News  Elections
Poll: Likud Beiteinu down to 32 Knesset seats
Yuval Karni
Published: 18.01.13, 12:38
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33 Talkbacks for this article
1. Polls
Ellen ,   Israel/NYC   (01.18.13)
Anyone who has done any studies in statistics will tell you that polls are the least reliable method of data collection. So much depends upon the wording of the question --unknown to us--and the mood of the respondent--be honest or lie through their teeth. It is not surprising that YNET, a left site is now, as the end draws near reporting this upsurge in the parties they support. This too is politicking. A certain percentage of people vote blind. They do not know the issues, they do not know who stands for what BUT they DO want to be able to say they voted for the 'winner" Polls like this, sponsored by left organizations are an attempt to get the left to be the "winner" and influence more voters to vote left! I urge all of you--use your brains, think and vote for the party you believe in. Do not allow yourself to be manipulated by the media.
2. I think the Israeli PM wil remain PM.
Arn. ,   Sweden.   (01.18.13)
At this critical Political World- moment, i believe, another result would be a catastrophe for Israel. Arn.Sweden.
3. Polls
Bill Stein ,   USA   (01.18.13)
This was a left wing poll. The Maariv poll came out the same day and showed 37 for Bibi. In the US polls in the last election half of the polls showed Romney would win and the other half showed Obama
4. mina tzemach has a history of getting it wrong
Golan ,   modiin   (01.18.13)
other polls tell a much different story: 66-65 Right 54-53 Left, "Center", "Arabs", "single issue parties"
5. Israel on verge of leftist coalition during obama era
jeff ,   nyc   (01.18.13)
An absolutely nightmare scenario. Netanyahua has avoided enormous pressure that labor leader won't avoid. Obama in oval office meeting with netanyahu gave him 13 demands including allowing PA police to carry guns in jerusalem. People get on bibi for everything but they will miss him when leftists say how high for every obama demand to jump. Livni was so excited when obama got elected. Obama a man that wants to win credibility in arab world by distancing himself from israel. Israel voters will continue to vote for small parties on the right that won't get 2 percent and will reduce the right wing bloc to under 61 seats meaning netanyahu won't be picked by peres. But I keep reading voters say netanyahua will be pm anyway so they will waste their votes on small parties that won't get two percent or will vote for yesh atid. Israel voters will come to regret this decision for a long time and will pay for a long time like the u.s is paying now. Wake up!
6. The poll
avi ,   israel   (01.18.13)
Another obviously left-skewed poll, which being such, does not worthy of attention. Bibi will win, without doubt, with much better margin than what the people, who stand behind that poll, are "dying" to see materialized.
7. Polls are always wrong when you disagree with their results
Just ask Mitt Romney and Karl Rove. What polls often get right is the arc of turnout and the last minute movement toward one camp or another. Looking at the aggregate of polls in the last week, turnout is going up among Ashkenazim and Arabs and the left is moving incrementally. If the combined Zionist left beats the combined Zionist right (Haredim don't count as Zionist and fascist OTZMA lyisroel really shouldn't) Peres may turn to Labor first to attempt a government. Public sentiment will quickly turn towards call for a national unity government of Likud, labor, Livni and Lapid without Haredim and Bennett leading the opposition.
Anton ,   East Jerusalem   (01.18.13)
9. Like I told U, 4 those 2 the DIVORCE is around the CORNER...
Big Mouth ,   On the face   (01.18.13)
Wait and C!
10. What A Waste Of PPE
Ariel Ben Yochanan ,   Kfar Tapuah, Efraim   (01.18.13)
B"H - What a waste of PPE (Posting Power & Energy). Don't vote, don't put your hopes and aspirations in knesset, a non-Torah institution on the Land! Don't forget, we voted for Hashem, under the Mount in Sinai and that we voted for Him for all generations! On this upcoming secular feast holiday let's remember that this secular State did not have a day of peace since its establishment on G-d's Holy Land, so let's show Hashem our love and our fear of Him and not of this State, of its knesset, of its supreme court or of its IDF and as promised, He will surely show us His appreciation by removing the enemies He puts up for us, to test us.
11. Predicting a narrow right wing government
Avramele   (01.18.13)
Bibi and current partners will probably get to their low 60's number of mandates in which case he'll try and woo Lapid as his Non-crazy grownup fig leaf. Lapid as a stalking horse for Olmert will turn to his mentor for advice. Mmm, new elections by Spring 2014 anyone? talkback #7 has an interesting though less likely alternative scenario.
