Opinion
Why US won't attack Iran
Avraham Zilkha
Published: 02.10.12, 11:22
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57 Talkbacks for this article
1. Israel will have to do the dirty work on it's own
Noodles ,   Coney Island   (10.02.12)
sooner or later or just learn to live with psychos that have nuclear weapons and are ready to destroy it.
2. Obama and the Democratic party...
Jake Stone ,   USA   (10.02.12)
...are, by-and-large, a bunch of evil, godless FOOLS!!! They hate my country and Israel. Their socialistic agenda is as dangerous as the Islamic threat is--period!!!
3. The Muslim-in-Chief...
Z.Z. Coltrane ,   USA   (10.02.12)
...won't attack his own Muslim brothers!
4. Perfect summary of the current situation
Sarah B ,   Tel Aviv/London   (10.02.12)
The fact is the demographics in the United States has changed, making the Jewish vote and therefore the Jewish lobby less powerful, and it doesn't matter that the same people who bankroll Netanyahu are bankrolling Romney, that makes it worse Add to this the increasing influence of the far right in Israel, with political parties suchas a Shas and Beitenau Yisrael holding the balance of power holding views contrary to what many people in the United States see as standard freedoms everyone should have. And you have a perfect storm of problems for Netanyahu, and his fears when it comes to Iran achieving parity with Israel and what that actually means. Israel has lost influence in the United States mainly because of the current Israeli administration. and this in turn is caused by the Israeli political system. Netanyahu came 2nd in the election, and made a pact with the devil to ensure his name is on the door of the PMO's office. Netanyahu is sacrificing the long term future of Israel for his career.
5. Israel will continue to lose influence
spyguy ,   seattle usa   (10.02.12)
Regardless what party is in the whitehouse in addition to the reasons above: (1) WW2 is ancient history to most Americans and they feel no connection with Israel or what happened to the Jews during WW2 (2) over 65% of the people in the US are urban and tend to be liberal. Less than 25% are rural conservatives. In fact this is the last election where conservatives will have any voice. Yes there are conservative states, but they are less and less meaningful as whites become a small minority. (3) The US has FAILED for over 45 years to develop alternatives to oil (unlike China and many other countries) so is severely dependent on oil and must keep the places with oil happy, especially now that it knows it can not get oil by force. So the bottom line is making the existing president look weak because Bibi doesn't like him has backfired on Israel since most nations no longer fear the US.
6. Nice Mr. Zilkna
Palestinian   (10.02.12)
Had you indicated the Israelis to live in Palestine must make peace with the Palestinians, its a matter of time the immigrants will be facing the Mediterranean sea or if a turn around to face the eventuality.
7. If Obama decides to act and blowback if Romney
Avramele   (10.02.12)
A decision by Obama to act militarily will be perceived as unavoidable and in the American interest. Conversely, the same move by Romney would not only define his Presidency for the worse but tag him as captive of the much discredited neo-cons and the Adelson wing of the Israel lobby. In either situation the blowback for Israel and the Jews will not be good.
8. Well Spoken Mr. Zilkha
World Citizen ,   the world   (10.02.12)
It is not in the foreign policy interests of the United States to attack Iran. Iran is not a threat to the US. It is not even in the interests of Israel. Israel con protect itself without attacking Iran. But attacking Iran is in the interests of Bibi and the Likkud Party. These people need Israelis to fear everything in order to maintain control and divert your attention from the problems of your society. Issues like the high cost of food, the cost of purchasing a home or apartment, high taxes, low wages and a religious elite that controls much of your legal system. Haven't you had enough of the nonsense? Isn't it time to settle the Palestinian issue in a just and equitable manner? How long will Israel think that the only solution to its problems is fighting the countries that surround it?
9. bibi's mess
alexandralongisland ,   sands point ny   (10.02.12)
trhe fact that americans are now aware that the israel lobby AIPAC has the power to make politicians bow to and praise a foreign country is what made americans both repub and dem resentful of any talk by israel or its partisans of a war against iran for israel, evangelical support is mostly myth, baptist,lutheran,catholic,quakers have all or are at least voting to divest from israel, so cufi's 10,000 members are an outlier, Blame bibi for the fact that every american was made to watch obama desperately trying to convince israel not to attack,the sight of the american president seemingly powerless to stop israel from forcing us into a war amerivcans don't want SHOCKED many and only proved that AIPAC controls the fate of american polkiticians and can destroy an american presidents reelection if said president doesnt do israel's bidding, ALL that talk of "obama being vulnerable before the election" told americans jewish donors work with aipac and israel to blackmail american politicians along with the fact that it was implied obama didn't want to invade iran and would be able to resist jewish pressure after the election when aipac and jewish donors could no longer threaten his presidential reelection, we all know it,bibi pulled the curtain back and created a lot of resentment against jews in general, take a look around the blogosphere and the comments both right wing and left, you will wonder if ANY american supports israel
10. why US ..
