provide fresh water and food for the crews -- in short, the ships are costing a great deal to maintain and are not being utilized to make money. Moreover, before refinement, oil is corrosive. Sooner or later, the tanker coatings will give out, and then Iran will have the nightmarish problem of figuring out how to dispose of huge quantities of unmarketable oil before the double-hulled tankers can no longer cope with the stress -- that's why all tankers need coating, and why most of the really big tankers need coatings replaced every three or four voyages. Supertanker voyages are not meant to hold crude oil for long periods of time -- 60 day voyages are about the longest. Iran's collapse is imminent. High unemployment, rampant inflation, dwindling oil revenues, severe shortages of basic staples and an increasingly unhappy population.
10. I dont believe a word of this aticle.Forget the fairy tale
Alan ,   SA   (06.07.12)
11. Even if that is true, won't matter
Kim Seung Ol ,   Seoul   (06.07.12)
North Korea becomes nuclear state even when it's people are starving, dying on the street. Want to bet Iran will be the second North Korea ? De ja vu. But the problem is, unlike North Korea that is trapped by us Koreans (south) and China. Iran is sorrounded by fellow jihadist like Pakistan and Afghanisthan, that would LOVE to do an armageddon just to bring total death to "enemies of Islam". That includes China that kills Uighyur terrorist, Russia that kills Chechnya terrorist, Israel, USA (duh), Pakistan GOVERNMENT, Afghanisthan Government, Saudi Government. 2012 will be probably be judgement day after all. Hope not though.
12. Pure evil
John Prophet   (06.07.12)
does not negotiate. The world is wasting its time trying with both Syria and Iran.
13. Follow-up to #1
George ,   San Francisco, USA   (06.07.12)
All those who question Iran's implementation of an alternative to SWIFT, Google, "Iran designs alternative system for SWIFT." As for Iran's economy, since I am not sure that they allow URLs here, Google, "WB says Iran's 2012 economy to grow despite new sanctions." Iran is encountering some problems because of the sanctions and its currency did lose value but, as I said before, it has found ways around the sanctions, it uses currencies other than the dollar for trade (including oil) and it has no problems finding customers for its oil. Using barter also solves many trade issue. In review, the idea that Iran is going to be like North Korea is simply stupid. As an example, Iran used to import about 40% of its gasoline. A few weeks after a ban on gasoline sales to Iran were imposed, Iran became self-sufficient in gasoline production. It will soon start exporting gasoline. Also, Iran is a major exporter of electricity to its neighbors.
14. units
jay ,   clark   (06.07.12)
I think you have an error with your units of measurement. A medium tanker can hold 250,000 barrels (42 US gallons/bbl). If Iran has 39 tankers, it has a larger storage capacity than 80K Bbls.
15. South America
SD Charger ,   San Diego   (06.07.12)
What about their relationship with South America? I thought they were partnering up there and were going to harvest plutonium together? I'm not an expert on economy, but Iran has sure made it through ALL of the sanctions ever thrown at them. People could take lessons on their black market trade - FACT.
16. #1, is that the same Goldman Sachs...
SamCanuk ,   Toronto, Canada   (06.07.12)
Hi #1, Are you refering to the same Goldman Sachs that forecast a spike in the value of Facebook immediately after the IPO? Doesn't sound like a source of reliable forecasting to me.
17. Nr 12. Accurate !.
Arn. ,   Sweden.   (06.07.12)
Expect a surprise !. Arn.Sweden.
18. Sanctions EPIC FAIL !
(06.07.12)
Obama's much trumpeted sanctions against Iran have failed miserably ! Countries like India, Turkey are all actively helping Iran easily bypass the half-hearted sanctions efforts. Successful use of barter system, routing payment thru tax-havens, smuggling oil & goods across border etc....all effectively nullifying the weak sanctions attempts. Obama is a liar & wimp, only interested in his re-election. Only fools believe him. Sanctions EPIC FAIL !
19. #1 That report - recent?
Amichai ,   Huntsville, US   (06.07.12)
Yeah, that report is from 2007! You're quoting an article written in 2011 by an IRANIAN NEWS AGENCY that references a 2007 report! You know, before sanctions against Iran were in place. And before inflation started rising over 14%. And also before Goldman-Sachs themselves had to borrow $782 billion to keep from folding, so I don't know just how accurate their financial outlooks really are. You're obviously just an uneducated pro-Iranian tool.
