Opinion  Guy Bechor
Iran on verge of disaster
Guy Bechor
Published: 07.06.12, 17:13
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77 Talkbacks for this article
31. You present a bleak overview, Sarah....
Cameron ,   USA   (06.07.12)
..of Iran's internal setting, but to the vital question: Do you honestly favor waiting for the sheer weight of Iran's internal difficulties to bring the regime & it's nuke drive to an end, or take the other gamble of a military assault? Which way you gonna throw the dice?
32. To: No. 28
Sarah B ,   U.S.A. / Israel   (06.07.12)
Oh, yes. Because the FARS news agency and The Teheran Times are such RELIABLE sources.
33. Erdogan is allowing Iran to use Turkish banks
PETER SM ,   AUSTRALIA   (06.07.12)
34. N Korea is totaly bust BUT threatens us all with its bombs
Alan ,   SA   (06.08.12)
35. Germany in the 30th was on verge of disaster
itay ,   israel   (06.08.12)
and it was a worldwide disaster
36. #1 People cry out to Ahmadinejad for bread as his motorcade
PETER SM ,   AUSTRALIA   (06.08.12)
goes by. Irans " peaceful nuclear program" must be a cold comfort to them as they go to bed on empty stomachs while the Mullah and Revolutionary Guard elites have their own economy
37. Iran the 3rd world country
Rolf Raess ,   Schweiz   (06.08.12)
Iran shuld develop the food and consumer industry insted of Uran. This is much more good for the peeple.
38. dream on little dreamer, dream on...
michael Pielet ,   israel   (06.08.12)
This article is totally absurd. The Iranians will never voluntarily give up their efforts to achieve nuclear weapon capability. The economic situation of the iranian people is irrelevant. What do they count for? Absolutely nothing. Sanctions are of absolutely no value. You Israelies are seriously deluding yourselves. Six million european Jews were waiting for the Great Powers to save them. They are still waiting, and waiting. Get reaL, wake up!
39. To: Cameron at No. 31
Sarah B ,   U.S.A. / Israel   (06.08.12)
No. I do believe that a military assault is necessary. Israel is more than capable of effecting crippling blows upon the Islamic Republic to which they cannot respond. I do know that Israel -- ever the loyal ally -- is trying very hard not to push Obama's hand in an election year. But make no mistake -- should Israel decide that the time for a military strike upon Iran has arrived, Israel will do the necessary. I think to you it is in some ways a matter of bluff and bluster and a great deal of polemic. I assure you that Israel takes a far more serious -- and existential -- view. On the one hand, Israel has no desire to cause human suffering. On the other hand, we're not going away. But the Islamic Republic has pushed Israel into a corner -- please do remember that Israel tried the most civilized way first -- and Iran is therefore the author of its doom. You see, Iran will never bring any nuclear might it may conceivably acquire to bear against the United States, or Europe. Or the Far East, for that matter. They would, however, see the destruction of Israel (an oft-stated Iranian goal) as the culmination of their perverse religious motivation. Israel's not going to let that happen. The fact of the matter is that Iran controls the dice. Stand down -- and we can let social and economic circumstances run their inevitable course in Iran. Refuse to stand down, and Israel will destroy the Islamic Republic, root and branch. Anyone who does not understand this severely underestimates Israel's resolve and, more importantly, Israel's capacity. There is one other factor: Iran would never risk a retaliatory strike against Israel. Their response is virtually guaranteed to be a strike against a United States asset in the Gulf; most likely a naval vessel. They believe that to their peril -- much the way the Nazi Germans foolishly believed that the Allies would abandon the Soviet Union and line up with Germany. That didn't happen then. It would not happen in the instant case. While Israel does not really want to draw the United States into yet another Middle Eastern conflict, we also recognize that Israel's existence is paramount to our goals and yes -- our goals do matter. We'll take the fallout, but Iran will be destroyed, one or another way. Everybody wins -- especially civilization.
40. Succumb or Fight when back is to the wall.
Roland Seener ,   London England   (06.08.12)
41. sanctions comprehensive failure
(06.08.12)
You have to ask Obama whats the use of "10% sanctions with waivers" ? Iran is mostly self-sufficient in food items, only few imported items like cars, gadgets etc are affected. Also has over $100 billion in cash reserves in tax-havens & gold bullion, which is enough for few years. A total naval & land blockade may have been more effective, but not such eye-wash sanctions. And since many countries are co-operating with Iran in thwarting the sanctions, they are clearly not effective.
42. Iran's collapse? FASTER please H.SHEM !
trumpeldor   (06.08.12)
43. Iran may strike First
Joe Sombrero ,   Usa   (06.08.12)
If they are desperate they could attack first just like the Japanese at Pearl Harbour.
44. IRAN USES RUSSIA AND CHINA
Iranian Jew ,   LA   (06.08.12)
as the cash cows. They don't even need to trade currencies. Russians and Chinese firms do all the transfers for them. Why ever would Russia want the sanctions to end? They must be laughing their heads off all the way to the banks.
45. After a chain of failures, success is unlikely
Yael Schlichting ,   Qiryat Motzkin   (06.08.12)
Even though I find the embargo important to contain the threat, we must not forget: The embargo against North-Korea yielded nothing. The embargo against Syria yielded nothing. The embargo against Iraq yielded nothing. There is a looooooong way to go and we must not forget, that there are several players on the field, each with its own stakes! Russia China Saudi-Arabia Turkey Israel the U.S. and even a few minor players. All of them are playing their own game with their own rules! Israel will be well advised, if it only relies on itself!