12. yuval kani
mohson   (01.18.13)
likud and habeyt together have 46 seats and 5 parties on the left have the same number in the poll as reported by kani. Of course kani is tilting towards the oslo crowd assembling 5 parties on left to equal likud beitenu and jewish home. Fear is a terrible thing, and it causes people to fight, tomove forward, to shrink, to concede, to run around begging obama and ban kimoon and the wretch ashton for support. In this crowd come the usual peres, beililn, olmert, llivni, lapid andyechaimovtich crowd. How can anyone strike a reliable deal in thhis atmosphere. israel has to be firm, realistic and to some degree cold blooded. the reality is what mursi says- he hates israel, is waiting, and arabs will take concessions and created more hamastans until israel implodes. Israelis who vote for oslo are pathetic given its history and who trust arabs are stupid, plainly stupid. If these elections are close, and likud wins, then it is a signal for bibi to start cleaning out his office and make way for new leaders like shamir, bennett and lieberman.Israelis are sick of his waffling and indecision, his big mouth and small talk. Though he is better than that nut job livni or olmert reporter lapid, he was made to talk, not lead and israelis are tired of him and that's what the polls mean period.
13. This is Democracy in Action
sam ,   Eastbourne   (01.18.13)
Israel is devided but united - Who do you vote and support make no difference to your vote - If you believe in Politicians Spiel before elections - you believe in anything including the world is not round
14. re #2
NIgel ,   London   (01.18.13)
no a disaster for Israel would be to have a despot leader who allowed its army to massacre tens of thousands of its own civilians. Or one which brought in a government whose leader called the citizens of neighbouring countries dogs and sons of pigs, or even one which looked to forcibly expel minorities. Israel is a democracy and its residents have the right to decide their own future. The people of Israel are the ones to decide what is best for the country not meddling outsiders
15. I want you to publish a list comparing the present
Moshe ,   Usa   (01.18.13)
numerical representation of the governing parties against the forthcoming elected representatives. And include a description characterizing the aims & nature of each party. I want to know how this election shows a change in the minds of the Israeli voter. I thank you in advance. Moshe
16. Jeff, nyc #5: Don't understand your logic
Steve   (01.18.13)
You "keep reading voters say 'netanyahua' will be pm anyway so they will waste their votes on small (principled land of Israel / Zionist) parties..." etc. One of those small parties according to this piece might get as many as 12 mandates. Aren't you assuming Netanyahu will form a left-leaning coalition with Labor, Yesh Atid, Hatnua, Meretz and Kadima rather than a stronger right-leaning coalition with Habayit Hayehudi, Otzma LeYisrael and some religious parties? If that is the case, why not vote for a principled, small right-leaning party rather than voting for Likud? The choice as to whether Prime Minister Netanyahu is willing to stand up to Obama will be up to PM Netanyahu who you seem certain will form a far-left coalition with his Likud party.
17. Translation giant right wing win ahead
Mordechai   (01.18.13)
Basically the poll results say Likud will win almost twice the seats as the next largest party and be the only large party in the Knesset. Peres is a radical leftist but he isn't going to give a tiny left wing Party an attempt to put together a government. Likud is not going into Livni's government no matter how the left fantasized about it. Livni is publicly begging Bibi to let her in the Cabinet and he is laughing at her knowing he has an easy time putting together a coalition without the left. Together with the religious parties he will probably have close to 70 seats as Israeli polls always underestimate the strength of the right (How many polls predicted Peres winning elections he always lost?)
Steve   (01.18.13)
You do know writing in all capitals is screaming? You say Bibi wants to annex all the West Bank thereby making 3.5 million Palestinians voting citizens. Where can we find that goal anywhere, in news reports or in the Likud party platform? You do know Anton, people can read virtually anything (true or false) on the world-wide web.
19. Nr.14.
Arn. ,   Sweden.   (01.18.13)
I fail to see any leader in Israel with equal Stature as the Israeli PM. And that is what I meant with catastrophe, a leader which cant prevent Israelis from being massacreed by outside forces. By the way - you seem to be some medddling outsider yourself as you did put it, however, Israels future will according to the Word of HASHEM, affect the whole World and, therefore I cast my opinion. God bless Israel with Victory over all Her Foes, Outward as well as Inward Ones. Arn.Sweden.