20. Yes, let them dry up and blow away.
Efraim ,   in Virginia   (06.07.12)
21. Collapse of Iran = ...
Obama ,   Amsterdam   (06.07.12)
We can only hope that with the economic downfall of Iran comes the end of the oppressive Ayatollah regime.
22. Can Please Someone Expalain To Me?
Ariel Ben Yochanan ,   Kfar Tapuah, Efraim   (06.07.12)
B"H Can please someone explain to me how exactly economics and nukes are related? Is North Korea booming or bouncing from famine to famine?
23. To # 1
Oleg ,   USA   (06.07.12)
"exporter of electricity to its neighbors" - are you kid'n? they claimed, they do not have enough electricity, that is why they need to become Nuclear state. Now they export electricity, Why do they need nuclear power then? the best was would be to bring this regime to its knees or let them collapse. Do you think anybody in the whole world would suffer< except them of course? but this would be their own choice. the more younger people would be unemployed there - the better. they will tear up those old ayatollas
24. Not sure that Niccolò Machiavelli said it at all.
michael redbourn ,   Arad Israel   (06.07.12)
25. Santa Claus
Michael Pielet ,   israel   (06.07.12)
I used to believe in Santa Claus.!
26. Hopefully this will bring the people out again
Chaya ,   Bat Yam   (06.07.12)
And this time will be able to topple the regime...once and for all!! FREE IRAN
27. Iran on verge of disaster
Mary Ryan ,   Kimball, USA   (06.07.12)
if you tell a lie long enough sooner or later you're going to believe it yourself...
28. To #23: Iran's electricity exports
George ,   San Francisco, USA   (06.07.12)
Google "Iran electricity exports." Iran has increased its electricity exports by 40% for the current year. Iran is planning to increase its electricity exports to Pakistan to 1,000 megawatts. It also plans to export electricity to Syria and even Lebanon. All these dire predictions about Iran are total nonsense. The sanctions have given a huge boost to internal industrialization. Iran is almost self-sufficient in most areas. So, just don't hold your breath.
29. To: No. 13
Sarah B ,   U.S.A. / Israel   (06.07.12)
1. Please name one major bank (or not-so-major bank) that has agreed to use whatever passes for Iran's "SWIFT" interbank financial transfers system. That's the other half of the puzzle, George, and by far and away the complicated half -- finding a bank willing to adopt and utilize your system. Thus far, evidently not a single foreign bank (major or minor) has. Although I suppose the Iranians can have a great deal of fun transferring funds between Bank Melli and Bank Markazi. To what effect, though? And if SWIFT were to declare that any participating bank will be denied the right to use SWIFT if they use any other system -- how many banks do you see abandoning SWIFT to accommodate Iran's system? SWIFT is a neutral service provider; Iran is not. End of story. 2. Please tell me how it is possible for Iran's economy to grow when its oil and natural gas revenues have declined so steeply? Do you think that sales of pistachio nuts, carpets (which are no longer hand-loomed), and third-rate caviar have picked up the slack? There is no tourism, anymore, either; don't forget that. 3. If Iran has "no problems" finding customers for its oil, why has it cut production by 15% in the first quarter alone. India has reduced its imports of Iranian oil by 30%. There happens to be a glut of oil on the world's markets; that's why the price has dropped below $100 per barrel for the first time in over a year. As to gasoline -- if Iran is so self-sufficient in gasoline production, why are they rationing gasoline at the pumps? And you have to have a market for your exports, and Iran's trading partners are drying up left and right. Your statement that Iran is a "major exporter of electricity to its neighbors" is patently absurd. Iran's cities endure major blackout periods on a daily basis. 4. You really need to climb down out of the clouds. Iran is stupidly and stubbornly clinging to the notion that the world will actually allow that insane regime to develop nuclear weapons. It seems that rather than accept the fact that its pursuit of such weapons will bring down the Islamic Republic, and abandoning its program (which is not for "peaceful purposes," and everyone knows it), Iran is prepared to sacrifice all.
30. The Evil Mullahs will Fall!
Dahood ,   London   (06.07.12)
This evil empire's turn is next after all the Arab revolts. This is a full-blown turn-around for peace and justice to reign in. The take- over from the scum of the earth is on.
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