# 4 Sarah B ,   sid   (10.02.12)
That is much better ! Good analysis without insulting others . Keep it that way for better communication please . I am sure you can do it .
11. need a better answer
israel israeli ,   tel aviv   (10.02.12)
Perhaps the US won't attack Iran, but Zilkha needs to give us a better answer why, or risk being accused of writing a Leftist political opinion under the guise of academia. No one (but Arab Firsters and Messianic Leftists) thinks that the US will attack Iran for Israel. The US might attack Iran for American interests. Ther fact is that with nukes, Iran can project power in Saudi Arabia, criticially damaging American interests. With nukes, Iran can complete a gas pipeline from the Persian Gulf, through Iraq, Syria and Lebanon to Europe, increasing control of Iraq, influence in Europe and weakening the American Arab allies. Zilkha thinks the Democratic party is anti-Israeli. This may be true, but is irrelevant to attacking Iran. Zilkha also thinks that Americans are weary of war. If this is true, does Zilkha see America collapse in the face of Iran? Does Zilkha prophesize the end of America? Or will the Americans rally to defend themselves?
12. of course US won't attack, and israel can't !
inconito   (10.02.12)
1beacause american people strongly oppose war 2- because US army strongly oppose war on iran 3- beacause the pentagon strongly oppose war 4- beacause war will not prevent iran from having deterrence ! periode for israel is another matter,BTW iranians new air defense systme will make an attack suicidal !
13. #1
inconito   (10.02.12)
in regard to iran, NO MATTER what israel do iran will have nukes !
14. No. 1: Seeing how it's Israel's dirty work...
esse ,   --   (10.02.12)
...it's only right that Israel do it. It is Israel that is paranoid about Iran. Every other nation realises that Iran is a third-world sh@thold that is too scared/incompetant to assemble a nuclear bomb. Iran has been bluffing all along, hoping that Israel would overreact and go around screaming that the "sky is falling." Israel has fallen for their ploy hook, line, and sinker. They've made Israel look like a fool and the whole world is laughing.
15. # 14
Eaglebeak ,   Left Coast, USA   (10.02.12)
Only the dumb ones are laughing.
16. Why US won't attack
sid ,   israel   (10.02.12)
# 10 is mine to Sarah B
17. Israel doesnt really need Americas help
Jayjay ,   Israel   (10.02.12)
A few mini nukes will irradiate those Iranian sites for the next 50 years! Obama is a traitor....he has no problems backing Al Qaeda in these Islamic revolutions, while sweeping Israel under the bus!
18. not all of us are weary
eric ,   us   (10.02.12)
ya well some of us are weary of his leadership. and some of us support israel
19. bottom line: war is not in America's interest
Seth ,   Oklahoma   (10.02.12)
an attack on Iran will only hurt america's interest in the middle east, relations with muslim world and worsens the american economy. Israel has no significant relationship with muslim world
20. Look how he protected the killers in Bangazi
Efraim ,   Virginia   (10.02.12)
He wouldnt admit that it was terror. He spoke about a silly film. In the end all we saw the truth. Do you really think Obama will attack his muslim brothers?
21. World Citizen
Mae White ,   Tel Aviv   (10.02.12)
"Israel can protect itself without attacking Iran"?! How exactly do you see that occurring? Your sentiments are nice, World Citizen, but unfortunately the facts on the ground don't support your rosy picture. Again, how is Israel expected to defend itself against a nuclear Iran at whose head stands a psychopath determined to exterminate the Jewsih state?!
22. Foolish #17
Sheik rattle & roll ,   USA   (10.02.12)
Israel claims it has the strongest military in the world and the best commanders etc etc etc. I suggest BIBI mobilize the worlds best army and go fight without us. Obama is not throwing anybody under a bus. If anything Israel would throw us under a bus by asking us to spend our money and spill our blood. Iran is no threat to the continental US and it knows if it ever "overtly" attacked us we would tear that country apart in weeks destroying it's military and infrastructure. Obama can't sell a war to the American people that will hit every American in the pocket dramatically. Americans pay far less for gas than Israeli's, pay less than half for cars and most other goods while earning a little more money. Higher fuel prices could break the back of the stagnate American economy. Go ask China and Russia to fight this one.