20. kadima is the key
zionist forever   (01.18.13)
In the early days everybody was zig zagging all over the place and as time went on things slowly started to adjust to something more realistic so short of something unexpected happening or swing voters choosing another party In large numbers this is probably what it will look like which is worrying for Bibi because Livni or Lapid will be essential to getting the minimum 61 seats and they are ambitious and will demand a high price. It will also be a very unstable coalition Likud has people from both far and centre right Bennet is far right Religion hating Lapid Haredi Livni who is bitter because she felt Bibi stole the premiership from her last time. Its a recipe for disaster, be very lucky if the government can survived 2 years. If he got rid of the haredi and just took on Livni & Lapid he could get 62 but it would also put alot more power in the hands of Livni & Lapid which he does not want to do. I think the key here is Kadima & Otzma LeYisrael. Their survival depends on being in the coalition so they are in less of a position to make demands so will be content with less and at the same time give Bibi a coalition of 66 and it would be more stable. Bibi still wants Lapid & Livni but on his terms and only if he has 61 without can he do that.
21. #8 Wake up your brain. Want a 9 mile waist for Israel????
Chaim ,   Israel   (01.18.13)
#9. I suggest you wake up your own brain before asking others to wake up. Do you want a 9 mile waist (15 minute tank ride) for Israel??? Your demographic scare statistics are a proven hoax. Jews are a growing majority, in Israel, including Judea and Samaria. Moreover, Judea and Samaria legally belong to Israel. The solution is to pay "Palestinians" to leave as most want to.
22. vote lapid because he's hot
Marcie ,   Michigan   (01.18.13)
I'm not an Israeli, well I'm not even Jewish. but on cnn they had a quick segment on yar lapid. and I was completely aghast. he is so amazingly good looking. I've always liked Clooney until I saw him. now I'm following Israeli elections because I can't get enough of lapid. he is sooooooooo gooood looooking!!!! you guys are so lucky that you might have a president like lapid. if he becomes your president, ill start supporting Israel just because he's gorgeous(drool drool). I'm literally in love with him. I'm only 23 but it doesn't matter. please vote lapid. you would gain more supporters from girls that's for sure. he really is stunning.....marcie
23. Don't believe any of these leftist polls!!!
Jake Stone ,   USA   (01.18.13)
The center-left is going to lose big, and they know it!
24. Anton East Jeusaelm no 8
Cool down anton, and take glass of cold Israeli beer to relax. Very simple as the Arabs have harassed their Jewish in Arab Countries, some Jews left and the rest were expelled. Now we can do the same thing, but now Jews will harass the Arabs until they leave our Country. Arabs are not welcome in our land. Jews for Israel Arabs for Arabia.
25. A yummy serving of humble pie
Sam ,   Kfar Saba   (01.18.13)
for the charming Bibi Nethanyahu and Avigdor Lieberman. Enjoy and Shabbat Shalom.
26. #1, I don't trust any of the political parties
Rich ,   Toronto, Canada   (01.18.13)
because they don't represent the will of the Israeli people. They serve only the wealthy elite who don't live in the country. So much for democracy.
27. to zionist forever on Otzma L'yisroel
avramele   (01.18.13)
If Otzma L'yisroel is in the next government the fig leaf of a democratic right wing government is gone.Lieberman's putinism is bad enough. Israel's government withthese thugs will look like a greek junta (which it may anyway). what portfolio would you give them? Who would want to be the same room as them given their racist anti-democratic kahananism?
28. wishful thinking
tom ,   toronto, canada   (01.18.13)
the 15% undecided represent 18 seats, which is an entire medium-sized party. so whether likud is up or down one or two seats shouldn't get anybody too excited. wait 'till the fat lady sings...
29. encouraging
Giora Me'ir ,   USA   (01.18.13)
This is the second straight poll to show a 63-57 split. Unless Netanyahu is prepared to change directions, and no non-right party becomes a fig leaf, Likud will be at the mercy of UTJ and Shas, and could not afford the defection of all, or part, of those parties.
30. To # 21 Chaim, the question is
Stan ,   Israel   (01.18.13)
Do YOU have the money to bribe 3,000,000 Palestinians ???
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