There is no chance to see the political & military leaders willingly give up any power. They need to constantly appear to their internal & external opponents & enemies as invincible. Otherwise they are sooner or later at risk of being forced to account for the many crimes & atrocities they have ordered to stay in power by violence & fraud. In addition they have the religious ambition to subvert the Sunni Arabs by propaganda, & military supremacy. So, given the weak efforts of the West to even contain Iran's external ambitions, only an internal revolt or a disastrous economic situation could bring down the regime. Both these situations are unlikely to occur any time soon.

"The West should therefore be guided by the principles of strengthening the reformist camp and broadening its public support by improving the economic conditions in Iran and simultaneously making sure that the conservatives do not proceed in developing the nuclear bomb once sanctions are lifted." All outlined, focused upon for decades and proven to be unattainable, which is why the SOD followed up Obama's pie in the sky assessment with an assessment of his own: "Trust cannot be part of the equation."

This is a misleading analysis. It supposes that there is a real Reform force in the Iranian government. It does not explain why and how Khameini is now sanctioning an agreement with the West. Clearly he is operating together with Rouhani in the process of duping the West. This article is another contribution to the campaign of duping the world as to the nature of the fundamentalist regime in Iran.

unless a miracle happens (and i do not believe in miracles) the one and only way to stop that deranged "leadership" from getting the nukes is BY FORCE! and must be done soon, or not only israel will suffer, but the western world as a whole too.

Dear Professor Halabi , I am not sure your article is correct on several grounds as follows : - It has been a conventional western long held belief that Iran is governed by the two camps , one very conservative and anti western and the other is pro western and democratic and anxious to embrace liberal economic regime. This view is in inaccurate since the RC rules as enshrined by the constitution on all key matters and appoint key functionaries of these organs of the government .The president is somewhere between an elected president with few powers and a prime minister to run the executive branch .  - There is bounds to be different opinions and emphasis for every decision  but to conflate that with unwarranted division is wrong and is lead to mistaken policy choices . - There are many divisive issues in the Iranian political system , for one the revolutionary guards  has grown in importance to the point of resisting any reforms while many in the elites are keenly aware of the danger of path dependency  and  corruption and especially public role in the economy and the well hidden difficulties in the crucial oil sector ( there are hints even by Rouhani and more emphatic ones by the oil minister ) .  - Iran is still revolutionary state in some respects , one symptom is the missionary  zeal is still operating . The Iranian elites know that the Sunni world is almost pacifist and chose evolutionary development path. What actually impelled them to accelerate their ambitious missionary zeal is the US emasculation of Iraq , and then to add insult to injury to negotiate its fate with the Iranians .  - Iran is partly " run " on the psychological dimension of how it sees it self in the region , the Persians , not necessarily the Iranians have an over reaching  hubris ,  and that is why partly the see in Israel and Turkey competitors  in the regional hegemonic policies . The uneasy mix between the ideological component and the nationalistic is widely underestimated by many in the west . - The pressure in Iran is high at many fronts , for one , the revolution failed to deliver the goods especially since the Persian culture is materialist of not out right hedonistic for ages . for second , the unease between the nationalistic and ideological is tempered by the demographic composition as the  ruling Persians are no more than 50% and at  mainly the central region ( notice certain articles  of the constitution  related to minorities rights are  still suspended until today ) .  I hope your article is not an attempt to mislead on the nuclear issue .