46. To: No. 41
Sarah B ,   U.S.A. / Israel   (06.08.12)
Actually, dear, Iran is not self-sufficient in food. In 2011, almost 50% of staple food items was imported (including, of all things, rice). The sanctions have been quite effective -- unfortunately, however, only against the Iranian people. The mullahcracy eats well, does not endure shortages, and have private generators in order to avoid those annoying times when the electricity goes out, for hours at a time, on a daily basis.
47. To: No. 37
Sarah B ,   U.S.A. / Israel   (06.08.12)
The people who run the Islamofascist Republic are not in the least bit interested in the welfare of the Iranian people.
48. To: Joe at No. 43
Sarah B ,   U.S.A. / Israel   (06.08.12)
Interesting point. Does the name Richard Sorge mean anything to you? Well, he was a Soviet spy, planted among the hierarchy in Germany, and knew well in advance of Pearl Harbor that the Japanese planned to strike a major United States military base. He duly passed the information along to his Soviet masters, who then duly passed the information along to the British. Winston Churchill, however, chose not to reveal the information. His absolute intent was to draw the Americans into the war, knowing that Britain acting alone was doomed. Some ally, the Brits, huh? Nearly 2,500 Americans perished in the bombing of Pearl Harbor. Because the British did nothing with vital information that they possessed. Puts a whole new meaning to the word "ally," doesn't it? Perhaps it is time for the State of Israel to take a page out of Churchill's book.
49. Sanctions?
Jake Stone ,   USA   (06.08.12)
And, still they build their nuclear dream! These religious radicals care more for the coming of their, so-called, godless figure, called the 12th Imam, than they do their monetary revenue. They want war...and to their ultimate detriment; no one said they were level-headed thinkers. They are like a child caught with their hand in the cookie-jar; regardless, how many times you warn them not before supper, they will continue to see how far they can push you until you are finally forced to put your foot down. Well, that foot is about to be dropped, and all the sanctions, in the world, are not going to change that inevitable fact. Like it or not: (sadly so) war is coming! God bless, Israel!
50. underestimating your opponet
israel israeli ,   tel aviv   (06.08.12)
Read #11 excellent post and don't underestimate Iran. They are far smarter than Obama, and have outmaneuvered him from the start. There has never been any doubt that the US can defeat the Iranians, and the Iranians know it. From the beginning, the Iranians haven't been playing to win (the US is too powerful) but to make the price the US pays too high. When the Iranians approach defeat (whether because of economic sanctions or US attack) they will try to unleash a revolution in the Muslim world. Will they succeed? Nobody knows, but they were lucky that Obama was such a fool. Let's not discuss Obama's support for Amhadinejad during the Green Revolution. Obama let Iran take over Syria, Lebanon and Sinai. Obama lost powerful anti-Iranian forces like Mubarak and Gaddafi and let Turkey join the Islamists. Obama insists on humiliating and antagonizing Pakistan and increases his butchery in Afghanistan. And of course, Obama's speciality is inciting hatred and anger at the Jews.
51. @ #48 I thought Israel already did...
Bob ,   NYC, USA   (06.08.12)
take a page out of Churchill's book. The Lavon Affair and the U.S.S. Liberty. You are right...."Puts a whole new meaning to the word "ally". It truly does.
52. Freedom of speech
George ,   San Francisco, USA   (06.08.12)
Ynet refuses to print my further comments. So, I won't bother attempting to respond to comments about my earlier remarks.
53. # 22 Ariel,economics and nukes,
J.K. ,   Brooklyn USA   (06.08.12)
if you don't give me what i want,i'll nuke you,i don't care about public or cnn opinion.
54. Iran is governed by a messianic regime,
J.K. ,   Brooklyn USA   (06.08.12)
like Germany in 1944,the Iranians are waiting for the 12th imam,who will come only after the world will be incinerated in a nuklear infermo,and this imam will establish islam as the world religion,so,sanctions or negotiations,will not solve the problem,the only way to free humanity from this hitleristic regime,is to bomb the leadership,the revolutionary guards,which is the ss of the regime,no need to put boots on the ground,the boots are already there,the Iranian people,who are sick and tired of this crazy regime.
55. There is no substitute for destroying Iran's nukes.
Chaim ,   Israel   (06.08.12)
Even if sanctions succeed in collapsing Iran's economy, it could still easily build nuclear bombs. Look at North Korea as an example of a state with virtually no economy and nuclear bombs. There is no substitute for destroying Iran's nukes. Let's do it now!
56. Iran on the verge of collapsing
Floriane ,   IsraĆ«l   (06.08.12)
Are you really thinking this? Are you really following the news or making up a story? Stop ignoring the reality or you are in for a great shock
57. SARAH STARTED THE WAR AND ENDDED
MAHMOOD ,   LONDON-UK   (06.08.12)
It for the readers.Reading her talk-back Number 39 one tends to wonder why the military personnel in Israel don't think the way she does.look at how she has managed to destroy Iran already? Of course,sensible people reading her talk-back will have had a hearty laugh.
58. Re Nr 16
Serge ,   Antwerp, Belgium   (06.08.12)
Same Goldmann Sachs that pimped Greece's accounts.
59. You are not knowing.!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Wang Zuli ,   Shanghai   (06.08.12)
We Chinese have a lot of power.
60. To: No. 57
Sarah B ,   U.S.A. / Israel   (06.08.12)
I'm glad that you are amused (although you are not sensible). I am quite certain that the assorted mad mullahs and ayatollahs in Iran are soiling their skirts.
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