23. response to usa not going to war
mkiefer ,   miami usa   (10.02.12)
I think the premise is wrong because there is no mention of the current administration's affiliation and support of the muslim brotherhood and failure of american media to be factual , investigational and hold the administration accountable. If Romney is elected i am certain you will see a 180.
24. Neither Osirak nor Operation Orchard but a 3rd WW
Obsessive ,   Turkey   (10.02.12)
According to retired General Amos Gilad, Hezbollah now has 60-70,000 rockets. Syria plotted to Pass Chemical Weapons to Hezbollah. and Iran will attack everywhere. A report written by an Iranian-American scientist with expertise in industrial nuclear-waste management, notes that a number of Iran’s sites are located directly atop or near major civilian centers. Toxic plumes released from a strike would reach the city center within an hour, killing or injuring as many as 70,000 and exposing over 300,000 to radioactive material.
25. #14, said same thing about DPRK
Danny   (10.02.12)
and that their nuke program was peaceful etc.
26. Thoughtful article, but Persians are not Arabs
Alan ,   Canada   (10.02.12)
The article is full of good reasons why the US would prefer a non military resolution of the Iranian nuclear problem. One of the main objectives of Obama's foreign policy as stated in his Cairo speech was to improve the US image in the Muslim world & attacking Muslim Iran would not help at least in the medium term. However, Persians are not well liked by many Arabs for ancient historical reasons & for more recent religious & military reasons. One can assume many Sunnis would not be displeased to see the Iran of the ayatollahs bite the dust, especially after seeing how Iranians are helping to commit the crimes in Syria against their coreligionists. Saudis remember the Iranian past attempts to overthrow their regime during Mecca pilgrimages. If Iran was to suffer a severe setback or a regime change subsequent to the setback, many Arabs would possibly enjoy more peaceful times less troubled by the paid terrorists & propagandists of the fanatics in Tehran. While comparisons are rarely perfect, one can look at what happened after the US defeated Japan & Germany in WWII. Did not these two countries become allies of the US?
27. Obama UN speech: no containment is accepable
Alan ,   Canada   (10.02.12)
Unless Obama's speech at the UN was meaningless pre-election rethoric, he clearly stated that containment of a nuclear Iran was not an option. Since the determination of the Iranian leadership is not in question & succeeding in its objectives is one of the critical factors of its political survival, the US will soon be faced with the Red Line it has so often kicked down the road. The US could still escape keeping with its commitment to stop Iran by suddenly declaring, surprise!, Iran is a nuclear power & it is too late to do anything about it.
28. #14
Anshel ,   Toronto, Canada   (10.02.12)
To refresh your memory, the world laughed at Hitler too, Chamberlain believe din diplomatic solution, to appeasement, just give Hitler what he wants, little but of Czechoslovakia, militarize demilitarized Alsace, etc.. until it was too late and world was on fire, including Pearl Harbor and 6 million Jews perished. History seems to repeat again. Israel will have to act alone, whatever the costs will be, compering to total annihilation of State of Israel as "promised' by this mad regime in Teheran, will be negligible. This is the sad reality, the Jews were always alone and the stupid, blind misguided American liberal Jews better smarten up, because the freedom we enjoy is thanks to one think, State of Israel and the amazing IDF. Thanks G-d, I live in Canada where we do not course at the religious Jews, where the support for Israel and its leaders is all time high. If the liberal American Jews do not know that without (at least) religion and faith, we are nothing, we will not survive, they just have to look at the rate of intermarriage in USA. It is as close to self destruction, as one get to.
29. Democratic party is not pro-Israel
David ,   USA   (10.02.12)
As every Israeii knows but 70 percent of ignorant American Jews vote Democratic. Only the Republican party loves Israel and over 90 percent of them support ISrael. The Dem party has greatly changed the last decade with far left wingers, more minorities who side with Arabs. Too bad dumb Jews continue to vote for Obama and other left wing loons who do not care if the state is destroyed.
30. War in Iran
lightharry ,   New York   (10.02.12)
If Obama did attack Iran then you would be the first to insult him for doing so.
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